Celtics vs Mavericks Predictions & Odds (Jan. 5)

Published: January 4, 2023 at 8:51 pm EST

Luka Doncic strikes a pose after making a shot — Jan 2, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) reacts during the third quarter against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Boston is laying 2 points on the road to Dallas in the Celtics vs Mavericks odds on Thursday
The Mavericks rank second in the NBA in offensive rating over the past seven games
Keep reading for the Celtics vs Mavericks odds, along with injury news and best bets

Don’t look now, but Luka Doncic and the Mavericks (22-16, 15-5 home) have moved all the way up to number four in the West standings. They’re riding a season-high seven game winning streak, and are fresh off a major comeback victory over Houston.

However, that isn’t enough for them to earn preferential treatment on Thursday in the NBA odds. That honor belongs to their opponent Boston, despite the Celtics (26-12, 11-7 away) mini two-game slide.

Celtics vs Mavericks Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Boston Celtics	-2 (-110)	-130	O 230 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks	+2 (-110)	+110	U 230 (-110)

Odds as of January 4 at FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Celtics vs Mavericks game.

Boston opened up as 2-point road favorites in Dallas, in a game that features a total of 230. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET, and will be the first contest of TNT’s nationwide doubleheader.

Celtics vs Mavericks Betting Analysis

Online sportsbooks have not downgraded the Celts due to their funk, even though they were absolutely crushed last time out versus an inferior opponent. Boston dropped a 150-117 decision at OKC, despite the Thunder playing without their best player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

It was the Celtics first 17+ point loss of the season, and this game was over by halftime. Boston coughed up a 59% field goal percentage, and allowed OKC to bury 20-of-40 triples. The Celtics were beaten on the glass and destroyed in the paint, losing the rebounding battle by six, while getting outscored 70-46 down low.

Boston’s defense has taken a step back this season after leading the league in that category in 2021-22, and it didn’t help that Robert Williams III sat versus the Thunder. Williams is the team’s primary rim protector and second best rebounder, and is currently questionable for Thursday. The Celtics enter play ranked 15th in scoring defense and 16th in opponent field goal percentage.

Jayson Tatum’s answer to MVP talk was perfect. 👨‍🍳😘 pic.twitter.com/2nXfbaWyQV

— CelticsLife.com (@celticslife) December 25, 2022

The reason they remain the top contender in the NBA Championship odds however, is thanks to a terrific offense. Boston leads the league in offensive rating, averaging a league high 118.6 points per night. Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are averaging north of 27 points and 7 rebounds per game, making them the lone duo in the league to do so.

Tatum ranks fifth in the NBA in scoring at 30.8 points per game, and is a top-three NBA MVP odds contender coming into this matchup.

The man Tatum, and everyone else in the league, is chasing in that category is Dallas’ Luka Doncic. The superstar guard leads the league in scoring (34.3 ppg) and ranks fourth in assists (8.9 apg). Doncic has put up 32 or more points in six straight outings, clearing the 50-point mark three times, and reaching 60 points once during that stretch.

We are watching greatness @luka7doncic I've never seen anything like that ever

— Mark Cuban (@mcuban) December 28, 2022

He’s fresh off a ho-hum 39 point, 12 rebound, 8 assist performance, in a game he shot just 38.4% in. Doncic and Co. erased an 18-point deficit in Monday’s 111-106 victory over the Rockets, beating Houston for the third time in the last week and a half.

If you want to poke a hole in the Mavericks winning streak you certainly can, as just one of the seven wins came against a team with an above .500 record (New York). However, what you can’t deny is how efficient they’ve been scoring the basketball. Over the past seven games, Dallas ranks fourth in Net Rating and second in offensive rating.

They’re averaging 121.8 points per 100 possessions, which extrapolated over the entire season would be over four points higher than anyone else. Unfortunately, their defense hasn’t been able to match the production.

Celtics vs Mavericks Predictions

Dallas’ defense over their winning streak has actually been worse than their season long averages. They’re coughing up 116 points per 100 possessions, and as mentioned, they’ve haven’t exactly been facing offensive juggernauts.

That opens the door for a high scoring game versus the Celtics, something Boston is accustom to. Celtics games are 19-17-2 to the over this season, while four of their past six outings have cleared the total.

NBA Top Over Records

Team	Over Record
New Orleans Pelicans	22-15-0
Atlanta Hawks	22-15-0
LA Lakers	22-15-0
Detroit Pistons	23-16-1
San Antonio Spurs	21-15-1
Dallas Mavericks	22-16-0
Boston Celtics	19-17-2

Only five teams have seen a higher percentage of their games go over than Dallas, as the Mavs are 22-16 to the over. Four of Dallas’ last five games have gone over, and this one should feature plenty of offense as well.

The Mavs are scoring at a season-best rate, and if Williams is out again for the Celtics, Dallas will have a field day in the paint. At the other end of the floor, nothing we’ve seen from the Mavs lately suggests they can shut down the league’s top scoring team.

Pick: Over 230 (-110)

Chris Amberley

Sports Writer

As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

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