Bulls vs Raptors Pick, Player Props & Best Bets for Thursday

• Despite a massive roster overhaul at the trade deadline, the Bulls hold value as 8.5-point road underdogs against a Raptors squad that is just 5-13 ATS when favored
• Raptors forward Brandon Ingram is positioned to clear his scoring prop of 21.5 points
• Our analysis breaks down Bulls vs Raptors and recommends the best bets

The new-look Chicago Bulls travel to Toronto tonight, their first game since trading Nikola Vucevic and Coby White. Tip-off is set for 7:30 pm, ET (Amazon Prime Video and SportsNet).

Bettors are eyeing a complex landscape. The new-look Chicago roster, now featuring acquisitions like Jaden Ivey and Anfernee Simons, faces an immediate chemistry test on the road. They remain severely shorthanded with playmaker Josh Giddey ruled out due to a hamstring injury. Conversely, the Raptors, led by All-Star Scottie Barnes and recent acquisition Brandon Ingram, are looking to stabilize their playoff positioning. Toronto appears healthier — save for the absence of center Jakob Poeltl — but the market often struggles to price teams undergoing radical transformation like Chicago. This creates a volatile but intriguing scenario for handicappers analyzing how the new pieces will fit against a stabilized home favorite.

We analyze Bulls vs. Raptors and offer expert betting advice.

Chicago vs Toronto Prediction & Best Bets

Best Bet: Chicago Bulls +8.5 (-109) at DraftKings

The Bulls’ roster barely resembles the one that started the season, but the betting market might have over-adjusted the spread based on the perception of “depletion.” The Raptors have opened as substantial -8.5 favorites, a price point where they historically underperform.

Comprehensive handicap analysis reveals a distinct struggle for Toronto when expected to win comfortably. The Raptors are 5-13 (.278) against the spread (ATS) as a favorite over their last 18 games, indicating a systemic issue with maintaining intensity and covering margins against perceived “inferior” opponents. Furthermore, despite Chicago’s roster turnover, the fresh legs of dynamic guards like Ivey and Simons (if available to debut) provide high-variance scoring punch that can keep a game within single digits through sheer individual talent.

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Total Prediction: Under 225.5 (-109) at FanDuel

For the total, Josh Giddey’s absence is critical. He was the primary engine for Chicago’s pace. Without him, and with a new collection of guards, the Bulls are likely to devolve into isolation-heavy basketball. This aligns with recent betting data favoring the Under; in the Bulls’ last seven games as an underdog, the Under has cashed five times (71.4%).

Despite the uncertainty of the new roster, 8.5 points is a generous cushion against a Raptors team that lacks a killer instinct. Toronto is 1-3 (.250) ATS following a loss recently, suggesting it struggles to bounce back emphatically. Expect a scrappy, high-energy effort from Chicago’s young acquisitions eager to prove themselves, keeping this within the number.

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Chicago vs Toronto Player Prop Odds

Consensus odds as of Feb. 05, 2026.

Best Player Prop: Brandon Ingram Over 21.5 Points (-124) at DraftKings

With Chicago’s perimeter defense compromised and their interior protection stripped away by the Vucevic trade, Brandon Ingram should find ample space to operate in the mid-range. Ingram has been a focal point of the Raptors’ attack since his arrival, averaging over 23 points in home contests. Against a chaotic defense, 22 points is a highly probable outcome.

Chicago vs Toronto Key Betting Trends

• Raptors Struggle as Favorites: The Raptors are just 5-13 (.278) ATS as a favorite over their last 18 games.
• Bulls Own the H2H: The Bulls are 3-0 (1.000) ATS against the Raptors over their last three head-to-head meetings.
• Toronto Bounce-Back Issues: The Raptors are 1-3 (.250) ATS following a loss over their last four contests.
• Under Trending for Chicago: The Over has hit in only 2 of the Chicago Bulls’ last 7 games as an underdog (71.4% to the Under).
• Raptors Lean Toward Under: The Over has hit in just 2 of the Toronto Raptors’ last 6 games (66.7% to the Under).

