Lakers Heavily Favored to Make 2020 NBA Playoffs, Pelicans Expected to Miss Out

• The Los Angeles Lakers are likely to only have about $23 million in cap space
• While they won’t add another max player, they already have a Big Three with Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Kyle Kuzma
• The New Orleans Pelicans are not far off from being a playoff team and adding someone like Bradley Beal could get them closer

The Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans have completed a trade for Anthony Davis. Both teams appear to be happy with where they are. Posted odds on where the two teams will end up next season with the Lakers favored to make the playoffs and the Pelicans favored to miss out. Which is the better bet?

Los Angeles Lakers 2020 NBA Playoff Odds

*Odds taken 06/18/19

Trade Timing Matters

One important factor on this trade is the timing of it. If the trade proceeds as planned on July 6th and Anthony Davis takes his $4 million bonus for being traded (as expected), the Lakers will only have about $23 million in cap space. If the trade happens at the end of the month and Davis waves his bonus, the Lakers could have about $32 million.

That’s the difference between the Lakers adding a third superstar or not. Guys like Kemba Walker and Kyrie Irving might take a small pay cut and sign for the $32 million, but there’s almost no chance they take that sizable of a pay cut. That means the Lakers will have to use their remaining cap space to fill out the roster in other ways.

Lakers a Risky Bet at This Point

Are the Lakers likely to make the playoffs next season? Of course. Are they worth risking -2500 right now? I would say no. The reason is we don’t know who else is going to be on their roster and it’s hard to trust the main man in the front office: Rob Pelinka. Remember, this is a guy that spent a chunk of his cap on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and essentially called him a godsend.

Now, if the Lakers are shrewd here and sign guys like Patrick Beverley or Malcolm Brogdon, acquire shooters like Bojan Bogdanovic, Terrence Ross or JJ Redick, and round out their bench with someone like Avery Bradley or Trevor Ariza, then we’re cooking.

A roster with that type of talent would genuinely be among the championship favorites. However, if we see them blow their bank on DeMarcus Cousins and Reggie Bullock, I’d rather pass. They’d essentially be one injury away from being completely useless like they were last season.

Lakers Already Have a Big Three

Why I wouldn’t fault anyone if they wanted to bet the Lakers to make the playoffs here is because they have a Big Three already: Davis, LeBron James and Kyle Kuzma. They don’t necessarily need another max player.

James and Davis are probably two of the top 5 players in the league – top 10 at worst – and while Kuzma isn’t near their level, he’s still a guy that averaged 18.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists last year.

When you look at the Western Conference, that trio is better than almost anyone else’s. Even if they’re surrounded by a cast of scrubs, they should be good enough to make the playoffs.

Pick: Yes (-2500)

New Orleans Pelicans 2020 NBA Playoff Odds

Pelicans Worth a Play

I do like the Pelicans at +180 as a flier to make the playoffs next season. They already have a decent starting lineup with Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, and Zion Williamson. They’re also going to either add another piece: either the no. 4 pick in the draft or – if rumors are correct – another veteran who can help them now. They’re shopping the pick.

As to who might they get? That’s a big question mark, but names that have been thrown out there are guys like Bradley Beal and Mike Conley Jr. The latter doesn’t make a ton of sense, but if the Pelicans can get their hands on Beal or even if they just add an NBA-ready player to round out their roster, they could already be close.

There’s no question there’s a bit of a risk here as the reality is that they won’t be good enough to win 48-50 games next season, but at +180 and given the fact that they’re adding a lot of quality in the coming days, I wouldn’t be surprised. It’s worth a flier.

Pick: Yes (+180)