Celtics vs Pacers Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits (Jan 12)

• The home underdog Indiana Pacers are 3-1 against the spread in their last four home games
• We’ve identified the Under 226.5 as a prime bet
• Celtics star Jaylen Brown (back) is listed as doubtful

What a difference a year makes. Injuries, too.

Last season, the Indiana Pacers made it to the NBA Finals. This season, without Tyrese Haliburton, they have the NBA’s worst record and are in the mix to claim the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Boston? The Celtics are surviving quite well without Jayson Tatum, having the third-best record in the Eastern Conference.

That’s the backdrop tonight, when the Pacers host the Celtics. Tip-off is 7:30 pm, ET, Jan. 12 (Peacock).

The Pacers have won two in a row. The Celtics are coming off a tough loss at San Antonio.

We analyze the game and provide our best bets and predictions.

Celtics vs Pacers Prediction & Best Bets

With star players sidelined for both teams, this game becomes a test of depth and a prime opportunity for value hunters. The Celtics opened as 7-point favorites, the but the spread already has moved to -5.5, reflecting the market’s skepticism about this version of the Celtics.

Complicating the situation is Jaylen Brown’s status. Boston’s leading scorer is listed as doubtful due a back injury. Brown played 43 minutes in the Celtics’ 100-95 loss to San Antonio on Saturday night, Jan. 10.

Indiana has proven to be a tough out on its home floor, posting a 3-1 record against the spread in their last four games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Boston’s supporting cast is talented, but asking them to create enough offense to win by six or more against a motivated home underdog is a tall order.

The value lies with the home team getting points.

Best Bet: Indiana Pacers +6.0 (-110) at Bet365 on January 12

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net Up to $1,000!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME365

CODE: DIME365

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $200

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

Total Points Analysis: Under 226.5

The consensus Under is 225.5, but DraftKings has it at 226.5. Both teams enter this contest without their primary offensive engine, and Boston also could be without Brown. The Celtics’ offense, which ranks second in the NBA, relies heavily on star-level shot creation. Potentially without Brown, too, role players like Derrick White and Payton Pritchard will be forced into primary creation roles, likely leading to a dip in efficiency.

The betting trends strongly support a lower-scoring affair. The total has gone under in four of the Pacers’ last five games. This trend holds even against top competition, with the under also hitting in four of Indiana’s last five games against opponents with a winning record. With both offenses significantly compromised, a total of 226.5 points appears too high. Expect a grind-it-out game where points are at a premium.

Pick: Under 226.5 (-115) at DraftKings on January 12

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS).

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Best Player Prop: Payton Pritchard Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

When Boston’s stars sit, Payton Pritchard’s number gets called. Pritchard will see a spike in usage as a scorer and primary ball-handler. His points prop is set around 21.5, and his assists line hovers near 5.5 or 6.5, both of which are attainable in his elevated role. However, the safest and most valuable play targets his all-around contributions.

Pritchard will be tasked with scoring, facilitating, and crashing the glass more than usual. The PRA (Points + Rebounds + Assists) line at 32.5 offers the best path to cashing, as he can contribute across multiple statistical categories to surpass this number in his expanded role.

Player Prop Pick: Payton Pritchard Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-109 via DraftKings)

Pacers vs Celtics Betting Trends: Key Statistical Indicators

When analyzing this matchup, several key betting trends emerge that heavily favor the home underdog and a lower-scoring affair.

• Indiana: 3-1 against the spread in their last four games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• Indiana: The total has gone UNDER in four of the Pacers’ last five games overall
• Indiana: The UNDER has hit in four of Indiana’s last five contests against opponents with a winning record
• Boston: 16-4 straight-up record in their last 20 games against bottom-10 scoring defenses, a trend that will be tested without their primary scorers

Public Betting Splits: Sharp Money vs Casual Action

Despite the significant injuries to Boston’s star players, the NBA betting public is still placing faith in the Celtics and is expecting a high-scoring game. This creates a dynamic where sharp analysis diverges from popular opinion, presenting a classic “fade the public” opportunity.

Spread and Moneyline Breakdown

The public overwhelmingly backs Boston on the moneyline, with 82.2% of betting slips on the Celtics to win outright. However, examining the money reveals a different story. While Boston commands 71.8% of the handle, the Indiana Pacers have attracted a proportionally larger share of money (28.2%) from just 17.8% of bets, suggesting larger, sharper wagers are backing the underdog.

On the spread, 60.2% of bets favor Boston, but the money is more evenly distributed with the Celtics holding 56.2% of the stake. This indicates that while more casual bettors are backing Boston, significant money is flowing to Indiana to cover the spread, aligning with our prediction that value lies with the home underdog.

Total Points Market Analysis

The public’s appetite for points is overwhelming, with 82.1% of bets and 82.7% of the total handle backing the OVER. This heavy public action directly contradicts our analysis. With both teams missing their top offensive weapons, the path to a high-scoring game is severely compromised, making the Under 225.5 a strong contrarian play.

Celtics vs Pacers Key Stats Comparison

Who has the edge?

Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers Injury Report & Analysis

Will Jaylen Brown play? That’s the most critical question on the injury report.

Injury Report for January 12th Matchup

Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers Current Odds

The betting market has adjusted significantly to injury news but still lists the Celtics as road favorites. Line movement tells a story of initial respect for Boston’s full roster, followed by sharp correction as key players were ruled out.

Odds as of January 12th from consensus lines.

The moneyline positions Boston as clear but not insurmountable favorites at -232. A bettor needs to wager $23.20 on the Celtics to win $10, while a successful $10 wager on the underdog Pacers at +190 nets $19 profit. The implied, vig-free probabilities give Boston a 67.8% chance of winning outright, compared to 32.2% for Indiana.

The most telling story lies in line movement. The spread opened with the Celtics as 7-point favorites (-7.0) but has shifted 1.5 points toward Indiana. This significant adjustment reflects market re-evaluation of Boston’s ability to win convincingly without their top scorers.

Interestingly, the consensus total moved upward from an opening of 223.5 to 225.5, contrary to logic suggesting fewer points with missing stars. This increase likely stems from heavy public betting on the over, creating additional value on the under given the depleted offensive situations for both teams.