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Odds Heavily in Favor of 76ers Re-Signing Jimmy Butler, Lakers Given 2-1 Odds

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 16, 2020 · 9:18 AM PDT

Jimmy Butler at the ESPYS
Jimmy Butler could be on the move again. Photo by Disney | ABC Television (flickr) [CC License]
  • The 76ers are massive favorites to re-sign Jimmy Butler this summer
  • From a financial standpoint it makes sense for Butler to stay in Philly, but if he values winning he should look elsewhere
  • Where is Butler likely to land in free agency?

Jimmy Butler’s performance in this year’s NBA Playoffs is going to earn him a monster raise, but the question is will the 76ers be the team that’s signing the check?

Butler has emerged as Philly’s leader in the postseason and the Sixers are now heavily favored to re-sign him when he opts out of his current contract this summer.

Jimmy Butler 2019 Free Agency Odds

Team Free Agency Odds
Philadelphia 76ers -250
Los Angeles Lakers +200
Brooklyn Nets +350
New York Knicks +500
Los Angeles Clippers +700
Dallas Mavericks +900
Indiana Pacers +900

*Odds taken on 05/08/19

Three months ago, you could have gotten plus money on Butler remaining in Philadelphia, but now the sportsbooks have completely reversed course which makes sense for Butler from a financial standpoint.

Philadelphia Can Offer the Most Money

Butler will be looking for a max deal once he hits free agency and only Philadelphia can offer him a five-year, $190 million contract. If Butler bolts, the most he could possibly sign for would be $141 million over four years. I’ve never met someone who was willing to throw away $50 million, and Butler doesn’t strike me as someone who would do that either.

Philly is a good fit for him because he doesn’t need to be the number one scorer on a nightly basis. He’s more of a secondary option than a lead dog, as evidenced by his stints in Chicago and Minnesota. Having guys like Joel Embiid around him to shoulder the offensive burden is incredibly helpful.

The downside of staying in Philadelphia is that the 76ers are a flawed team who won’t threaten for the title as long as they keep their current roster in place.

Why Butler Might Bounce

Ben Simmons is afraid to shoot and can’t succeed in the half court game, which is what playoff basketball is all about in the late moments. Embiid is a top-10 talent, but is always battling some kind of injury or illness, and is out of shape.

The Sixers look great when they’re on the break, but when they need a bucket late in games the offense too often stalls. Throw Butler’s rocky relationship with head coach Brett Brown into the mix, and all of a sudden Philly doesn’t seem like such an ideal location if he wants to chase a title.

What Will Jimmy Buckets Do Next?

If it were me, there’s no way I’d be able to turn down the extra money the Sixers can offer, but maybe Butler is wired differently. Playing with LeBron in LA sounds good in theory, until Butler realizes that he’ll only play off the ball and shoot spot up jumpers.


He’ll likely stay in Philly, and those odds will dramatically increase if the Sixers fire Brown once they are eliminated.

Pick: Philadelphia 76ers (-250)

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