Celtics vs Mavericks Picks, Predictions & Injury Updates (Feb 3)

• Boston is 11-5 straight-up in its past 16 road games, making the Celtics strong favorites to cover the spread
• Injuries to key players makes the Under 222.5 a high-value play
• Rookie sensation Cooper Flagg is positioned to clear his 19.5-point prop line

The Boston Celtics travel to Dallas to face the Mavericks tonight. Tip-off is set for 8 pm, ET (Peacock).

The Celtics (31-18) just completed a 3-1 homestand, while the Mavericks (19-30) have lost three consecutive home games.

Oddsmakers have installed Boston as a consensus 6.5-point road favorite.

From a handicapping perspective, this game is defined by a chaotic injury report. Stars Jayson Tatum, Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis are out. The Celtics have proven resilient on the road, while Dallas is forced to rely heavily on 19-year-old phenom Cooper Flagg. Bettors must weigh Boston’s proven system against the unpredictability of a “hero ball” scenario for the Mavericks’ rookie.

Celtics vs Mavericks Prediction & Best Bets

The Mavericks have the narrative momentum of Cooper Flagg’s recent explosion, but the Celtics possess a distinct advantage in structural consistency and road performance that points toward the visitors covering the number.

Spread Prediction: Celtics -6.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

The Celtics have been road warriors recently, boasting an 11-5 (.688) straight-up record on the road over their last 16 games. Furthermore, Boston has feasted on teams struggling to find their footing; the Celtics are 8-3 (.727) against the spread (ATS) versus opponents with a losing record over their last 11 games, and an even more impressive 5-1 ATS on the road in that same split.

Conversely, the Mavericks are just 1-3 straight up at home over their last four contests. Expect Jaylen Brown and Derrick White to control the tempo, exploit Dallas’s lack of rim protection, and cover the spread at DraftKings Sportsbook.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Total Prediction: Under 222.5 (-114 at BetMGM)

The market opened at 223.5 and has ticked down, a move that aligns with the massive offensive production removed from the floor. While Flagg recently poured in 49 points, relying on a rookie to replicate that efficiency against a championship-caliber defense is statistically risky.

Dallas has trended toward defensive struggles, but the betting data suggests lower-scoring affairs when they face elite competition. The Under has hit in 3 of the Mavericks’ last 4 games against top 10 scoring defenses. With Boston likely to slow the pace to support their own depleted rotation, and Dallas lacking the playmakers to generate easy transition buckets, points should be at a premium. Take the Under at BetMGM.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get a $50 BetMGM Rewards Bonus & Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets!

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1550

CODE: SBD1550

SIGNUP BONUS

GET $50 BETMGM
REWARDS POINTS

+ UP TO $1,500 BACK!

BET NOW

Best Player Prop: Cooper Flagg Over 19.5 Points (-118 at FanDuel)

With the consensus line set at 19.5 points, the books are reacting too slowly to the sheer volume Cooper Flagg is about to absorb. Fresh off a career-defining 49-point performance against Charlotte, Flagg is now the undisputed primary option for Dallas.

The volume will be there by necessity. In a game where Dallas will likely be chasing points, the rookie will have the green light to shoot from everywhere. Even with modest efficiency, the usage rate required to keep Dallas competitive makes this number feel like a floor rather than a ceiling. Look for him to clear this number at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins!

Offer only available in AZ, CO, KS, NC, TN. Must be 21+. T&C Apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $200

BET NOW

Team Betting Trends

• Road Resilience: The Celtics are 11-5 (.688) straight-up on the road over their last 16 games.
• Feasting on sub-.500s: Boston is highly profitable against weaker competition, going 8-3 (.727) ATS when facing opponents with a losing record over their last 11 contests.
• Road Efficiency: Extending that dominance to away games, the Celtics are 5-1 (.833) ATS on the road against opponents with a losing record over their last 6 matchups.
• Home Struggles: The American Airlines Center has provided little advantage recently, with the Mavericks going just 1-3 (.250) straight up at home over their last 4 games.
• Defensive Grinds: When facing elite competition, Dallas games tend to stay low. The Over has hit in only 1 of the Mavericks’ last 4 games against top 10 scoring defenses.

Public Betting Splits

The NBA public betting data for this Tuesday night clash reveals distinct divides between public sentiment and projected outcomes, particularly regarding the total.

Spread Trends

There is a notable disagreement between our prediction of a Celtics cover and the current betting action. Despite the injuries to Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis, the public is backing the home underdog. The Mavericks are attracting 63.0% of the handle (money) and 59.4% of the betting tickets. Momentum has also shifted toward the home team, with the volume of bets on the Mavericks spread increasing by 5.6% recently. This suggests the market is banking on Cooper Flagg keeping the game competitive rather than analyzing the structural mismatches.

Moneyline Splits

While bettors are taking the points with Dallas, they aren’t confident in an outright upset. The moneyline market shows overwhelming support for the visitors. The Celtics are commanding 85.4% of the tickets and 80.1% of the money, indicating that the consensus expectation is a Boston victory, even if the margin remains tight.

Total Market Discrepancy (Sharp Angle)

The most significant contrast lies in the Total market. While our model points toward a defensive struggle resulting in the Under (222.5), the public is aggressively betting on a shootout. The Over is receiving a massive 81.9% of bets and 80.2% of the money. This creates a strong contrarian opportunity for Under bettors, as the heavy “Over” action likely reflects a reaction to Flagg’s recent high-scoring output rather than the defensive realities of two teams missing their primary offensive engines.

Celtics vs Mavericks Key Stats

Celtics vs Mavericks Injury Report

Celtics vs Mavericks Odds

Odds as of February 3, 2026, from DraftKings Sportsbook.

The spread sits at roughly two possessions (-6.5), reflecting confidence in Boston’s depth over Dallas’ reliance on a rookie. The juice on the Celtics’ spread (-118) suggests the line could move toward -7 if late money pours in.

Implied Win Probabilities

Removing the vigorish (juice) from the moneyline odds reveals the true market expectations:

• Boston Celtics: \~70.0% probability of winning.
• Dallas Mavericks: \~30.0% probability of winning.

For a standard $20 wager:

• A bet on Boston (-271) returns a total of $27.38 ($7.38 profit).
• A bet on Dallas (+219) returns a total of $63.80 ($43.80 profit).

Line Movement

The Celtics opened as -7.5 favorites, but the line has ticked down to -6.5. This 1-point move likely stems from bettors seeing value in the home underdog catching three scores (7+ points). Meanwhile, the total opened at 223.5 and dropped to 222.5. This aligns with the “Under” juice (-114), indicating sharp money respects the defensive implications of a game missing high-volume scorers like Irving and Davis.