Mavs vs Suns Predictions, Props & Betting Splits

• The Suns are 12.5-point favorites over the Mavs in a game with a 233.5-point total
• Phoenix’s top-10 defense and a series of Dallas injuries make this contest an under candidate
• See the Mavs vs Suns predictions below, plus props and the latest odds and betting splits

The Dallas Mavericks travel to Phoenix tonight to face the Suns, and will be doing so as huge underdogs in the NBA odds. Phoenix is currently laying 12.5-points, but I’m looking to bet the game’s 233.5 point total instead.

The hometown Suns are looking to shake off a tough recent loss to the Rockets, leaning heavily on the elite half-court orchestration and shot-making of star guard Devin Booker. On the other side, the visiting Mavericks hope to rebound from a double-digit defeat against the Clippers, spearheaded by their own dynamic young scorer, Cooper Flagg.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7 PM PT, 10 PM ET from the Mortgage Matchup Center, in Phoenix, AZ, with live broadcast coverage available on KFAA, AZFamily, and Suns+.

Here are my Mavs vs Suns predictions, plus props and the latest odds and betting splits.

Mavs vs Suns Predictions

• Under 233.5 (-105 at Caesars)
• Cooper Flagg Over 28.5 Points (-112 at DraftKings)

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My favorite Mavs vs Suns prediction is under 233.5 points. Dallas is currently facing a catastrophic shortage of big men. With Dereck Lively II out for the year, P.J. Washington ruled out, and Daniel Gafford listed as Day To Day, they have virtually no resistance left in the paint. The perimeter situation isn’t much better. With so many rotation players sidelined, expect a massive drain on offensive firepower.

The trends meanwhile, also point towards the under. That side of the total has cashed at a staggering 83.3% rate in the Mavericks’ last 12 games on the road. With both squads navigating the fatigue of a back-to-back, I expect heavy legs and erratic perimeter shooting to keep this final score well under the 233.5 point number.

Mavs vs Suns Stats

Phoenix enters this contest preferring to grind out half-court possessions, ranking 24th in pace. Because the road team struggles mightily with offensive efficiency, ranking a dismal 29th in Offensive Rating (108.1), forcing Dallas into a slower game heavily favors the home defense. Phoenix boasts a top-10 Defensive Rating (110.8) and has the defensive chops to drag their opponents into the mud.

As for the NBA props market, Dallas’ massive wing and frontcourt depletion leaves Flagg no choice but to shoulder a monstrous usage rate. Even in games that trend under the total, he commands the volume necessary to eclipse his points prop. Flagg has multiple 45+ point nights in two of his last three starts, taking 25+ shots in each of those contests.

Mavs vs Suns Odds

When it comes to betting the total, make sure to visit Caesars. They’re hanging a 233.5 point line while the rest of the market is a point lower. Spread-wise, FanDuel has the best line on a Mavs cover, while DK is the place to wager at if you want to back the Suns.

As for Flagg’s player prop line, DK is also the preferred book of choice, offering lower juice on the line than their competitors.

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Mavs vs Suns Betting Splits

Over to the NBA public betting splits, where the most glaring disparity on the board tonight involves the game’s total.

Bettors are blindly throwing their cash at a shootout. The over has absorbed 94.1% of all tickets and a massive 93.9% of the overall stake. This presents an incredibly strong contrarian opportunity. With the numbers pointing toward tired legs and suppressed scoring, stepping in front of the public consensus and backing the under offers excellent value. I am not blindly fading the public, but the situational fatigue makes going against the grain a sharp play tonight.