Knicks, Cavaliers & Suns All Given 5-1 Odds of Winning the First-Overall Pick in 2019 NBA Draft

• The New York Knicks finished with the worst record in the NBA last season
• The Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns have the same chance (14%) as the Knicks of winning the top pick
• Zion Williamson is expected to be the no. 1 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft

The 2019 NBA Draft Lottery is just a few weeks away. On May 14th, the ping pong balls will change the fortunes of the 30 teams in the NBA. It’s worth noting that the format has changed for the NBA lottery and the worst team in the league is no longer the best bet to win the top pick. So how should you bet this event?

2019 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

If you’re new to the lottery system, it’s important to note that this isn’t like the NFL: the worst team doesn’t necessarily get the first pick. How it works is the 14 teams who missed the playoffs each have a shot at winning the top pick. However, the percentages are proportional based on where the team finished.

For example, the top three teams each have a 14% of winning the No. 1 pick. Here’s a look at the percentages:

Mathematical Odds of Winning No. 1 Pick

This is a big change from before. From 2005-18, the worst team in the NBA had a 25% chance and no other team had better than a 20% chance. The four worst teams would have a combined 72.4% chance. Now it’s far more wide open. The top four teams have just a 54.5% chance, so we could see a surprise.

Give the Knicks Some Love?

Many people don’t realize that the percentages have changed as the general assumption in New York has been “quit tryin’ for Zion” for quite some time. However, the Knicks, who finished with the worst record in the NBA, have the same chance as the Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns.

Working through Zion Williamson’s NBA Draft scouting video. Really impressed with his ability to switch onto the perimeter at 285 pounds. Great feet for his body type. Still has a lot of work to do in terms of defensive discipline but a ton of potential on that end. pic.twitter.com/BATlVzqMjK

— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) April 22, 2019

If you’ve been assuming that Zion Williamson is heading to New York along with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, this should give you some pause.

Bet The Big Three?

With the odds changing quite a bit this year, it seems like this has become something that’s very difficult to predict. Before, the worst team would make sense to bet. Now it’s a wide-open race.

The only way I see to bet this is to split your bet three ways on each of the top three teams. If you bet on a team like the Knicks at +500, they have a 14% chance to win the lottery but your implied odds are 16.7%. That’s a losing proposition.

On behalf of Horace Spencer,

We would like to give our congratulations to NBA Draft Lottery Pick Zion Williamson for declaring today. pic.twitter.com/v8sz46RxHP

— Fly War Eagle (@FlyWarEagle) April 16, 2019

While your odds don’t exactly change if you bet on three teams, I personally like my chances much more. Taking one team is a dart throw; taking the top three at least covers 42% of the board. Of course, I’ll lose two of those bets but split evenly, I’ll still come away with +300 if one of those top teams, in fact, wins.