Picks, Predictions, Props to Bet & Injuries: Knicks vs Raptors NBA Cup Quarterfinal
By Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball
Published:
- New York’s elite rebounding and top-five offensive rating create a significant mismatch against a struggling Toronto team
- The Raptors are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten games
- See my top picks and best bets for Knicks vs Raptors on Dec. 9, plus the player props, latest odds, line movement, and betting splits
The stakes are raised as two the New York Knicks (16-7, 3-6 away, 15-8 ATS, 12-11 O/U) visit the Toronto Raptors (15-10, 8-5 home, 10-15 ATS, 11-14 O/U) in a win-or-go-home NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinal at 8:30 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video.
From a betting perspective, all eyes are on the Knicks’ injury report, as the status of star center Karl-Anthony Towns (22.5 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 3.4 APG), who’s battling a calf injury, looms large over the spread. His availability represents the single biggest factor that could swing the game. The Raptors, playing without the injured RJ Barrett (19.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.8 APG), will embrace the role of dangerous home underdog.
This Knicks/Raptors betting preview will dissect the stats, matchups, and trends to find best picks and player props to target.
Go to: PLAYER PROPS || ODDS || PICKS || BETTING SPLITS
NY Knicks vs TOR Raptors Player Props
Towns’ scoring prop sits relatively balanced at 21.5 points, but the most telling market movement centers on his assists line at 3.5 with heavy -160 juice on the over. This pricing indicates books anticipate Towns operating extensively from the high post, exploiting favorable matchups to find open shooters in this elimination setting. His rebounding prop (10.5) carries -121 juice toward the under, suggesting the market expects his focus to shift toward floor spacing and facilitating rather than crashing the glass aggressively.
Barnes represents Toronto’s best hope for an upset, reflected in his 19.5-point prop with consensus odds of over -123 and under -107. His assists prop carries significant -155 juice toward the over at 5.5, while his rebounding line at 8.5 is juiced to the over at -126. The market clearly projects Barnes as Toronto’s offensive catalyst, initiating transition opportunities and controlling possession battles.
New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors Odds
Despite Towns’ questionable status, the Knicks range from 5.0 to 5.5-point betting favorites. The best New York ATS price is currently -5.0 (-108) at BetRivers. The best Toronto ATS price is +5.5 (-115) at BetMGM.
On the moneyline, BetMGM again has the best odds on Toronto at +180, while FanDuel and Fanatics have a market-best price on a New York win (-200).
There is a full two-point range in the game total still. DraftKings has the best option for over bettors at 225.5 (-122) while BetRivers has the best option for under bettors at 227.5 (-120).
Odds and commentary as of 2:22 pm ET. The prices in the table, above, will update to show the best-available NBA odds for each betting market over the course of the day.
Knicks vs Raptors Predictions: Expert Picks for Spread, Game Total, Player Props
ATS PICK: Knicks -5.0 at BetRivers
The betting market has spoken loudly in this matchup, painting a story of two teams on opposite trajectories. The line movement alone tells a compelling narrative: the Knicks opened as slight 2.5-point favorites, but that number has been bet up to -5.0, signaling strong professional and public backing for New York despite the uncertainty around Towns.
The situational trends strongly favor laying the points with New York. The Raptors have been a money-burner for bettors recently, posting a dismal 2-8 record against the spread over their last ten games.
The Raps’ struggles are equally present as underdogs, covering just once in their last four. Conversely, the Knicks have won eight of their last ten games outright. While the Raptors enjoy home-court advantage, their recent performance provides little confidence they can buck these negative trends on Tuesday.
GAME TOTAL PICK: Under 227.5 (-122) at BetRivers
Simultaneously, the game total has plummeted a full four points from its opening of 231.5 down to 227.5 (or lower). This suggests sharp money anticipates a gritty, half-court battle rather than an up-tempo shootout.
The massive line drop aligns perfectly with New York’s recent results as favorites. The over has hit in just two of the Knicks’ last nine games as chalk. In a winner-take-all tournament game where defensive intensity should be a little higher than a regular-season contest, the number of possessions should tick down.
PLAYER PROP PICK: Scottie Barnes Under 21.5 Points (-112) at FanDuel
With the game projected as a defensive struggle and Barrett sidelined, the Knicks will undoubtedly make shutting down Toronto’s primary scoring option their top priority. In a contest where points figure to be at a premium, betting the under on Barnes’ prop represents a logical extension of the overall game handicap.
Barnes’ point total is as low as 19.5 at some books but remains an inflated 21.5 at FanDuel. Barnes’ last month strongly backs an under bet at that number. He’s stayed under 21.5 points in 11 of his last 17 games, including both of the last two. In Toronto’s only previous game against the Knicks this season, Barnes had just 18 points in 32 minutes, shooting 7-of-17 from the field.
NYK vs TOR Public Betting Splits: Sharp Money Fading the Over
The betting public has taken a decisive stance on this tournament showdown, overwhelmingly backing the New York Knicks and a high-scoring affair. However, a deeper examination of the NBA public betting splits reveals a significant contrast between recreational preferences and sharp action, particularly regarding the game total.
Moneyline: New York has attracted a 79.4% of all moneyline bets and 71.3% of the total ATS handle, leaving the Raptors with just 20.6% of tickets and 28.7% of the money.
Spread: The confidence in New York extends to the point spread. Bettors are comfortable laying the points with the road favorite, as the Knicks capture 63.2% of the bets against the spread. The money distribution is slightly less lopsided but still favors New York, which draws 59.6% of the stake.
Total: An overwhelming majority – 87.4% of all bets – are backing the game to go OVER the total. But this mountain of tickets corresponds with only 80.6% of the total money wagered. That means the 12.5% of wagers on the under are much bigger on average and, coupled with the line movement toward the under, is a solid indication that sharps are on the under tonight.
Sign Up for SBD’s Newsletter Now
Did you want the latest sports betting news, analysis, picks, betting trends, and relevant data straight to your inbox? If so, you’ll want to subscribe to SBD’s newsletter now!
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
