Raptors vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, and Expert Picks (March 20)

• The Nuggets are 6.5 to 7.5-point home favorites over the Raptors tonight at Ball Arena
• Denver leads the NBA in scoring, three-point shooting and true shooting percentage
• See my Raptors vs Nuggets prediction, odds and expert picks for March 20

Friday night features an interconference showdown between two playoff-caliber teams, as the Toronto Raptors (39-29, 20-13 away) head to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Nuggets (42-28, 19-13 home). Tip-off from Ball Arena is scheduled for 9:00 pm ET.

Denver enters as a sizable home favorite in the latest NBA odds, and for good reason. The Nuggets lead the entire NBA in scoring at 120.7 points per game and rank first in both three-point percentage and true shooting percentage. Toronto has been solid this year as the 5th seed in the East, but this is a tough road spot against the league’s most efficient offense.

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Raptors vs Nuggets Prediction

I’ve made my Raptors vs Nuggets prediction, and I’m siding with Denver to cover at home. Toronto has been one of the better road teams in the league at 20-13 away, and they’re coming in hot with three straight wins. They blew out Chicago 139-109 on Wednesday, with Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Brandon Ingram and Jakob Poeltl all scoring 17 or more.

The Raptors have also been money against the spread in this head-to-head. Toronto is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Denver and 6-2 ATS in the last eight overall. That’s a trend worth respecting, especially with a line that’s crept up to 7.5 at some books.

But I’m still going with Denver here. The Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a road winning percentage above .600, and 21-7 ATS following an ATS loss. They’re coming off a rough 125-118 loss to Memphis as 12.5-point favorites, but Jokic still put up 29/14/9 in that one. I expect a bounce-back.

Raptors vs Nuggets Key Stats

Denver’s offensive numbers are absurd. First in scoring, first in three-point percentage (39.14%), first in true shooting (61.21%) and second in field goal percentage. The Raptors are a respectable 8th in points allowed at 111.8, but Denver’s offense is a different animal. They also get to the free-throw line at will, ranking second in the NBA at 21.21 per game.

I expect the Nuggets to win and cover at home. Denver doesn’t lose back-to-back against inferior opponents very often, and Jokic tends to go off after subpar performances.

Raptors vs Nuggets Odds

The Raptors vs Nuggets odds have Denver as a 6.5 to 7.5-point home favorite depending on where you shop. The -270 moneyline implies roughly a 73% chance of a Nuggets win. The total is sitting in the 238 to 239.5 range, which feels about right for a game featuring the NBA’s top-scoring team against a Toronto defense that ranks 8th in points allowed.

The over has been a money printer in this head-to-head, cashing in 20 of the last 27 meetings and 15 of the last 21 in Denver. Both teams have also gone over in their last four or five Friday games. That said, the under has hit in five of Denver’s last six home games, so the total is a bit of a coin flip.

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Raptors vs Nuggets Expert Picks

• Nuggets -6.5 (-118 at BetMGM)

I mentioned it above, but the bounce-back angle is legit. Denver is 21-7 ATS after an ATS loss this season. The Nuggets were 12.5-point favorites against Memphis and got burned, which means Jokic and company should come out with some extra urgency tonight.

Jokic had 29 points, 14 rebounds and 9 assists in that Memphis loss. He was two boards short of yet another triple-double, and he’s a frontrunner in the NBA MVP odds for a reason. Christian Braun added 26 points, and Jamal Murray dished out 12 assists. This team can score with anybody.

Toronto’s biggest weakness in this matchup is its three-point shooting. The Raptors rank 25th at 34.61% from deep, which is a problem when you’re going up against a team that leads the league at 39.14%. Denver can bury you from outside in a hurry, and if Toronto falls behind early, they don’t have the shooting to claw back.

Both teams are relatively healthy. Toronto is only missing Chucky Hepburn (knee, out indefinitely) and has Collin Murray-Boyles (thumb) listed as questionable. Denver is without Peyton Watson (hamstring, out indefinitely), and that’s it. No excuses on either side.

I’ll grab Denver -6.5 at BetMGM as my official Raptors vs Nuggets expert pick. The Nuggets are too good offensively to drop back-to-back games as big favorites. Jokic won’t let it happen twice, and I think Denver covers in the process.