Raptors vs Celtics Player Props & Picks for Friday

• Boston is 2-0 vs Toronto this season
• Deep-dive analysis makes the case for the Raptors (+8.5) to cover the spread
• Jaylen Brown’s usage is set to skyrocket

Under normal circumstances, we’d hype Toronto’s trip to Boston tonight as a potential NBA playoff series preview. And it still might be.

But Jayson Tatum’s absence again changes how we view this particular game. Tip-off is set for 7 pm, ET, Friday (NBCS-BOS and SportsNet).

The Raptors enter as clear underdogs but are coming off a gritty 97-96 victory over the Charlotte Hornets, their third consecutive victory. The Celtics are looking to bounce back at home after losing 114-110 to the Denver Nuggets.

Tatum still is recovering from an Achilles’ injury and hasn’t played this year, but there is hope now that he might return this season. That hasn’t been a given.

That won’t help Boston tonight, but it’s worth noting the Celtics are 2-0 vs. the Raptors this season without him.

Can the Raptors cover a substantial spread, or will Jaylen Brown’s scoring prove too much? Let’s break it down and offer our best bet.

Celtics vs Raptors Best Bets & Player Props for January 9

The value lies with the underdog Raptors, who have won three consecutive games. Boston has been a machine at home, winning seven of their last nine games at TD Garden, and has been a solid bet as a favorite, going 3-1 against the spread in their last four games. However, laying 8.5 points is a tall order.

The Raptors are hot, winning four of their last five. While Toronto has struggled to cover on the road recently (1-3 ATS in their last four), its newfound identity and momentum make it a live dog to keep this within single digits. We expect the Celtics to win, but our AI tools suggest the Raptors’ defense and transition offense will be enough to cover.

I’m more skeptical, however, especially if Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes are limited. Both are listed as questionable. Further, the Celtics beat the Raptors by 16 in Toronto on Dec. 20 — after beating them by 8 in Toronto on Dec. 7.

Best Player Prop: Jaylen Brown Over 28.5 Points (-120) at Bet365

Brown not only leads the Celtics in scoring, he’s fourth in the NBA at 29.7 points per game. He went off for 50 three games ago at the Los Angeles Clippers. He scored 30 in the Celtics’ eight-point win over Toronto on Dec. 7.

He’s obviously difficult to contain under any circumstance, but we like him to stay hot tonight and exceed the over against the Raptors.

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Raptors vs Celtics Betting Trends

• The Raptors are 4-1 straight up in their last 5 games
• The Celtics have won 7 of their last 9 games at TD Garden
• As a favorite, Boston has been profitable for bettors, going 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 opportunities
• Despite their recent success, the Raptors have struggled to cover on the road, posting a 1-3 ATS record in their last 4 road games
• Looking at their last six games, however, Toronto has been a better bet, covering the spread in four of those contests (4-2 ATS)

Sharp Money Analysis: Market Divided on Celtic Spread Value

An analysis of the NBA public betting splits reveals a divide between the volume of bets and the actual money being wagered, particularly on the moneyline and total. While the public has clear favorites, the money flow suggests a more contested matchup than the odds might indicate.

Spread Analysis: The public is siding with the road underdog. The Raptors are attracting the majority of the action against the spread, receiving 53.8% of the bets and, more significantly, 57.4% of the money. This indicates that bettors are confident in Toronto’s ability to keep the game within the 8.5-point margin, a sentiment that aligns with our analysis.

Moneyline Intrigue: The moneyline market presents the most compelling story. A lopsided 84.3% of all bets are on the Celtics to win outright. However, the money tells a different tale. Boston is drawing just 59.1% of the total handle, while the Raptors are commanding a massive 40.9% of the money from only 15.7% of the bets. This significant disparity suggests that while the general public is backing the Celtics, larger, more confident wagers are being placed on the Raptors to pull off the upset.

Total Market Trend: For the game total, the public is leaning towards a high-scoring contest, with 66.2% of bets and 63.1% of the stake placed on the Over. However, a noteworthy trend has emerged: betting on the Under has seen a 7.0% increase over time, while action on the Over has decreased by the same amount. This late shift in the market suggests that money is moving towards a lower-scoring game as tip-off approaches, which supports our pick of Under 223.5.

Team Statistical Breakdown: Raptors vs Celtics

Who has the edge?

The Raptors are ranked 4th in defensive rating and force the sixth-most turnovers per game (15.9). That sounds like an advantage, but Boston takes care of the ball better than everybody in the NBA. The Celtics dominate the half-court battle, particularly from beyond the arc and on the glass. Boston attempts the second-most three-pointers in the NBA, a strategy that will fall heavily on the shoulders of Jaylen Brown. With Tatum’s rebounding prowess absent, Brown will be crucial in securing extra possessions and preventing the Raptors from initiating their devastating fast break—making his Over 6.5 Rebounds prop an especially compelling angle.

Injury Report Analysis

Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics Odds

Odds as of January 9, 2026 from consensus sportsbooks.

The betting market has firmly established the Boston Celtics as heavy home favorites, with a moneyline price of -331. This implies the oddsmakers give Boston a 73.6% vig-free probability of winning outright, compared to just 24.9% for the Raptors. A $10 bet on the Celtics moneyline would yield a profit of only $3.02, while the same wager on the underdog Raptors at +264 would return a handsome profit of $26.40 if they pull off the upset.