NBA Friday Betting Preview: Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers

It wasn’t long ago that most of America was writing off the Cavs. Fans and pundits alike complained that Cleveland was too old, too slow, and far too disinterested to return to the NBA Finals for the fourth consecutive year. They were headed for irrelevance, critics gleefully proclaimed, and LeBron James would be wearing another uniform within a matter of months.

That’s when something curious happened. The Cavs started winning, and winning big. They beat the Pistons by 28, and crushed the Sixers and Bulls by 22 points each. They’ve now won 13 straight and are just 3.5 games behind the Celtics for first place in the Eastern Conference.

The key to their revival has been stellar defense. Tristan Thompson’s absence has forced Cleveland to go smal, and the Cavs have been switching relentlessly on the perimeter and smothering ball-handlers. They’re now limiting teams to 102.9 points per 100 possessions and have crept into the top ten in defensive rating for the first time this season. They’re not reminding anyone of the 2003-04 Pistons, but their commitment to trapping and playing solid help defense has the Cavs back in the championship conversation.

The Pacers haven’t cracked the East’s upper echelon, but they’ve been enjoying a renaissance of their own lately. Indiana is 7-3 in its last ten games and has recorded commanding victories over Detroit, Miami, and Toronto during that stretch. The emergence of Victor Oladipo, who is averaging 23.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.9 steals per game, has been the biggest story in the Hoosier state. His ability to push the tempo has allowed Indiana to unlock a new gear that few thought they possessed. The Pacers now rank tenth in pace and seventh in points per game at 108.4

Indiana doesn’t have as much talent as Cleveland, but their ability to run other teams into the ground gives them a bona fide shot at stealing a victory and ending the Cavs’ 13-game streak.

Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers Team Stats

OFFENSE

DEFENSE

Recent Results

PACERS: Indiana overcame a sluggish start to down the Bulls 98-96 on Wednesday night. Oladipo saved the day for the Pacers, scoring 27 points and nailing the game-winning three with 31.1 seconds left. Bojan Bogdanovic chipped in 17 points for Indiana, and Myles Turner anchored the D with seven rebounds and a game-high four blocks.

CAVALIERS: The Cavs defeated Sacramento 101-95 on Wednesday night to tie a franchise record with their 13th consecutive win. James led the way with 32 points on 12 of 18 shooting, and sealed the victory by hitting a game-winning three-pointer with 16 seconds remaining. Kevin Love had another solid game, scoring 18 points and hauling in 13 rebounds. The four-time All-Star has now recorded four double-doubles in his last four starts.

Head-to-Head Results

The Pacers and Cavs were in very different head spaces when they met for the first time this season on November 1st. Indiana was riding high after a pair of victories over San Antonio and Sacramento, while Cleveland was fresh off three consecutive losses and had just held an intense players-only meeting in an attempt to right the ship.

Whatever was said behind closed doors didn’t seem to help, as the Cavs fell behind early and lost 124-107. Thaddeus Young led the way for the Pacers with 26 points on 12 of 18 shooting, and Darren Collison and Victor Oladipo combined to score 48 as they ran circles around Derrick Rose and J.R. Smith.

LeBron James paced the Cavs with 33 points and 11 assists, but was uncharacteristically careless with the ball. He took responsibility for the loss afterwards, pointing to his season-high eight turnovers. “That’s way too many,” he said. “I’ve been in the three or four range, but when you double that, that’s not a good ingredient for your team to be successful.”

Notable Injuries and Absences

PACERS: Glenn Robinson III

Robinson III is continuing to rehab his surgically-repaired left ankle. The Pacers have not set a timetable for his return, although he could be back by early 2018.

CAVALIERS: Derrick Rose, Isaiah Thomas, Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert

Cleveland continues to lead the league in players wearing street clothes. Rose, Thomas, and Thompson have all returned to practice, but it’s unclear when they will return to active duty. Shumpert underwent meniscus surgery to repair a small tear in his left knee on Friday and is expected to be sidelined for up to eight weeks.

Betting the Moneyline

BEST PACERS MONEYLINE: +140

BEST CAVALIERS MONEYLINE: -155

PACERS STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• Indiana is 8-4 SU at home this season
• Indiana is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games
• Indiana is 10-6 SU against the Eastern Conference
• Indiana is 7-6 SU after a win this season
• Indiana is 6-7 SU on one day of rest this season

CAVALIERS STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• Cleveland is 9-3 SU on the road this season
• Cleveland is 10-0 SU in their last 10 games
• Cleveland is 14-5 SU against the Eastern Conference
• Cleveland is 13-4 SU after a win this season
• Cleveland is 12-2 SU on one day of rest this season

EXPERT MONEYLINE ADVICE: CAVALIERS (-155)

Make no mistake about it, these aren’t the same Cavs that the Pacers throttled in early November. That slow-footed squad has been replaced by an elite unit that pushes the pace on offense and hounds opposing players on D. Jae Crowder has emerged from his early-season stupor to shut down the league’s top wings, while Dwyane Wade has shaken off the cobwebs to shore up one of the NBA’s best benches. It seems impossible, but LeBron James may also be getting better with age. The four-time MVP is averaging 28.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game and is posting the best true shooting percentage, three-point percentage, assist percentage, and block percentage of his 15-year career.

The Pacers took advantage of a team in serious disarray when they beat the Cavs earlier this season. James won’t allow that to happen tonight.

Betting Against the Spread

BEST PACERS SPREAD: +3.5 (-110)

BEST CAVALIERS SPREAD: -3.5 (-110)

PACERS AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS

• Indiana is 15-10 ATS this season (60-percent)
• Indiana is 7-5 ATS at home this season
• Indiana is 8-6 as an underdog this season
• Indiana is on a one-game ATS losing streak

CAVALIERS AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS

• Cleveland is 8-16-1 ATS this season (33-percent)
• Cleveland is 7-5 ATS on the road this season
• Cleveland is 12-8 as a favorite this season
• Cleveland is on a one-game ATS losing streak

EXPERT AGAINST THE SPREAD ADVICE: CAVALIERS (-3.5)

Cleveland has been notoriously bad against the spread this season, but many of those losses occurred early in the year when the team was both underperforming and overvalued by most sportsbooks. The Cavs have since become a safer bet, particularly against division rivals, as their 3-2-1 ATS record and +4.1 plus/minus rating indicates. This one will be close, but the surging Cavs should cover.

Game Total Betting

BEST OVER ODDS: 218.5 (-110)

BEST UNDER ODDS: 218.5 (-110)

PACERS TOTALS TRENDS

• Indiana is 12-12-1 O/U this season
• Indiana is 4-7-1 O/U at home this season

CAVALIERS TOTALS TRENDS

• Cleveland is 13-11-1 O/U this season
• Cleveland is 6-6 O/U on the road this season

EXPERT TOTALS ADVICE: Over 219 (-110)

Indiana and Cleveland average a combined 219.5 points per game, and there’s reason to believe they’ll surpass that total tonight given their recent success. The Cavs are averaging 112.5 points over their past ten games and have made at least ten three-pointers per contest during that span. The Pacers, meanwhile, are averaging 111.9 points over their past ten games, and have scored 115 points or more in four of their last five outings. Both teams are rested and trending upwards, and should have no issue lighting up the scoreboard.

Additional SU Picks

Pacers vs Cavaliers is just one of eight games on tap on Friday night. Here are our other seven straight-up picks.