Nuggets vs Knicks Picks & Predictions (Feb 4)

• The Knicks aim to extend their seven-game winning streak
• Betting the Over has been highly profitable when the Nuggets play on zero rest
• We analyze Nuggets vs Knicks and offer expert betting advice

If you like points, you’re in luck tonight when the New York Knicks host Denver. Both teams are among the top-10 scoring offenses in the NBA. Tip-off is set for 7 pm, ET (ESPN) at famed Madison Square Garden.

For handicappers, the narrative centers on two teams trending in opposite directions entering this contest. The Knicks (32-18) arrive with immense momentum, riding a seven-game winning streak following decisive victories over the Los Angeles Lakers and Washington Wizards. In contrast, the Nuggets (33-18) are looking to end a two-game losing streak, including a narrow upset loss at Detroit last night. With Nikola Jokic orchestrating Denver’s efficient attack and the newly minted All-Star duo of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns powering New York, this matchup features elite star power on both sides of the floor. Bettors assessing this spot must weigh New York’s home-court dominance against Denver’s urgency to correct course on the road.

Knicks vs Nuggets Prediction & Best Bets

The Nuggets have historically shown resilience in difficult scheduling spots — going 7-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road in the second half of a back-to-back over their last eight opportunities — but their recent history against New York paints a different picture.

The Knicks have won seven consecutive games, including four at home. The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS against the New York Knicks over their last six games. Given New York’s current momentum and Denver’s recent struggles to meet expectations against the Knicks’ physical defense, backing the home team to cover the spread offers the strongest value.

The Pick: New York Knicks -6.5 (-112) at DraftKings

New York’s current form is undeniable. Riding a seven-game winning streak, they are catching a Nuggets team in a vulnerable spot immediately following a road game in Detroit. While Denver’s ATS record on back-to-backs is generally impressive, the head-to-head data suggests New York has the defensive formula to disrupt Denver’s rhythm. With the line sitting at -6.5, and considering the Knicks’ dominance at Madison Square Garden recently, they are well-positioned to extend Denver’s ATS woes in this series.

The most significant trend defining this series is Denver’s inability to cover the spread against New York. Over their last six meetings, the Nuggets are just 1-5 ATS against the Knicks. This trend suggests that oddsmakers often overvalue Denver’s offensive efficiency against New York’s gritty playing style, or that the Knicks’ defensive scheme is uniquely suited to keeping these games closer than projected or winning comfortably.

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Total Prediction: Over 224.5 (-105) at BetMGM

Despite the Knicks’ defensive reputation, the situational trends for Denver point heavily toward the Over.

• Trend to Watch: The Over has hit in 7 of the Denver Nuggets’ last 8 games on the road in the second half of a back-to-back (>87%).

When playing on heavy legs, Denver’s defense often slips, leading to high-scoring affairs. While the Under has hit in 6 of New York’s last 7 games against winning opponents, the sheer consistency of the Nuggets’ high-scoring trend in no-rest road situations makes the Over the sharper play here.

Best Player Prop: Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 Points (-110) at Bet365

Coming off a 24-point performance against Detroit, expectations are high for the reigning MVP to assert himself offensively. The consensus line for Jokic is set at 24.5 points. In a game where the Nuggets will need to compensate for fatigue and the absence of Aaron Gordon with efficient superstar production, expect Jokic to look for his own shot more frequently to keep his team competitive.

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Team Betting Trends

• Knicks ATS Dominance: The Knicks have been a reliable bet in this matchup, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Denver.
• Nuggets Road Struggles: Denver has failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with New York.
• Total Trends: The Over has cashed in 7 of Denver’s last 8 road games played on zero rest.
• Home Court Reliability: New York has won 4 consecutive games at Madison Square Garden.

Public Betting Data

The NBA public betting splits for this cross-conference showdown reveal a distinct divide between popular sentiment and the distribution of money, particularly regarding the spread. While the public is heavily backing the road underdog, the handle suggests a different story that aligns with our prediction of a New York cover.

Spread Market

Bettors are largely siding with the Nuggets to keep things close or win outright. Currently, 61.9% of the spread tickets are on the road team. However, looking at the actual money wagered paints a different picture. Despite receiving the minority of the tickets (38.1%), the Knicks have attracted 52.6% of the total stake. This divergence — where the ticket count favors the underdog but the handle leans toward the favorite—suggests that sharp money is backing New York to cover the -6.5 spread at MSG.

