Bucks vs Thunder Predictions & Props to Target (Feb 12 on Prime)

• All-Stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo are out
• The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last five games played on the second night of a back-to-back
• Our expert analysis finds the best bets for Bucks vs Thunder

Two contenders navigating significant roster adversity collide tonight as the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Milwaukee Bucks. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 pm, ET (Amazon Prime).

From a handicapping perspective, injuries define the betting landscape. With MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander already ruled out, the Thunder’s reliability as a home favorite is further threatened by the uncertain status of Jalen Williams, who exited Wednesday’s game against Phoenix with a hamstring injury.

The Bucks are still without Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf), but getting contributions from others. Cam Thomas scored 34 in their 116-108 win over Orlando, and trade acquisition Ousmane Dieng. Can they keep it going tonight at OKC?

We analyzed trends, odds and the player prop market to find the best bets for Bucks at Thunder.

Bucks vs Thunder Prediction & Best Bets

The oddsmakers have installed the Thunder as heavy 12.5-point favorites, a line that feels aggressive given the injury cloud hanging over the team. While Oklahoma City has gone 3-0 ATS in the last three head-to-head meetings, the specific situational spot tonight heavily favors the road underdog. Both squads are playing the second leg of a back-to-back, a scenario where their recent efficiency diverges drastically.

The Spread: Milwaukee +13.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

This double-digit number appears inflated given Oklahoma City’s depleted roster and their struggle to maintain intensity in fatigue spots. The data reveals a glaring vulnerability for the Thunder in this exact scenario: they are 0-5 against the spread in the second half of a back-to-back over their last five attempts. When isolating for venue, the trend worsens, with the Thunder going just 1-7 (.125) ATS at home on zero days rest.

Conversely, the Bucks have demonstrated resilience under similar scheduling stress. Milwaukee is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the second half of a back-to-back over their last four opportunities. Furthermore, they have embraced the underdog role, going 4-1 (.800) ATS in their last five games when catching points. With Gilgeous-Alexander out and Williams potentially limited or absent, asking the Thunder to cover a large number against a team that has successfully integrated instant-offense scorers like Cam Thomas is a precarious proposition.

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The Total: Under 214.5 (-110 at Bet365)

The smart money points toward the Under. The absence of both Antetokounmpo and Gilgeous-Alexander removes significant transition scoring and free-throw generation from the equation. While Milwaukee has seen the Over hit in 11 of their last 30 games, their current offensive identity without Giannis relies heavily on jump shooting rather than rim pressure. The Thunder, possessing the league’s top-rated defense, will likely try to turn this into a muddy, half-court affair to protect their shorthanded rotation.

Bucks vs Thunder Best Player Props

Bucks vs Thunder Betting Trends

• Bucks Resilience on Zero Days Rest: Milwaukee has thrived in fatigue spots recently, posting a perfect 4-0 ATS record in the second half of back-to-back sets over their last four attempts.
• Milwaukee Thrives as the Dog: The Bucks have performed well when given points, holding a 4-1 (.800) ATS record as underdogs in their last five games.
• Thunder Fade in Back-to-Backs: Oklahoma City has struggled significantly on the second night of back-to-back sets, currently sitting at 0-5 ATS in this situation over their last five tries.
• OKC Home Struggles with Fatigue: The Thunder’s inability to cover with no rest is even more pronounced at Paycom Center, where they are 1-7 (.125) ATS in the second half of a back-to-back over their last eight home games.
• Bucks Trending Under: Despite recent offensive outbursts, the betting market has found value on the Under, which has cashed in 19 of Milwaukee’s last 30 games (63%).

Public Betting Splits

The NBA public betting data for tonight’s clash reveals a public consensus that is overwhelmingly backing the home team and expecting points, despite the high-profile absences.

Spread and Moneyline

The betting public has shown little hesitation in backing the Thunder. On the Moneyline, Oklahoma City is drawing a massive 94.3% of the bets and 82.9% of the money, indicating that recreational bettors view this as a safe home win.

The spread market shows a slight sharp-vs-public divide. While the Thunder are attracting 59.1% of the spread bets, the money is relatively balanced at 59.2%. This alignment suggests that the average bettor is undeterred by the double-digit line. Our recommendation on Milwaukee (+12.5) places us on the contrarian side, fading the consensus that expects a blowout.

Total Market

The most significant divergence between our analysis and public sentiment lies in the Total.

• Over: 88.7% of bets / 93.1% of money
• Under: 11.3% of bets / 6.9% of money

With 93.1% of the handle backing the Over, the market is aggressively betting against a defensive struggle. Given the removed offensive ceilings of these depleted rosters, the Under (215.5) represents a massive fade of the public, capitalizing on a market that may not have fully adjusted for the slower pace likely to be dictated by the defenses.

Thunder vs Bucks Stats Comparison

Key Matchup: Chet Holmgren vs. Bucks Frontcourt. With the stars sidelined, Chet Holmgren (17.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG) becomes the focal point. His ability to stretch the floor and protect the rim (2.4 blocks) anchors OKC’s defense. On the other side, Myles Turner (12.3 PPG) provides spacing, but Bobby Portis (15.0 PPG) is the critical variable. Portis must score efficiently in the post to prevent the Bucks’ offense from becoming one-dimensional.

Thunder vs Bucks City Injury Report & Impact

Oklahoma City: Jalen Williams is the key variable. After leaving the game against Phoenix on Feb 11 with a hamstring issue, his potential absence would leave the Thunder without their two primary ball-handlers. This would force Cason Wallace and Luguentz Dort into playmaking roles, funneling usage aggressively toward Holmgren.

Milwaukee: Without Giannis, the offense shifts to a perimeter-centric approach. This benefits volume scorers like Cam Thomas, who recently dropped 34 points, and trade acquisition Ousmane Dieng (17 points vs. Orlando). The loss of Taurean Prince hurts the Bucks’ ability to match up with OKC’s athletic wings.

Bucks vs Thunder Odds

Odds as of February 12, 2026, at 1:45 PM ET from consensus odds.

The oddsmakers have positioned the short-handed Thunder as significant favorites, reflecting the massive home/road efficiency gap. The total is set relatively low at 215.5, acknowledging the defensive intensity and missing firepower.

Implied Probabilities and Payouts

Based on the current moneyline odds, the vig-free normalized probabilities are:

• Oklahoma City Thunder Win Probability: \~83.8%
• Milwaukee Bucks Win Probability: \~16.2%

For bettors eyeing the moneyline, a $20 wager on the Thunder (-685) would yield a profit of just $2.92. Conversely, placing that same $20 wager on the Bucks (+489) to pull off the upset would return a profit of $97.80.

Line Movement

The Thunder opened as -13.5 favorites, but the line has ticked down to -12.5. This move toward Milwaukee likely reflects the uncertainty surrounding Jalen Williams’ status and respect for the Bucks’ recent 4-0 ATS run in back-to-back situations. The total opened at 214.5 and has seen a slight increase to 215.5, suggesting that while bettors respect Cam Thomas’s scoring, the market remains wary of the defensive capabilities at Paycom Center.