Pelicans vs Mavericks Odds, Lines & Predictions (Jan. 7)

• Dallas is laying 7 points in the Pelicans vs Mavericks odds ahead of their Saturday matchup
• Zion Williamson (hamstring) and Brandon Ingram (toe) will not suit up for New Orleans
• Keep reading for the complete Pelicans vs Mavericks odds and predictions

Two of the West’s top four teams meet on Saturday in Dallas, as the Mavericks (22-17, 15-6 home) entertain the Pelicans (24-14, 7-10 away).

New Orleans hosted Brooklyn on Friday and the short turnaround for this contest, plus a depleted roster has oddsmakers feeling quite bullish on Dallas in the NBA odds.

Pelicans vs Mavericks Odds

Odds as of January 6 at Barstool. Claim the Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Pelicans vs Mavericks game.

The Mavericks opened up as 7-point favorites, in a contest that features a total of 225.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 pm ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX, a building where the Mavs have performed excellently at for the majority of the season.

New Orleans Pelicans Betting Analysis

New Orleans enters play without its top two scorers Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Williamson will miss his second straight game with a hamstring injury, and won’t be re-evaluated for another three weeks.

Ingram meanwhile, hasn’t played since late November due to a toe issue. He hopes to rejoin the team sometime during their current five-game road trip, but it’s unclear when.

Somehow, New Orleans has actually excelled without the services of their leading point producers. The Pelicans are 7-2 without Zion this season, and 15-8 when Ingram sits. They beat Dallas earlier in the campaign 113-111 without both stars, however that result seems to be a bit of an outlier.

Zion Williamson will miss several weeks due to a hamstring strain, per @wojespn pic.twitter.com/3cWhGsZeh2

— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) January 4, 2023

New Orleans has been playing the role of school yard bully lately. They beat up on bad teams, but struggle against good ones. They’ve dropped six of their last eight games against teams occupying a playoff spot, and haven’t beaten a squad away from home with an above .500 record since November 7th.

The Pelicans lack of quality wins recently hasn’t been due to a lack of offense, as they rank seventh in offensive rating for the season. Expect veteran CJ McCollum to shoulder the brunt of the offensive load against Dallas. His usage jumps from 26% with Ingram and Williamson on the court, to 30% when they’re off the floor.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

The Mavericks meanwhile, are fresh off a humbling 124-95 home loss to the Celtics on the nationwide stage. The defeat snapped Dallas’ seven-game winning streak, and given how NBA MVP odds frontrunner Luka Doncic performed, the Mavs never really had a chance.

Doncic managed just 23 points, after averaging 44.5 points over the previous five contests. He sat out the fourth quarter with ankle soreness, but despite being listed on the injury report he is expected to face the Pelicans.

The Celtics held Doncic to 7-of-23 from the floor, and the Mavs to 38% overall from the field. Dallas made only seven triples on 32 attempts, was out-rebounded by 10, and dished out 14 fewer assists.

Luka Doncic tonight:

23 Points
7-23 FG
0-6 3PT
4 Turnovers

LUKA MAGIC🪄 👀😱🔥 pic.twitter.com/O7arCF2BMK

— Hater Central (@TheHateCentral) January 6, 2023

It was their second most lopsided loss of the season, and the poor offensive showing was frankly shocking. Coming into the game, the Mavs were second in offensive rating over the previous seven games and had been dominant inside their own building.

Dallas is now 15-6 at home this season, boasting a 5.4 Net Rating. That’s nearly eight points higher than their road mark, and if extrapolated over the entire season it would rank second only to Boston.

On the injury front, starting power forward Dorian Finney-Smith (hip) remains out, while reserves Josh Green (elbow) and Maxi Kleber (hamstring) are dealing with long term injuries.

Pelicans vs Mavericks Predictions

Doncic’s down night was an outlier performance versus the Celtics, and we should expect a bounce back performance against New Orleans. He torched the Pels for 37 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists in their first meeting, and a similar stat line is likely on Saturday.

As everyone knows, as Luka goes the Mavericks go. Dallas is averaging 118.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, as opposed to just 104 when he rests. His mere presence on the court draws consistent double and triple teams, leaving his teammates wide open for easy looks. Those looks didn’t fall against Boston, but they should go down versus New Orleans.

NBA Top Over Records

The Pelicans underwhelming defense lately has led to an abundance of over tickets cashing. They’re yielding an average of 117 points per night over the last three weeks, and have seen eight of their last 11 contests eclipse the total.

Both the Mavs and Pels have seen their games go over at a top-seven rate this season, and this contest shapes up as another high-scoring affair.

Pick: Over 225.5 (-110)