Public Betting Splits

The NBA betting public has taken a clear stance on this Eastern Conference clash, heavily favoring the home team and expecting a high-scoring affair at Scotiabank Arena. This creates a distinct contrarian opportunity, as our edges on the Bulls spread and the Under run directly counter to the overwhelming market consensus.

Spread Splits

The sentiment surrounding the Raptors is bullish, likely driven by the headlines regarding Chicago’s massive roster turnover. Currently, 57.1% of spread bets are backing the Toronto Raptors, and that conviction is even stronger when looking at the handle, with 61.5% of the money landing on the home favorite. This suggests the average bettor is comfortable laying the points with Toronto, ignoring their poor ATS record as favorites.

Moneyline Splits

Confidence in a straight-up Toronto victory is near-absolute. The Raptors have attracted 81.5% of the ticket count and an even more dominant 84.0% of the money on the moneyline. While the public expects Toronto to win, the disparity between the moneyline confidence and the spread handle suggests some hesitation about the margin of victory, though the majority still leans toward a blowout.

Total Splits

The most significant divergence between our analysis and public sentiment appears in the totals market. Bettors are hammering the Over, likely anticipating that Toronto’s offense will exploit Chicago’s depleted defense. A massive 83.6% of bets are on the Over, carrying a staggering 91.5% of the money. When over 90% of the handle sits on one side of a total, it often signals a public trap, especially when the visiting team lacks their primary pace-pusher. We are fading this heavy public expectation.

Chicago vs Toronto Stats

Chicago vs Toronto Head-to-Head Trends

The Bulls are 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Raptors.

However, the dynamic of this specific meeting is heavily influenced by the availability of key personnel.

• Chicago’s Roster Overhaul: Since the last meeting, Chicago has traded Nikola Vucevic and Coby White, replacing them with a younger, less experienced core. This removes the known commodities that helped Chicago cover previous spreads.
• Toronto’s Injury at Center: The absence of Jakob Poeltl weakens Toronto’s interior defense significantly compared to previous matchups, potentially leveling the playing field for Chicago’s slashing guards.

Chicago vs Toronto Injury Report & Analysis

Chicago vs Toronto Odds

Odds as of February 05, 2026, at 01:36 PM EST from DraftKings Sportsbook.

The betting market clearly positions the Raptors as the heavy favorite at home, with the moneyline price of -351 implying a significant mismatch. However, the spread of 8.5 points suggests that while oddsmakers expect a Toronto victory, they are hesitant to forecast a complete blowout given the uncertainty of Chicago’s new lineup.

Removing the vig from the current moneyline odds provides a clearer picture of the implied win probabilities. Based on the consensus numbers, the Raptors hold an implied win probability of approximately 74.5%, leaving the Bulls with a 25.5% chance to pull off the road upset.

For bettors looking to play the moneyline, the payout disparity is substantial. A $20 wager on the underdog Chicago Bulls at +276 would return a total of $75.20 (including the original stake) if they win outright. Conversely, backing the heavy favorite requires significantly more capital for a smaller return; a $20 bet on the Toronto Raptors at -351 would yield a total payout of just $25.70.

Line Movement Analysis

There has been noticeable movement since the opening lines were released.

• Spread Movement: The Raptors initially opened as 10-point favorites, but that number has been bet down to -8.5. This 1.5-point shift towards Chicago suggests that early bettors felt the double-digit spread was too generous, reacting to the “new player energy” potential or Toronto’s poor history as a heavy favorite.
• Total Movement: The total has seen a downward adjustment, opening at 227.5 and ticking down to 225.5. This movement aligns with the news of Giddey’s absence; without Chicago’s primary pace-pusher, the market has corrected for a game likely to be played at a slower tempo.