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Hawks vs Mavericks Props – Best Player Prop Bets on February 10th

Nick Krueger

by Nick Krueger in NBA Basketball

Updated Feb 10, 2021 · 6:36 AM PST

Doncic backs down Trae Young
Luka and Trae meet head-to-head on Wednesday night. (Photo by Austin McAfee/Icon Sportswire)
  • Player prop bets have been released for Wednesday’s matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. EST)
  • The Mavs have won three of their last four games and players like Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis have been giving especially strong performances during that run
  • Read below for a complete look at the top prop bets from tonight’s game and recommendations on which are the best plays

On August 23rd, public opinion of the Dallas Mavericks was through the roof.

Luka Doncic had just willed the Mavs to a 135-133 overtime win in the first round of the playoffs against the Los Angeles Clippers, sealed with a dramatic game-winning three-pointer. Dallas failed to win again in the series after tying it up 2-2, but Doncic appeared to take another step forward as one of the NBA’s brightest young talents and raised the expectations for Dallas this season.

The Mavericks have fallen short of those prognostications so far this year, and hold the third-worst record in the Western Conference through 23 games. Dallas’ 11-12 record matches that of their opponent on Wednesday, the Atlanta Hawks, who are seventh in the Eastern Conference standings. The Mavs are four-point favorites at home tonight, and are looking to win their third game in a row.

Hawks vs Mavericks Player Props and Odds

Player (ATL) Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Trae Young 26.5 (O -112 | U -108) 3.5 (O -150 | U +122) 9.5 (O +100 | U -122) 2.5 (O -111 | U -115)
John Collins 18.5 (O -108 | U -114) 8.5 (O -105 | U -115) N/A 1.5 (O -113 | U -113)
Clint Capela 13.5 (O -122 | U +100) 14.5 (O -115 | U -105) N/A N/A
Cam Reddish 12.5 (O -110 | U -110) 4.5 (O +110 | U -134) N/A 1.5 (O -122 | U -104)
Player (DAL) Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Luka Doncic 28.5 (O -110 | U -110) 8.5 (O -122 | U +100) 10.5 (O +100 | U -122) 2.5 (O +130 | U -166)
Kristaps Porzingis 21.5 (O -108 | U -112) 8.5 (O -128 | U +104) N/A 1.5 (O -160 | U +124)
Josh Richardson 13.5 (O -112 | U -108) 3.5 (O +108 | U -132) 2.5 (O -118 | U -104) 1.5 (O +100 | U -128)

Odds taken from FanDuel on Feb. 10th

Will Luka Light It Up?

The Mavericks and Hawks just played in Atlanta on February 3rd, and Dallas left with a 122-116 win. Doncic finished with 27 points and eight rebounds, but made just one of his five three-point attempts.

YouTube video

Doncic has made three-or-more three-pointers in just four of his last ten contests, and he’s only scored 29-or-more points in four games during that stretch. Three of those four games were ones in which he hit at least three shots from beyond the arc. Although he has the second-highest usage rate in the league and a top-ten player efficiency rating, Doncic is outside of the top 100 players in true shooting percentage.

The Mavs star dropped a season-high 42 points on Golden State on Saturday after hanging 27 on the Warriors last Thursday. A player like Doncic can pop off on any given night, but generally, his offensive numbers are marginally lower at home than on the road. In six games played on a Wednesday this year, Doncic has shot just 22% from three, has had his lowest usage percentage, his lowest points-per-game average, and his second-lowest offensive rating per 100 possessions.

Over the last five games, Doncic has been playing more minutes than usual, and tonight will be the Mavs’ sixth game in ten days. In 15 games played on one day of rest, his averages on a per-game basis hover around his projections for this one. However, his true shooting and field goal percentages are lower than with any other interval between games. Bettors disinterested in taking the under on any Doncic prop would be better off taking the over on his total points and assists (38.5, -118), but the trends suggest that he’s more likely to not clear 28.5 points tonight.

The Pick: Luka Doncic Under 28.5 Points (-110)

Opportunity for Porzingis

After sitting out the first nine games, Kristaps Porzingis has been playing better and more minutes as of late. He scored 24 points against the Hawks last time out, and has scored more than 20 points in three of his last five.

Where Porzingis may have his best chance to shine tonight is on the boards. He had 11 rebounds against Atlanta a week ago, and has pulled down at least 10 in four of his last five games. Atlanta is among the league’s worst when it comes to offensive rebounds by opponents per game, and a third of Porzingis’ 39 total rebounds over his last four outings have come on the offensive glass.

Additionally, he has a significantly higher rebounds-per-game average on one day rest than any other period between games this year.

Atlanta’s John Collins had his best game of the season in terms of offensive production and rebounding when these two teams last met. Considering his performance is more likely to be the exception than the rule, there should be more opportunity for Porzingis to continue his strong run of play, particularly on the boards.

The Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Over 8.5 Rebounds (-128)

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