Heat Win Game 3 Over Lakers Behind Jimmy Butler’s Triple Double; Miami’s NBA Championship Odds Now +1200

• Jimmy Butler led the Miami Heat to a sensational Game 3 NBA Finals win on Sunday night to cut the Lakers hold on the series to 201
• Miami’s odds to win it all have shortened as a result to +1200
• Could Bam Adebayo and/or Goran Dragic return for Game 4 and make the Heat a worthy underdog?

The Miami Heat are back in this series. Miami took Game 3 of the NBA Finals to pull it back to 2-1, and their NBA championship odds have moved to +1200.

Jimmy Butler put in one of the all-time great NBA Finals performances, carrying the Heat in the absence of Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo. The injured pair remain doubtful for Game 4 – could they return and help Miami level the series on Tuesday?

The table below has the latest title odds, with the Heat still massive underdogs.

2020 NBA Finals Heat vs Lakers Odds

Odds taken from FanDuel on October 5th

Adebayo Factor

Dragic’s plantar tear should rule him out for several weeks. He could have painkilling injections and attempt to play in Game 4 or 5, but he will be far from the player we witnessed for the majority of these playoffs. Heading to free agency, and likely his final big contract, Dragic playing in this series is a longshot.

The outlook seems more positive for Adebayo. There were rumors the All-Star big man would be involved in Game 3. While he was ruled out at the last minute, his injury is reportedly far less severe than Dragic’s. The neck and shoulder problem he is suffering with is not really something you can play through effectively, however.

Miami would obviously love to get Adebayo back on the court on Tuesday, but they are not going to risk his long-term health. Having missed the last two games, his condition would need to improve drastically to feature in Game 4.

Heat announce Bam Adebayo (neck) and Goran Dragic (foot) will miss Game 3 of the NBA Finals pic.twitter.com/BE1VKxNHKN

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 4, 2020

No one outside the Heat has much of an idea of if Adebayo will play. Despite Miami’s stunning Game 3 win, the Heat need Adebayo healthy if they are to force this deep. He is so crucial to them at both ends.

Davis’ Foul Trouble

Anthony Davis’ foul trouble was part of the reason Miami didn’t miss Adebayo too much on Sunday. Davis took just nine shots and had only five points at halftime. After playing 78 minutes across the first two Finals games, the All-NBA center was restricted to 33 minutes in Game 3, many of which came after he picked up his fourth foul early in the third quarter.

Davis was unable to be as effective on the defensive end, and he never developed an offensive rhythm. A slow start allowed the Heat to build a lead – Davis had no shot attempts in the first quarter and turned the ball over four times.

The Miami Heat defense was the key. They double teamed AD and took him completely out of the game.

— Earvin Magic Johnson (@MagicJohnson) October 5, 2020

Getting Davis into foul trouble isn’t necessarily something the Heat can replicate, but the things that made him pick up fouls need to be repeated in the next few games. Davis was called for offensive fouls as Heat players were smart and active on the defensive end. They (mainly Butler) attacked the rim when possible.

These are parts of the Game 3 performance that the Heat need to build on in Game 4 and beyond.

It’s very unlikely Davis ends up with 15 points and a -26 again. There’s no question the Heat defended him better on Sunday, though, switching less frequently and avoiding mismatches. Andre Iguodala was strong and active against Davis in the post, giving him no space to spin. They sent quick and effective double teams at him, too.

Anthony Davis: “Trust me, we’ll be fine”

— Dave McMenamin (@mcten) October 5, 2020

How they dealt with Davis reflected a much-improved defensive performance. The Lakers got 11 offensive boards on Sunday, five fewer than Game 2. They took 18 fewer two-point attempts, and shot 43% on such efforts. Miami protected the paint well and did a good job of denying the ball to Davis and LeBron James in the post.

Still LA’s Series to Lose

Something needs to go spectacularly wrong for the Lakers to lose this series. It’s only the third time in these playoffs that Davis has got more than four fouls, and the sloppiness that led to 19 Laker turnovers (14 of which came in the first 24 minutes) is unlikely to happen again.

The Heat played superbly, and Butler had an historic night, but that’s what Miami needed to win a game. Davis had to get in foul trouble, James had to turn it over eight times, and Butler had to post a 40-point triple-double.

Jimmy Butler is the first player to outscore, outrebound and out-assist LeBron James in a Finals game, including LeBron's teammates. Via Elias.

— Marc J. Spears (@MarcJSpears) October 5, 2020

If Adebayo returns it gets more interesting. The chances of him playing at 100% are slim, however, and Miami needs to win three of the next four if they are to take a fourth title in franchise history.

Anything is possible if Butler plays like that, but the Lakers will surely throw more defenders at him in Game 4. He should see a lot of traps and double teams, and the Lakers’ general defensive effort will improve. Butler snatching another game is feasible – the Lakers to win 4-2 is +210.

It will be an all-time great, legacy-damaging meltdown if the Lakers lose from here.