Rockets vs Pistons Picks & Props to Target on Jan 23

• The Detroit Pistons are favored to cover the -3.5 spread
• The Houston Rockets are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 road games in the second half of a back-to-back
• We analyze Rockets vs Pistons and offer expert betting advice

The Detroit Pistons, riding a four-game winning streak, host the Houston Rockets tonight. Tip-off is set for 7 pm, ET (Prime and SCHN).

The Rockets arrive in Detroit fresh from a 122-128 loss at Philadelphia on Jan. 22, a game where star Kevin Durant poured in 36 points. That was the second time in four games that Durant scored at least 36.

From a betting perspective, Friday night’s game presents an intriguing dynamic. The Pistons are a 3.5-point home favorite but must grapple with the potential absence of key playmaker Cade Cunningham, who is listed as questionable due to illness.

This preview will delve into the critical statistical trends, player props, and betting insights and recommend the best bets for Rockets vs. Pistons.

Rockets vs Pistons Best Bets

Our expert analysis points toward a distinct advantage for the Pistons on the spread, a low-scoring affair, and a key performance from a superstar, even in a losing effort.

Against the Spread: Detroit Pistons -3.5 (-110) at Bet365

The most compelling statistical evidence strongly favors the Pistons covering the spread in this contest. The Rockets are facing a grueling schedule, playing this game on the road in the second half of a back-to-back. Historically, this is a terrible spot for them. The Rockets have a dismal 1-6 record (.143) against the spread in their last 7 games played in the second half of a back-to-back. Their struggles are even more pronounced on the road in these situations, where they are a perfect 0-9 (.000) against the spread over their last 9 games.

Adding to Houston’s woes, the Pistons have consistently dominated this head-to-head matchup from a betting perspective, going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 encounters with the Rockets. While Cade Cunningham’s status remains questionable, the sheer weight of these situational trends, combined with Detroit’s head-to-head ATS success, makes the Pistons at -3.5 the confident play.

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Total Points: Under 217.5 (-110) at BetMGM

For the Over/Under, the data unequivocally leans toward a lower-scoring game. The total is set at 217.5 points. Our analysis of the Pistons’ recent home games, particularly when they are favored or coming off a win, paints a clear picture. The “over” has failed to hit in each of the Pistons past 6 home games when they were listed as a favorite. Similarly, the “over” has also failed to hit in each of the last 6 Pistons games at home following a victory, once again suggesting a 6-0 run for the “under.” With the Pistons currently holding the home-favorite status, these trends are highly relevant. Expect a grind-it-out game, keeping the total firmly below 217.5 points.

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Analyzing 3 Rockets vs Pistons Player Prop Market

Based on our comprehensive analysis of team trends, injury situations, and statistical matchups, here are the three strongest player prop bets for this matchup:

1. Kevin Durant Over 23.5 Total Points (-116): Durant remains the focal point of Houston’s offense with Fred VanVleet sidelined for the season. Coming off a dominant 36-point performance against Philadelphia, Durant’s scoring responsibility has increased significantly. Against a Pistons defense that may be without primary playmaker Cade Cunningham, Durant should find more favorable matchups and looks. His prop line of 23.5 appears conservative given his elevated usage rate and the Rockets’ reliance on his offensive production in a slow-paced, half-court game.

2. Jalen Duren Over 11.5 Total Rebounds (-110): With Steven Adams out indefinitely for Houston, Duren faces a significant advantage on the glass. The Pistons center has been averaging strong rebounding numbers at home, and the Rockets’ interior depth is compromised. Despite Houston leading the league in rebounding percentage, Adams’ absence creates an opportunity for Duren to exploit this matchup. The Pistons rank 4th in offensive rebounds per game, and Duren should benefit from extended minutes if Cade Cunningham’s illness limits Detroit’s perimeter options.

3. Tobias Harris Under 4.5 Assists (-125): If Cade Cunningham sits due to illness, the offensive burden shifts significantly, but Harris typically operates more as a scorer than a primary facilitator. With Caris LeVert also doubtful, the Pistons’ ball movement could become more isolation-heavy, reducing assist opportunities. Harris averages modest assist numbers at home (2.3 per game), and the Rockets’ defense ranks 11th in opponent assists allowed. This Under provides solid value in a game that may feature more individual scoring and less fluid ball movement.

Each of these props capitalizes on the specific injury situations, matchup advantages, and statistical trends identified in our comprehensive analysis, offering strong betting value in Thursday’s contest.

Best Player Prop: Kevin Durant Over 23.5 Total Points (-116) at FanDuel

Despite the Rockets’ struggles, Kevin Durant remains an elite offensive force capable of carrying his team’s scoring load. He’s coming off a strong 36-point performance against the 76ers. His consensus points line is currently set at 23.5. Considering his recent scoring (two 30+ point games in his past four), hitting 24 points or more against a Pistons defense that might be without Cade Cunningham (their primary playmaker and potentially a key defender on Durant) offers excellent value. Bet the Over on Kevin Durant’s total points.

