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NBA Finals Game 6 Opening Odds – Bucks 4.5-Point Favorites With Title On the Line

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball

Jul 17, 2021 · 9:31 PM PDT

Jrue Holiday looks for a teammate
The Milwaukee Bucks are 9-1 at home in this year's playoffs. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
  • Game 6 of the NBA Finals goes Tuesday (July 20th) at 9 pm ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
  • The Milwaukee Bucks can clinch the NBA Title with a victory, after a 123-119 victory in Game 5
  • Read below for opening odds analysis and a prediction on which way the line will move leading up to tip-off

The Larry O’Brien Trophy will be in the building on Tuesday in Milwaukee, as the Bucks look to snap a 50-year championship drought. Milwaukee claimed a crucial 123-119 victory on the road in Game 5 of the NBA Finals over the Phoenix Suns, and now own a 3-2 series lead.

Game 6 is set for 9 pm ET at Fiserv Forum, a building in which Milwaukee sports a 9-1 record at during this year’s playoffs.

Suns vs Bucks Opening Odds – Game 6

Team Spread Moneyline at DraftKings Total
Phoenix Suns +4.5 (-105) +165 O 222.5 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 (-115) -195 U 222.5 (-110)

Odds as of July 17th.

The Bucks opened up as a 4.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 222.5. The winner of Game 5 of the NBA Finals when the series has been tied 2-2 has gone on to win the title 72.4% of the time (21-8).

Jrue To the Rescue

Giannis Antetokounmpo had been a one-man show for Milwaukee through three games of the NBA Finals, but he’s received plenty of help from his supporting cast over the past two contests. Khris Middleton poured in 40 in the Bucks’ Game 4 win, while Jrue Holiday literally saved the day on Saturday.

With Milwaukee clinging to a 1-point lead in the dying seconds of Game 5, Holiday stole the ball from Devin Booker and delivered a dime to Giannis to put the Bucks up 3. The potential series defining play helped cover up an awful night at the line for Antetokounmpo (4-of-11), and was one of many brilliant efforts from Holiday.

The 31-year-old finished with 27 points, 13 assists, and 3 steals. Middleton splashed 29, and Giannis added 32. The three became just the fifth trio in NBA Finals history to each shoot 50% or better and score 25 points, and the first since 1985.

Booker meanwhile, became the first Suns player with 40 points in consecutive playoff games. Chris Paul finished with 21 points and 11 assists, while Deandre Ayton added a double-double of his own.

Both teams shot above 55% from the field, and 50% from beyond the arc. Phoenix knocked down 68.4% of its long distance looks, which was one of the main reasons they were nearly able to erase a 14-point 4th quarter deficit.

Expect Minimal Line Movement

Despite Milwaukee’s excellent track record at home during the regular season and playoffs, we shouldn’t expect the Game 6 opening odds to shift more than half a point in either direction. The Bucks closed as 4.5-point home favorites in both Games 3 and 4 in Milwaukee, and while they covered in each outing, the 3.5 to 4.5-point range has been the number the home side has been favored by in all five Finals contests.

The early juice is shaded towards the Bucks which makes sense. They’ve won three straight and casual bettors will want to get down on the home team with a chance to win the title. However, if the line gets pushed up to -5, money is bound to come back in on Phoenix.

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