Nuggets & Jazz Meet in Key Northwest Division Clash With Denver Laying 1.5 Points

• The Nuggets are just 9-6 in their last 15 games.
• Denver’s points-per-game allowed over that span ranks 17th (versus 4th overall on the season).
• Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee are all out on Thursday due to injuries.

The Denver Nuggets started the season 23-9 but have mostly been treading water since. They are 9-6 in their last 15 games and just 3-3 in their last six.

That’s allowed the Utah Jazz to catch them in the standings, which makes Thursday’s matchup of Northwest Division foes all the more important.

Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets Odds

Odds taken Jan. 30th

The Nuggets Have Cooled Off

There’s no question that the Nuggets have struggled of late, but at a closer look, there’s a very basic reason as to why: while they’re 9-6 in their last 15 games, 10 of those contests have been on the road compared to just five at home.

For a team with a .750 winning percentage at home compared to .608 on the road, that’s a big deal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjM2ZdqTWG8

It’s worth noting that the Nuggets have had some disappointing efforts at home of late too, though, as they’re just 3-2 in their last five at the Pepsi Center. A loss at home to Indiana as a one-point dog is understandable, but a loss at home to the Cleveland Cavaliers as a 12.5-point favorite is unacceptable.

Injuries Weighing Down Denver

Another reason why the Nuggets have underachieved of late is that they’ve haven’t been playing with a full deck. Star point guard Jamal Murray hasn’t played since January 15th and he’ll be out again on Thursday. At 17.6 PPG with 4.6 assists and 4.1 rebounds, he’s a tough player to replace.

Beyond Murray, Garry Harris missed a chunk of January, although he returned a week ago, and Paul Millsap hasn’t played since January 6th and will miss Thursday’s contest as well as Mason Plumlee. Between Millsap and Murray, that’s nearly 30 points per game subtracted from the team.

Paul Millsap, Jamal Murray and Mason Plumlee are all out for tomorrow night’s nationally televised clash with the Jazz.

— Nick Kosmider (@NickKosmider) January 29, 2020

They’ve actually felt it more on the defensive side, though, as the Nuggets are fourth in the NBA in points per game allowed this season, but have dropped to 17th over their last 15 games, allowing 6.2 more points per game in this stretch.

Jazz Were Red Hot

The Jazz have had a nearly opposite season to the Nuggets in the season that they started so-so but have been red-hot of late. Since starting 14-11, the Jazz are 18-4 over their last 22 games. That’s why on Wednesday, they became favorites to win the Northwest Division for the first time since October 16th.

What’s interesting to note about the Jazz is after Wednesday’s loss in San Antonio, they’ve now lost two in a row. That’s actually the first time they’ve lost consecutive games since December 4th.

Typically one of the top defensive teams in the NBA (they’re sixth in the NBA in points-per-game allowed at 106.2), they’ve been blown up the last couple of games. Both Houston and San Antonio scored at least 126 points, which ties for the third-highest point totals they’ve allowed this season.

Giving up 126 to the Rockets is understandable but how did they allow 127 to the Spurs, who were without LaMarcus Aldridge? The Jazz were red-hot for a while but maybe these two losses are a sign of a small change.

What’s the Best Bet?

This game feels like a bit of a toss-up. The Jazz would have been the play had they continued their roll. However, they’re in a back-to-back situation and have lost two straight. They don’t play well in Denver as they’ve lost three of their last four there.

The Jazz vs Nuggets odds have Denver as a small favorite. However, I’m looking at the over in this game as the Nuggets defense has struggled over their last 15 games and the Jazz all of the sudden have issues too. The over has actually hit in seven of the Jazz’s last nine and I’ll look for another over on Thursday.