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Rockets vs Pistons Key Betting Trends & Insights

Delve into the crucial betting trends shaping this matchup, highlighting significant statistical patterns that could influence the outcome.

• The Pistons are 4-0 (1.000) ATS in their last 4 games vs. Houston.
• The “over” has failed to hit in each of the last 6 Detroit Pistons games at home when they were favored.
• The “over” has also failed to hit in each of the last 6 Detroit Pistons games at home following a victory.
• The Rockets are 1-6 (.143) ATS in their last 7 games played in the second half of a back-to-back.
• The Rockets are 0-9 (.000) ATS in their last 9 road games played in the second half of a back-to-back.

Public Betting Insights & Expert Analysis

The NBA public betting market reveals interesting dynamics, with public sentiment diverging significantly from our expert predictions in several key areas. Understanding these betting splits – particularly the distinction between the number of bets (public sentiment) and the amount of money wagered (often indicative of sharper action) – can provide crucial context.

Moneyline Market: Public Favors the Home Team

In the Moneyline market, the public is heavily backing the home team Pistons. The Pistons are attracting 65.8% of all bets, with a nearly identical 64.1% of the total stake favoring them to win outright. This indicates a clear consensus among bettors that the Pistons will secure the victory, aligning the number of wagers with the overall money invested.

Spread Market

The Spread market reveals a significant disparity between public betting volume and where the substantial money is landing. While the Rockets are attracting a slight majority of individual bets at 50.2%, compared to the Pistons at 49.8%, the distribution of money tells a different story. A robust 63.6% of the total stake is placed on the Houston Rockets to cover the spread, despite them receiving only marginally more individual bets. Conversely, the Pistons, with 49.8% of bets, account for only 36.4% of the money. This divergence suggests that larger, potentially sharper, bets are leaning heavily toward the Rockets covering the spread, even as the public’s individual tickets are almost evenly split.

Our expert pick, however, confidently backs the Detroit Pistons -3.5 to cover, directly contrasting with where the majority of the money in the spread market is currently being placed. This creates a fascinating “sharp money vs. expert analysis” scenario.

Total Points Market: Overwhelming Public Lean Toward the Over

The Total Points market shows the most overwhelming public consensus. A massive 78.5% of all bets are placed on the OVER, with a corresponding 75.2% of the total stake also favoring a high-scoring affair. This indicates a strong public belief that the game will surpass the set total.

This public sentiment directly opposes our expert prediction, which advises betting the Under 217.5 total points. The stark contrast between the public’s heavy lean toward the Over and our analytically-driven Under pick highlights a potential “public vs. sharp” dynamic, where the broader betting population expects a shootout, while our analysis points to a more controlled, lower-scoring contest.

Rockets vs Pistons Key Stats

Rockets vs Pistons Injury Report & Impact

Ultimately, while both teams are dealing with significant injuries, Cade Cunningham’s status looms largest over this contest, with his potential absence profoundly influencing the Pistons’ offensive capabilities and bolstering the argument for a lower-scoring affair.

Rockets vs Pistons Odds

Odds as of January 23, 2026, 1:36 PM EST from consensus odds.

The Pistons enter this contest as 3.5-point favorites on their home court, with a moneyline of -168, indicating they are expected to win outright. The Rockets are the road underdogs at +141 on the moneyline, suggesting a less likely but more lucrative payout if they pull off the upset. The total points line is currently set at 217.5, with slightly more juice on the Under.

Analyzing the moneyline odds, the implied probability (vig-free) for the Pistons to win is approximately 60.17%, while the Rockets’ implied probability stands at 39.83%. For bettors looking at the moneyline, a $20 wager on the Pistons (-168) would yield a profit of $11.90, resulting in a total return of $31.90. Conversely, a $20 bet on the underdog Rockets (+141) would net a profit of $28.20, for a total return of $48.20 if they emerge victorious.

The betting lines have seen some movement since opening. The opening spread had the Pistons at -3, which has since shifted to -3.5. This half-point increase in Detroit’s favor suggests that despite the uncertainty surrounding Cade Cunningham’s availability, betting action has leaned toward the Pistons covering a slightly larger margin, potentially influenced by their strong home record and the Rockets’ poor performance on the second leg of back-to-backs. The total points line has also moved, opening at 218.5 and now settling at 217.5. This decrease of one point indicates that the market is anticipating a lower-scoring game, aligning with our expert prediction of the Under 217.5 and the potential impact of Cunningham’s absence on the Pistons’ offensive output.|