Paul George Set for Bigger Workload as Clippers 5.5-Point Home Favorites to Nuggets

• Third-seeded Clippers host second-seeded Nuggets in a battle of top West teams
• Paul George has averaged just 25 minutes and 14.7 points per game since returning from injury
• Get the odds, our picks, and all the info you need to bet the game below

If the Los Angeles Clippers plan to reach their lofty expectations this season, they’re going to need a healthy roster — particularly, a healthy Paul George.

Slowly working his way back from a hamstring injury, it’s expected the Clips (39-19, 23-6 home) increase his workload in a crucial Friday night (Feb 28) matchup with the visiting Denver Nuggets (40-18, 17-11 away). Denver leads the sagging LA squad by a game for second in the West. Tip-off at Staples is set for 10:30pm ET.

Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers

*Odds taken February 27

At 23-6, Los Angeles owns the best home record in the Western Conference, which explains their +5.5 point advantage in the Nuggets vs Clippers odds. But is Denver catching them at the opportune time?

Clippers Haven’t Hit Stride All Season

For a team that seemed like a shoo-in for at least a trip to the NBA Finals, the Clippers have been a stop-and-start group that hasn’t been able to form a cohesive unit. Their most recent struggle has been a 6-5 mark in their last 11 games — and it coincides with the return of George, who missed the previous nine games with a hamstring injury.

I really enjoy Paul George & Kawhi Leonard pic.twitter.com/8az3ieqcpo

— Off the Glass (@otgbasketball) February 27, 2020

Sprinkled in that stretch are a 27-point blowout loss to the lowly Timberwolves, a pair of home losses to the Sacramento Kings, and getting dumped by a couple of East heavies in Boston and Philadelphia.

But during those games, what was expected to be a crunch-time five of Pat Beverley, Lou Williams, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Montrezl Harrell were together on the floor for grand total for 1.9 minutes. A combination of injuries and load management have given Doc Rivers little time to even see what lineups he can work with — and that’s before adding in midseason pickups like Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson.

Remember that time Paul George was an MVP Candidate directly between 2 years when he wasnt an All Star Selection?

— Milly🎲 (@Hoodie_Milly) February 27, 2020

And George has been handled gingerly since returning. Since the start of the new year, PG has played 35 minutes or more just one time. Playing just over 25 minutes a game, he’s averaging 14.7 points on 39.4% shooting from the field. He scored 15 points total in a pair of losses to the Celtics and 76ers, and then followed that up with 18 points total in two wins over the Grizzlies and Suns. He’s far from the MVP candidate of a year ago, but at least LA is building off two wins heading into Friday night.

Nuggets Getting Healthy

Like the Clippers, Denver has somehow cobbled together one of the best records in the West, despite losing major contributors Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, Will Barton and Michael Porter Jr for significant stretches on the season.

Just an exhibition of excellent teamwork.

Running away with this one! https://t.co/4QhWZMoiiq

— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) February 26, 2020

But Denver appears to be getting healthy, and the results are showing up on the board, with the Nuggets reeling off eight wins in their last 11 games. They’ve been able to get it done defensively all year, as they enter this contest giving up the fifth-lowest points per game in the entire NBA. One of their other strengths has been their three-point defense: teams are shooting just 34.2% from beyond the arc, which is the third best mark in the league.

On the other end of the court, the Nuggets have the sixth-best offensive rating in the league, though they are 19th in the league in scoring, putting up just over 110 points a game. They will be definitely challenged by the Clippers, who have the fifth best defensive rating in the league, and they trail the Nuggets just by a tick in three-point defense, allowing a lowly 34.3% mark from deep.

👀 This move by Jokic! https://t.co/EwKQee8V8j

— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) February 22, 2020

Denver’s success has been largely due to their all-star Nikola Jokic. After a sluggish start to the year, where he averaged around 15 points per game in October-November, he’s upped his scoring average every month. He’s been destroying February: in nine games, he’s averaging 26.0 points, 10.1 rebounds and 7.8 assists, while shooting a blistering 63.7% from the field and a healthy 38.1% from beyond the arc.

What’s the Best Bet?

The Clippers are a hard team to pin down, but they do have a strong 17-12 ATS mark at home this season. Denver isn’t a slouch either, holding steady at 13-13 ATS on the road. With both teams relatively healthy and, more importantly, available, we may be in store for a shootout in the West. Forget trying to pick against the spread, and expect a lot of points.

The pick: over 218.5 (-110)