Total Market

Unlike the spread, there is overwhelming consensus regarding the total. Both the ticket volume and the money are united in expecting a high-scoring affair.

• Over: Commands 92.9% of the bets and an even higher 93.5% of the money.
• Under: Accounts for just 7.1% of the bets and 6.5% of the money.

Moneyline Market

The public is confident in New York’s ability to win the game straight up, with the Knicks receiving 69.7% of the moneyline bets. However, the money distribution is significantly tighter than the ticket count implies. The Knicks hold 52.8% of the handle compared to 47.2% for Denver, suggesting that while the public sees a clear Knicks victory, the money respects Denver’s potential to pull off the upset more than the raw ticket count suggests.

Knicks vs Nuggets Team Stats

Key Player Stat Drivers

• Nikola Jokic (DEN): The engine of Denver’s #1 ranked shooting offense. He is averaging 29.1 PPG in away games this season. With a line set at 24.5 Points, the stats suggest he will need to shoulder a heavy scoring load to keep up with New York’s rebounding advantage.
• Jalen Brunson (NYK): Brunson is comfortable at the Garden, averaging 26.8 PPG at home compared to his season average. His points prop is set at 25.5, a number he clears regularly when playing in New York.
• Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK): KAT’s influence on the rebounding mismatch cannot be overstated. His rebounding line is set at 11.5, slightly under his home average of 12.2 RPG, presenting a correlated opportunity if backing the Knicks to control the game.

Knicks vs Nuggets Injury Report

Impact Analysis

Denver’s Frontcourt Depletion: The Nuggets are in a precarious position defensively. With Aaron Gordon (hamstring) out until at least late February and Cameron Johnson (knee) remaining out indefinitely, Denver is missing two of its primary forwards. This lack of size and versatility directly correlates with the betting trends mentioned earlier—specifically Denver’s tendency to allow high point totals on the road. Without Gordon’s athleticism to help on defense, Nikola Jokic will be tasked with protecting the paint virtually alone, likely leading to a high-scoring environment that favors the Over 226.5.

Knicks’ Durability Concerns: The status of Josh Hart is the most pressing concern for handicappers; he left Tuesday’s game against Washington with an undisclosed injury and did not return. Hart is the engine of New York’s rebounding dominance. If he cannot suit up, the “Knicks -6.5” play becomes slightly riskier, as they lose their best hustle player on the second night of a back-to-back.

Nuggets vs Knicks Odds

Odds as of February 4, 2026, from ESPN Bet.

The betting market has positioned the Knicks as solid home favorites. With the moneyline set at -253, the oddsmakers are implying a high degree of confidence in New York extending their winning streak, while the Nuggets are priced as distinct underdogs at +206 following their recent stumble against Detroit. The total is currently set at 226.5, reflecting the balance between Denver’s high-efficiency offense and the fatigue of a back-to-back set.

Implied Probabilities & Payouts

Based on the current moneyline odds, the bookmakers’ implied probability (normalized to remove the vigorish) gives the Knicks a significant edge to win outright.

• New York Knicks Win Probability: 68.7%
• Denver Nuggets Win Probability: 31.3%

For bettors looking to play the moneyline, the payout potential varies drastically between the favorite and the underdog. A $20 wager on the New York Knicks (-253) to win straight up would yield a profit of $7.91, continuing their reliable form at MSG. Conversely, a $20 wager on the Denver Nuggets (+206) to pull off the upset would return a profit of $41.20, offering a much higher reward for backing the road team in a tough scheduling spot.

Line Movement Analysis

There has been significant movement in the spread market since the lines first opened, indicating sharp action favoring the home team. The Knicks opened as -4.5 favorites, but that number has been bid up to -6.5. This 2-point swing suggests that despite the public ticket count favoring Denver, heavy influential money and reaction to the injury report—specifically the confirmed absence of Aaron Gordon—have forced books to adjust heavily toward New York. Meanwhile, the total has remained stagnant at 226.5, suggesting the market is conflicted between potential fatigue (Under) and Denver’s tendency to play high-scoring games on zero rest (Over).