Nuggets vs Rockets Picks & Predictions: Get a +525 Same-Game Parlay

• The 11-3 Denver Nuggets visit the 10-3 Houston Rockets in a marquee Friday night matchup
• Houston is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five
• See my Nuggets vs Rockets picks and predictions, including a +525 SGP on Nov. 21st

Western Conference powers collide on Friday night when Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (11-3, 5-2 away, 9-5 ATS, 8-6 O/U) visit Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets (10-3, 5-1 home, 9-4 ATS, 10-2-1 O/U) at the Toyota Center at 8:30 pm CT/:30 pm ET in NBA Cup play.

This will be the first of three meetings this season. Denver took two of three from Houston last year, including both games in Houston. But the Rockets obviously have a much different look this year with Durant in the fold.

Several starters and rotation players are game-time decisions, including Denver’s Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Houston’s Jabari Smith (knee) and Steven Adams (ankle), but the biggest guns are all healthy on both sides. Below, I have set out my favorite Nuggets vs Rockets picks and predictions, plus a three-leg, +525 same-game parlay, and the latest betting lines.

Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Picks

Altogether, I have three single bets I’m targeting (ATS, total, player prop). I have also set out the odds for those three bets in an SGP.

Nuggets vs Rockets ATS Pick: Houston Rockets -2.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Rockets enter this contest with several compelling trends that make them an attractive bet at home. Denver has struggled in the underdog role recently, and Houston has thrived when favored. The statistical profile of this matchup points towards a high-scoring affair where the home team ultimately dictates the terms of engagement. Given the short spread, the value lies with the Rockets to continue their strong performance in this specific scenario.

The betting trends provide a clear path forward. The Rockets have been excellent for bettors when favored, posting a 4-1 (.800) record against the spread in their last 5 games as a favorite. Conversely, the Nuggets have not fared well in the opposite role, going just 1-4 (.200) as an underdog over their last 5 games. With Houston laying just -2.5 points at home, these trends are too strong to ignore.

DEN vs HOU Game-Total Pick: Over 234.5 (-115) at BetMGM

For the total, all signs point to a shootout. Not only does Houston have the best over record in the NBA (10-2-1), but the over has cashed in each of the last three matchups between these two teams.

Houston’s recent form reinforces this trend, with the over hitting in four of their last five home games and four of their last five against opponents with a winning record. Even with a high total of 234.5, the offensive firepower and recent history suggest these teams get over that number.

Best DEN vs HOU Player Prop to Bet: Durant Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-180) at DraftKings

This prop represents a convergence of statistical reality and matchup dynamics that creates substantial value despite the heavy juice. Durant’s season-long three-point production sits at just 1.8 makes per game, well below the 2.5 threshold, while facing Denver’s suffocating perimeter defense that allows opponents to shoot just 31.2% from deep. Durant has only connected on three or more triples in three of 13 games.

Denver’s offense gets all the attention, and that’s not without justification; Jokic is the outright favorite in the NBA MVP odds and is still at the peak of his powers at age 30. But the Nugget defense is playing exceptionally well this season. They excel at running shooters off the three-point line through disciplined closeouts and active hands, forcing contested looks and longer twos.

Durant’s shot selection has skewed more toward mid-range attempts this season, a trend that should continue against Denver’s scheme that takes away the corners and forces tough pull-ups.

Nuggets vs Rockets Same-Game Parlay

• Leg 1: Rockets -2.5
• Leg 2: Over 235.5
• Leg 3: Durant Under 2.5 Threes
• Total SGP: +525 at DraftKings

The best option for an SGP with these three bets is DraftKings. You will have to take a total that’s one point higher (235.5 instead of 234.5) but it’s worth it. Taking this same parlay at BetMGM generates +450 odds, but DraftKings spits out a +525 number, which is worth the extra point.

DEN Nuggets vs HOU Rockets Odds

Currently, the best moneyline price on the Nuggets is +125 at ESPN Bet. The best moneyline price on Houston is -135 at bet365. The spread is HOU -2.5 across the board but there are slight variations in the odds. Denver bettors should take +2.5 (-108) at DraftKings, while Houston bettors should take -2.5 (-105) at Caesars.

The game total shows a one-point range now. Bet365 is on the low end and represents the best option for over bettors at 235.5 (-110). Caesars is on the high end and is the best option for under bettors at 236.5 (-110).

Note that the under 234.5 bet I already locked in is no longer available.

Odds commentary as of 2:06 pm ET. The odds in the table will update automatically to reflect the best-available price for each market if the NBA odds shift sufficiently over the course of the day.