Jazz Looking to Keep Lead on #4 Seed vs Rockets as 2-Point Home Favorite

• Rockets visit Jazz in matchup of 4-5 seeds in West on Saturday night (Feb 22, 9pm ET tip)
• At 20-6, Utah has the third most home wins in the Western Conference 
• Get the odds, our picks, and all the info you need to bet the game below

It may be their final regular season matchup, but Saturday night’s tilt (Feb. 22, 9pm ET) between the visiting Houston Rockets (35-20, 16-12 away) and the Utah Jazz (36-19, 20-6 home) could be the final head-to-head tune up of a potential first round playoff series.

The Jazz currently hold the 4-seed, but the fifth-seeded Rockets trail by only a single game and can pull into a tie for that fourth seed with a win.

Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz Odds

Odds taken February 20

The Rockets vs Jazz odds have the home side as a 2-point favorite in this one, but let’s break down this matchup to see who you should be targeting for a wager.

Rockets Still Feeling Out Downsize Mode

It’s just been five games since Houston dealt Clint Capela in a package that netted them Robert Covington — creating a starting unit with no player taller than RoCo at 6-foot-7. Their first game after the all-star break was their most potent game yet, crushing the Golden State Warriors 135-105.

The Rockets knock down 15 1st half triples on @NBAonTNT!@HoustonRockets 72@warriors 50

Russell Westbrook: 17 PTS, 4 AST
James Harden: 16 PTS, 8 AST
P.J. Tucker: 15 PTS, 5-5 3PM pic.twitter.com/fTqiqsg0Mn

— NBA (@NBA) February 21, 2020

While the competition level can be questioned, the Rockets put together one of their most balanced performances of the year, with six players scoring in double digits, led by James Harden’s 29 points. Fellow all-star Russell Westbrook chipped in 21, and both had 10 assists each, as the Rockets piled up 31 assists and shot a blistering 25-for-49 from three-point range.

The Houston Rockets are committed and going all in on Small ball. I never thought I would see the day that I Kendrick Ledale Perkins would actually be a fan of Darryl Morey and what he’s doing with this Rockets team! He’s doing things his way and I applaud it!

— Kendrick Perkins (@KendrickPerkins) February 17, 2020

Houston also acquired more buyout guys to add depth to their wing play, picking up DeMarre Carroll and Jeff Green, two more lengthy, interchangeable parts to allow them to switch everything on the court. While Green added 17 in his debut, there should still be an adjustment period.

Russell Westbrook and the Small-Ball Rockets

With the starting five of Westbrook, Harden, Tucker, Robert Covington and Danuel House Jr., Houston has outscored their opponents by 26.5 points per 100 possessions.

📊: https://t.co/W5MQCEDG02

10:30pm/et on TNT: HOU@GSW pic.twitter.com/RFqDNF0AkF

— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) February 20, 2020

While the new-look lineup has unlocked Westbrook, who’s averaged 34.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.0 assists on 56.6% shooting in four games, perhaps Harden’s acclimation may be taking a little longer. The league’s leading scorer has failed to crack 30+ points in three of the five games, though Houston is 3-2 in this new look.

Jazz Better Built for Modern Game

Utah is in the thick of a difficult back-to-back, having to handle the Rockets after getting beat up by the Spurs on Friday night. Utah surrendered 65 first-half points and were left in catchup mode the rest of the game, losing 113-104. It snapped a nice four-game winning streak they had built prior to the all-star break.

BOJAN BOGDANOVIC IS CLUTCH🔥

Game winner for Bojan to lift the Jazz over the Rocketspic.twitter.com/wu8uxv4iMS

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) February 10, 2020

One of those wins came against the new-look Rockets, a memorable finish with Bojan Bogdanovic — who had scored just five points and taken six shots all night — nailing the buzzer-beating three to win the game.

Bogdanovic, along with Mike Conley and in-season acquisition Jordan Clarkson (who erupted for 30 against Houston), are new additions that give the Jazz roster more flexibility and spacing than they have ever had under head coach Quinn Snyder. Their ability to create offense, either for themselves or for others, serve as the perfect pieces needed for their all-stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert to excel.

Royce O'Neale and Rudy Gobert out here putting in work.

BIG DUNK BY GOBERT. pic.twitter.com/Pck66Gqp6V

— SLC Dunk (@slcdunk) February 22, 2020

While the Jazz are just 16th in scoring at over 111 points a game, they are also the most lethal three-point shooting team in basketball, hitting for a league-best 38.7% clip. They are also still stout defensively, holding opponents to the six-lowest scoring output, tied with the Lakers, allowing 107.3 points per game. They are also top-10 in field goal and three-point percentage defense.

What’s the Best Bet?

The key for the Jazz will be if they can keep Gobert on the floor for meaningful minutes. He played 37 minutes against the Rockets last game, and piled up 15 rebounds. That’s more minutes played than in any one of their games against the Rockets in the playoffs a year ago, when they lost in five games.

Gobert on the floor at least helps nullify straight line drives from Westbrook and Harden with no resistance at the tin. That still means there will be a bunch of open looks for the Rockets’ sharpshooters.

The Rockets haven’t been road dogs much this year, but they are 6-3 ATS this season, and while the Jazz boast a nice 20-6 home mark — the third highest home win total in the West — they are just 13-11-1 ATS. The Jazz may have a better roster and depth, but the Rockets still have the two best players in this matchup.

The pick: Rockets +2 (-110)