Only 2 Games Back in Southwest, Spurs Given 4-1 Odds to Win Division
- The Spurs are +400 to win the Southwest despite trailing the Rockets by two games
- San Antonio has dropped the first four games on their current eight game road trip
- Is there value betting on the Spurs to win the division?
For the first time in over two decades, the San Antonio Spurs aren’t a lock to make the NBA playoffs. They’ve lost the first four games on their annual rodeo road trip and are now just a game ahead of the ninth place Clippers.
Jazz keep Spurs winless on Rodeo Trip https://t.co/lq8G3JGv9h #GoSpursGo pic.twitter.com/lpdfBqFWBo
— News 4 San Antonio (@News4SA) February 10, 2019
Online sportsbooks have adjusted quickly to the Spurs’ recent decline, and have made them a heavy underdog to overtake the Rockets for the Southwest Division title.
2019 NBA Southwest Division Odds
| Team | Odds at Book 1 | Odds at Book 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | -300 | -350 |
| San Antonio Spurs | +400 | +250 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | +1200 | +3000 |
| Dallas Mavericks | +1400 | +1600 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | +25000 | +7000 |
*Odds taken on 2/11
Houston currently leads San Antonio by two games, but has three fewer losses and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Spurs.
Where’s the D?
Great defense is a staple of a Gregg Popovich-led team. Prior to 2018-19, San Antonio had finished top five in defensive rating in each of the past six seasons, but this current Spurs team is a different story.
The Spurs’ roller coaster defense: https://t.co/8P7Y8Kivnc pic.twitter.com/osGZOLvkgu
— Paul Garcia (@PaulGarciaNBA) February 4, 2019
They rank 25th in defensive efficiency and are allowing 7.4 more points per 100 possessions this season compared to last. They’re forcing the third fewest turnovers in the league, and have allowed 135 points on seven separate occasions. Previously, they’d surrendered that many points only twice in Popovich’s entire 23 season reign.
Spurs defense just has collapsed. Doesn’t even look to be working that hard.
— SLC Dunk (@slcdunk) February 9, 2019
The Mid Range Quandary
On offense, San Antonio is resisting the NBA’s 3-point revolution, attempting more 2-point field goals than any other team in the league. While that boosts the shooting percentage of players like Demar Derozan the lack of a long range game hurts the Spurs versatility.
21 PTS and counting for @DeMar_DeRozan ? pic.twitter.com/1eFvpiOZBt
— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) February 9, 2019
They’ve attempted the second fewest threes in the league and Derozan hasn’t made one since December 26th. Critics have suggested all season they lack firepower, but instead of adding another scorer at the deadline, San Antonio stood pat.
Short the Spurs
All four of San Antonio’s losses on its current road trip were to potential West playoff teams by an average of 20.8 points. They’ve beaten just one playoff team since January 11th, and 13 of their final 24 games are against teams currently sitting in a postseason spot. Houston, on the other hand, has won seven of 10 and boasts the league’s most prolific scorer.
30+ PTS in 30 consecutive games!#JamesHarden #Rockets pic.twitter.com/XPdBDLSqsJ
— NBA (@NBA) February 12, 2019
With Harden playing out of his mind, and Chris Paul back from injury, the Rockets should coast to a second straight Southwest title, leaving the Spurs fighting for one of the West’s final two playoff spots.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
