Hawks Now -162 Favorites in Series Odds vs 76ers After Stunning Game 5 Comeback Win

• The Atlanta Hawks overturned a 26-point deficit on the road to take Game 5
• Trae Young’s team are now -162 favorites to win the series 
• Where does the betting value lie for the rest of this series? See a breakdown below

The Atlanta Hawks are one win away from the Conference Finals. That was a wild prediction when they were languishing well below .500 with Lloyd Pierce in charge. It was every bit as wild when they trailed by Sixers by 26 points in Game 5 at Wells Fargo Center.

Philly got a masterpiece from Joel Embiid, and a career night from Seth Curry, but a sensational late charge from the Hawks completed one of the great recent NBA comebacks.

Inspired by Lou Williams and Trae Young, Atlanta can wrap this series up at home on Friday. They are two-point underdogs for Game 6.

Sixers vs Hawks Series Odds

Odds as of June 17

Rivers Blows Another Lead

Doc Rivers has an unfortunate reputation for blowing playoff leads. It wasn’t 3-1 this time, but the Sixers were 2-1 up with homecourt. Just like the Clippers in the bubble, they held big leads. The Sixers were comfortably ahead in Game 4 and were in blowout territory in Game 5, only to lose both.

It’s hard to tell how much responsibility lies with Rivers. He cannot be blamed entirely for the atrocious play of the Philly bench. Dwight Howard missed dunks and finished as a -14 in just eight minutes. The late-game offensive struggles were as much a personnel issue as coaching.

I can’t really believe what I’m seeing: Joel Embiid and Seth Curry were the only Sixers to make a basket in the second half. pic.twitter.com/2c5yijUn5r

— Tom Haberstroh (@tomhaberstroh) June 17, 2021

On defense, there were lapses in concentration and sloppiness. In other circumstances, the players would be under fire for this, but Rivers’ past playoff failings raise questions about his ability to keep his teams focused. Beyond individual moments, though, the Sixers once again ran into an issue with one of their All-Stars.

Hack-a-Ben

Nate McMillan went all-in on Hack-A-Ben. Simmons is shooting under 40% from the free throw line in the playoffs, and those woes continued in Game 5. He was four-for-14 from the stripe.

Ben Simmons has missed more free throws this year in the playoffs than Steve Nash missed in the playoffs in his entire career.

Ben has shot 67 FTs. Steve Nash shot 440.

— Anthony Doyle🍉 (@Anthonysmdoyle) June 17, 2021

Simmons has never been an impactful offensive player late in playoff games, but he was a non-factor in Game 5. Philly didn’t put the ball in his hands, likely because of the Hack-A-Ben strategy. Standing in the dunker’s spot, Simmons made life harder for his teammates on offense, and contributed to the Sixers’ fourth quarter collapse.

Philly went five-for-17 from the field in final period of Game 5 and Simmons didn’t register a field goal attempt. Tobias Harris was just as ineffective, not scoring in the fourth. Harris frequently found himself driving into traffic as Simmons clogged the lane.

Shaquille O’Neal had 13 playoffs where he attempted at least 50 free throws. His worst percentage: 39.3%

Ben Simmons this postseason: 32.8%.

— Zack Rosenblatt (@ZackBlatt) June 17, 2021

There is no reason for the Hawks to move away from this strategy. Rivers needs Simmons’ defensive presence on the court, however, putting the Sixers in a difficult spot.

Simmons vs Young

This is where it gets tricky. While single game plus/minus is imperfect, it shows how important Simmons can be. He was a +7 in Game 5 in a three-point loss. The Sixers have been a positive with him on the court throughout this series.

https://twitter.com/big_business_/status/1405352627240583168

While Trae Young scored 39 points and racked up 19 free throw attempts, Simmons still did a good job defensively. He committed just one foul in 38 minutes, and forced Young to under 44% from the field.

Lou Williams was a different problem for Philly. The former Clipper was a +31 in the second half, scoring 15 points on 11 shots. Perhaps that’s a performance that the Hawks don’t get again in this series, but the way the veteran sixth man stepped up with Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kevin Huerter scoring showed the greater offensive depth that the Hawks possess.

Sixers Will Struggle to Recover

Just like he did with the Knicks, Young has inflicted psychological damage on the Sixers. Blowing consecutive big leads in this manner, and being booed off the court at Wells Fargo Center, is not easy to recover from in 48 hours.

The fact the Sixers built those leads will tempt some bettors into backing Philly in Game 6, but much like the Bucks in the other Eastern Conference series, there is very little confidence in their fourth quarter execution.

Joel Embiid tonight:

37 PTS
13 REB
5 AST
4 BLK
12-20 FG

The Sixers outscored the Hawks by 11 points with Embiid ON the court and outscored by 14 points with Embiid OFF the court in Game 5. pic.twitter.com/V5cWXk56Bb

— StatMuse (@statmuse) June 17, 2021

The status of Embiid remains an uncertainty too. Despite several MVP-type performances in this series, and an epic Game 5 outing, Embiid is managing pain. How many more nights like that does he have in him? The Sixers just wasted a golden opportunity with Embiid scoring 37 and providing dominant defense (for the first three quarters, at least).

Philly was shell-shocked. They remain the better team, as they have shown in the last two first halves, but it’s impossible to have any confidence in them to force a Game 7. The Hawks are a great bet to win the series at -162.