Cavaliers vs Thunder Prediction, Player Props & Picks on Sunday

• Cleveland is a 3.5-point road favorite against an OKC team missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams
• Donovan Mitchell is averaging 29.2 points per game over his last five
• Check out my top Cavaliers vs Thunder picks, predictions, and props to target on Feb. 22

Two conference heavyweights collide on Sunday afternoon as the Cleveland Cavaliers (36-21, 17-10 away, ATS) travel to face the Oklahoma City Thunder (43-14, 23-6 home, ATS) at the Paycom Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 1:00 pm ET with ABC providing national broadcast coverage.

The Cavaliers arrive riding a seven-game winning streak following the James Harden acquisition, while the Thunder navigate a brutal stretch of injuries to their perimeter stars. This matchup presents a distinct clash of styles: Cleveland’s efficient scoring engine against an Oklahoma City defense that leads the league in disruption but currently lacks its primary closers.

Cavaliers vs Thunder Player Props & Odds

With the usage hierarchy shifting due to injuries, the prop market offers several exploitable angles. The table above lists the consensus lines and odds for key starters projected to see heavy minutes.

Donovan Mitchell’s points total opened at 24.5 at some books but has been bet up to 25.5 at most, correlating with his recent high-usage performances and the lack of elite perimeter defenders available for OKC.

Jarrett Allen’s scoring line has adjusted down from 14.5 to 13.5, reflecting the difficulty of operating in the paint against Holmgren and Hartenstein.

Sharp bettors are also targeting the over on Isaiah Hartenstein’s assist prop of 4.5, acknowledging his expanded role as a high-post hub without traditional point guard play.

CLE vs OKC Injury Reports

The injury report is the single-most significant variable, heavily tilting availability toward the visitors.

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Abdomen): OUT. The reigning MVP’s absence removes approximately 30 points and elite playmaking.
• Jalen Williams (Hamstring): OUT. Strips the team of its secondary creator.
• Alex Caruso (Ankle): OUT. Suffered a left ankle sprain on Feb. 20 vs Brooklyn.
• Ajay Mitchell (Abdomen): OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (Knee): OUT.

Cleveland Cavaliers

• Max Strus (Foot): OUT. Isaac Okoro and Dean Wade absorb wing minutes.
• Evan Mobley (Calf): ACTIVE. Cleared to play after missing the Charlotte game.

The simultaneous absences of Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Caruso force a massive usage redistribution. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein will see inflated touch counts, with Holmgren acting as the primary scorer and Hartenstein facilitating from the elbows. The loss of Caruso significantly weakens OKC’s point-of-attack defense, raising the ceiling for Mitchell’s scoring output.

Cavaliers vs Thunder Top Prop Bets & Predictions

Donovan Mitchell Over 25.5 Points (-120 at FanDuel)

Without Caruso, Oklahoma City loses its best option for navigating screens and contesting at the point of attack. Mitchell enters in elite form, averaging 29.2 points per game over his last 5 games and 27.5 over his last 10, hitting the Over on 25.5 in 70% of those starts. His season-long baseline of 28.8 PPG further suggests the line undervalues his output given the specific personnel available for OKC.

Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 Rebounds (-110 at BetMGM)

The game script favors a slower pace as OKC attempts to limit possessions against a superior offense, necessitating heavy minutes for Holmgren. At the Paycom Center this season, he is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game, a full unit above the line. He has eclipsed 8.5 rebounds in 4 of his last 5 home games, averaging 9.6 boards in that span.

Cavaliers vs Thunder Betting Odds & Game Info

• Spread: Cavaliers -3.5 (opened -1.5)
• Moneyline: Cavaliers -162 | Thunder +136
• Total: 226.5 (opened 223.5)
• Date: Sunday, February 22, 2026
• Tip-Off: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Paycom Center — Oklahoma City, OK
• Broadcast: ABC

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