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Mavericks vs Heat Odds and Picks (April 1)
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- Miami is a 1-point favorite in the Mavericks vs Heat odds on Saturday
- Kyle Lowry (knee) and Bam Adebayo (hip) are both questionable for Miami
- Check out the latest Mavericks vs Heat odds here, plus injury updates and best bets
The Dallas Mavericks have picked the wrong time to fall into a slump. Dallas enters play on Saturday losers of five of their last six, and are in serious danger of missing the postseason. Not something you’d expect from a team that features Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
The Mavs will travel to Miami to take on the Heat in one of only two games on the Saturday slate, and oddsmakers are not bullish on their chances of making up ground in the West’s postseason race. Miami opened as the chalk in the NBA odds, in spite of some significant injury concerns.
Mavericks vs Heat Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | +1 (-110) | -105 | OFF |
| Miami Heat | -1 (-110) | -115 | OFF |
The Heat are currently 1-point favorites, in a contest without a total as of Friday night. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30pm ET at the Miami-Dade Arena in Miami, FL, and will mark the second and final meeting between these two squads this season.
Odds as of March 31 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mavericks vs Heat Injury Report
Here’s what we currently know. Both Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo are listed as questionable for Saturday. Lowry is dealing with a knee issue that forced him to sit out Miami’s latest game versus New York. Adebayo meanwhile, has been downgraded to questionable after injuring his hip against the Knicks on Thursday.
Kyle Lowry is questionable for tomorrow, per usual. So is Bam Adebayo with a hip contusion he suffered on a fall in New York.
— Wes Goldberg (@wcgoldberg) March 31, 2023
The Heat have plenty of experience playing without their point guard, as the team is 14-12 in the 26 games that Lowry has sat. Adebayo has been much more reliable, missing only five games. Miami is 3-2 in those outings, winning each of the past three contests he’s missed.
Mavericks vs Heat Betting Trends
This game is significant for Dallas and Miami, as both are trending in the wrong direction in the NBA playoff bracket. The Mavericks are currently on the outside of the postseason picture looking in, sitting a game back of OKC for the West’s final Play-In Tournament berth.
Dallas suffered a major blow last weekend dropping back-to-back games versus the lowly Hornets, and followed up those two defeats by beating Indiana and falling to Philadelphia.
The remainder of the Mavs schedule is relatively favorable as three of their next four games are versus teams with a sub-.500 record. The addition of Kyrie Irving has not yielded the returns Dallas expected, as they’re just 7-10 with him in the lineup.
The major issue has been on offense, where the team is averaging just 113 points per outing over their last six games. They rank 17th in offensive rating during that stretch, despite some monster games from Luka Doncic.
I hope all of you national media pundits watched tonight’s game and saw why Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have not resulted in wins together… they have the worst head coach in the NBA and are surrounded by role players who do not know how to play basketball
— ♟️ (@Coopz___) March 30, 2023
The 24-year-old is averaging 31 points, nine assists and nine rebounds over his last five starts, but Dallas has only one win to show for it. Irving meanwhile, is averaging 26 points and six assists since joining the Mavs, but the rest of the supporting cast are adding little offensively.
As for Miami, they’re in a funk of their own. They’ve dropped three straight to fall out of a playoff spot. They currently occupy the first Play-In Tournament berth in the East, but this is not the season they were expecting after being Eastern Conference Finalists in 2022.
The Heat’s offense has been non-existent over their skid, averaging 94.6 points in their last three contests. That gives them the second-worst offensive rating in the league over that time frame, and since the All-Star Break they rank 22nd in that category. Expect the offensive struggles to continue if both Lowry and Adebayo are ruled out.
Mavericks vs Heat Predictions
When it comes to the betting market, no team has a lower cover rate than Miami. The Heat have beaten the spread in only 36.5% of their games this season, and are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 outings. They’ve been especially bad as home favorites, covering on just 10 of 35 occasions.
Dallas has had its share of troubles covering games recently as well, but this is as essentially a must-win game. Their top two stars are putting up big numbers and should have no problem continuing to do so against the depleted Heat. Adebayo’s injury is of major concern, and if he sits the Luka and Co. will absolutely abuse Miami in the paint. With their season on the line, roll with the Mavs.
Pick: Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (-105)
Chris Amberley
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
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