Luka Doncic Shortens From +2000 to +700 in MVP Odds; Does He Have a Legitimate Shot to Win?

• Luka Doncic is now a top-four NBA MVP contender
• Doncic is the only player in the NBA to rank in the top-10 in scoring, rebounds and assists
• He’s the main reason why the Mavericks have the best offensive rating in the NBA

Imagine being 20 years old and one of the biggest stars in the NBA. That’s Luka Doncic’s new reality, and his exceptional play this season has skyrocketed his name up the MVP odds board.

2019-20 NBA MVP Odds

Odds taken on Nov. 20

Doncic now has the fourth shortest NBA MVP odds behind only the reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, and former winners James Harden and LeBron James.

Last season’s Rookie of the Year is currently on pace to produce one of the greatest sophomore campaigns in NBA history, and could conceivably elevate the Mavericks from the lottery to the playoffs in just a single year.

Elite Company

Doncic is the only player in the NBA to rank in the top ten in scoring (4th), rebounding (10th) and assists (2nd). He has a league best six triple-doubles in 13 games and recently became just the second player in NBA history to record a 40-point triple-double before the age of 21.

Game on line, Luka Doncic becomes second player in NBA history with a 40-point triple-double under age of 21. The other player? LeBron. pic.twitter.com/kvnUzaq6VT

— Ben Wobbins (@WorldWideWob) November 19, 2019

It’s fitting that the only other player to accomplish the feat is James, given he was Doncic’s favorite player growing up. Doncic’s second season stats are on pace to dwarf what LeBron did in his sophomore season, as he’s averaging more points, rebounds and assists than the King did back in 2004-05.

Doncic vs James Sophomore Season Comparison

Luka also has a higher field goal percentage, PER, offensive and defensive rating than James did as a sophomore, and he’s putting up better numbers than almost every other 20-year-old before him. No other player below the age of 21 has averaged more points or assists than Doncic, and only three players (Shaq, Dwight Howard and Andre Drummond) have averaged more rebounds.

One Man Show

The best argument for Doncic’s MVP case is the fact that he’s putting up these gaudy stats without a strong supporting cast. His most talented teammate Kristaps Porzingis is off to a very slow start, and the rest of the Mavs starting five would be role players at best on most other teams.

Is Luka Doncic a legit MVP candidate? He’s not even turning 21 until February…only three players have ever finished in the top-5 in MVP voting at that age: Tim Duncan, LeBron and Kevin Durant. pic.twitter.com/AyYqhKifGR

— Rachel Nichols (@Rachel__Nichols) November 20, 2019

Nevertheless, Dallas has the best offensive rating in the NBA, scoring 110.3 points per 100 possessions. That’s marginally better than the Rockets and Bucks, and three points higher than the Lakers and Clippers.

The Mavs are currently 8-5, good for 5th in the West, but without Doncic they’d be toiling near the bottom of the standings alongside the injury riddled Warriors. He touches the ball more than anyone else in the league (103 times per game) and he leads all qualifying players in field goal percentage off of drives.

Can Luka Overtake Harden

While Doncic is a one-man show in Dallas, Harden continues to raise the offensive bar in Houston. He’s averaging 39.2 points per game, which is the most since Wilt Chamberlain put up 44.8 per contest in 1962-63. Last year, he was the first player in NBA history to average at least 35 a game with a true shooting percentage above 60%, and this year his true shooting percentage is even higher.

MVP things: James Harden goes on a personal 12-0 run to turn a 2-point deficit to a 10-point lead ? pic.twitter.com/c89IeRpZdn

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) November 16, 2019

He’s led the Rockets to eight straight wins, scoring at least 35 in every game, and despite the presence of Russell Westbrook, his usage is actually higher than a season ago. It’s impossible to deny his offensive greatness, and while he may not put up the same type of rebound and assist totals as Doncic, he’s one of the greatest scorers of all-time.

After the first 14 games of the season, James Harden is averaging 8.9 POINTS more than the NBA’s next highest scorer ? pic.twitter.com/G910ngRrUE

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) November 20, 2019

If he’s able to maintain his current pace, he’ll run away with the MVP award, making it hard to back Luka at his new price.

Doncic was 20-1 two weeks ago and 42-1 in the summer, so 7-1 doesn’t feel like enough value to fire at. Doncic appears to be a generational talent, but his first MVP award will likely have to wait at least one more season.