Cavaliers vs Pacers Prediction, Picks & Odds (Dec. 1)

• The Pacers are a strong bet to cover the spread, boasting an impressive 6-1 ATS record in their last seven games against a Cavaliers
• With Indiana ranking 28th in offensive rating and Cleveland missing key offensive pieces in Max Strus and Jarrett Allen, all signs point toward the Under 233.5 in a game where points should be at a premium.
• Cleveland’s defensive identity takes a major hit with center Jarrett Allen sidelined, creating a significant opportunity for Pascal Siakam and the Pacers to attack the paint and keep this game closer than oddsmakers expect.

On Monday night, the Cleveland Cavaliers (12-9, 4-5 away, ATS) travel to face the improving Indiana Pacers (4-16, 4-6 home, ATS) at Gainbridge Fieldhouse at 7:00 pm ET with FDSIN and FDSOH providing broadcast coverage. Cleveland is coming off a 117-115 loss at home to Boston last night, while the Pacers had a day off after beating Chicago 103-101 at home on Saturday.

Not only has Indiana won two in a row straight-up for the first time this season, the Pacers have also covered the spread in six straight games. Indiana still ranks 29th in the league in offensive rating (106.6), though, and is a sizable home underdog to the Cavaliers, who sit 14th in O-Rating (115.7) and ninth in D-Rating (112.6).

Can the Pacers cover their NBA-best seventh straight game? Below, I have set out my Cavaliers vs Pacers picks and predictions, plus the latest Cleveland/Indiana odds and public-betting splits.

CLE Cavaliers vs IND Pacers Picks & Predictions

CLE vs IND ATS Pick: Pacers +7.0 (-115) at Fanatics Sportsbook Missouri

While the Cavaliers enter as the rightful road favorite, several compelling trends suggest the undermanned Pacers are being undervalued by the betting market. The Cavs have struggled in this exact spot, posting a 1-3 ATS record in their last four on the road and an identical 1-3 ATS record in the second half of back-to-backs in their last four tries.

This situational fatigue could be a significant factor against a Pacers team that has consistently played Cleveland tough. Indiana is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven against Cleveland. The Pacers have a history of rising to the occasion in this rivalry. Trust the trends and the home-court energy to keep this one closer than the line suggests.

CLE vs IND Game-Total Pick: Under 233.5 (-110) at FanDuel Missouri

For the total, all signs point toward a lower-scoring affair than the lofty 233.5-point line projects. Both teams have been trending heavily toward the under in their recent games. The over has hit in just one of Cleveland’s last four following a loss. Similarly, the under has hit in five of the Pacers’ last six game after a win.

With Indiana’s offense struggling for an identity and Cleveland playing on tired legs, points could be at a premium.

Best Player Prop to Bet: Siakam Over 3.5 Assists (-137) at Underdog

With Tyrese Haliburton out, Pascal Siakam has become the de facto point-forward and primary facilitator for Indiana’s offense. Everything runs through him, and his assist numbers should reflect that heavy usage rate as he looks to create for teammates like Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard.

Siakam (4.4 APG) is averaging almost a full assist over his total of 3.5 and has recorded at least four dimes in 11 of 19 games this season (58% hit rate) and six of ten home games (60%), which exceeds the implied probability of his -137 odds (57.81%).

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers Odds

As of Monday afternoon, the Cavaliers vs Pacers point spread ranges from CLE -6.5 to -7.0. Fanatics has the best ATS price on Indiana (+7.0 at -115) while DraftKings has the best ATS price on Cleveland (-6.5 at -115).

On the moneyline, the Pacers are as long as +205 at bet365 to win straight-up. The best moneyline price on the Cavaliers is -250 at FanDuel as significant road favorites. The game total ranges from 232.5 (ov -117) at Underdog to 233.5 (un -110) at FanDuel.

A successful $20 wager on the Cavaliers would yield a profit of just $8.00, while the same bet on the Pacers would return a handsome $40.80 profit.

CLE vs IND Line Movement

The market has shifted slightly in favor of the Cavaliers and the over since lines were first posted on Sunday night:

• Opening Spread: Cavaliers -5.5 (-110)
• Opening Total: 232.5 (-110)

Cavaliers vs Packers Betting Splits: Sharp Money Backs Pacers

The NBA public betting splits largely side with the road favorite, but a closer look at where the money is going reveals a compelling narrative that supports a contrarian play on the Pacers. While the Cleveland Cavaliers are the popular pick across most markets, the bigger-money ATS wagers pointing to Indiana.

While the majority of bets (57%) are on the Cavaliers to cover the spread, the majority of the money (53%) is actually backing the Pacers +6.5. This divergence often indicates that sharper wagers are on the underdog.