Rockets vs Thunder Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits

• The Thunder are home favorites against the Rockets on Saturday afternoon
• Kevin Durant looks for revenge after losing prior two matchups
• Our analysis breaks down Houston at Oklahoma City and provides expert betting advice

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After a losing effort in their first game since Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was sidelined, the Oklahoma City Thunder host the vulnerable Houston Rockets. Tip-off is set for 3:30 pm ET at Paycom Center on ABC.

The Rockets (31-19) are coming off consecutive double-digit losses to the Charlotte Hornets and Boston Celtics, and hope to get back in the win column against the reigning NBA champions. The Thunder won’t have Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams in this game, but Chet Holmgren will suit up after missing Wednesday’s matchup against the San Antonio Spurs. Oddsmakers have Oklahoma City as slight favorites 3.5-point favorites.

Below, I will analyze the betting value and provide expert advice for this rematch.

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks & Predictions

The last time these two teams faced off, Oklahoma City held Kevin Durant in check (19 PTS, 7-23 FG, 0-5 3PT) and defeated Houston by 20. With the Thunder missing their two stars, Durant will be on the attack early and often.

Best Player Prop: Kevin Durant Over 23.5 Points (-112 at DraftKings)

It took a few games, but Kevin Durant is getting adjusted to sharing the floor with Alperen Sengun again. He returned to his regular volume Thursday night against Charlotte, scoring 31 points on 11/21 shooting, and has eclipsed 24 points in six of his late eight games. Durant remains the focal point of Houston’s offense, averaging 26.0 points per game. With less defensive pressure on him, expect Durant to be aggressive against his former team.

Game Total Pick: Under 212.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

A defensive clash has the under written all over it. Both teams grind out every possession and slow down the pace, making this game more of a chess match rather than a track meet. Durant specializes in isolation, and the Thunder will be searching for offensive answers without the league MVP. Last month’s matchup totaled 202 points, with all the respective stars healthy.

Spread Prediction: Rockets +4.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Houston has played uninspiring basketball as of late, but they should keep up with the injury-riddled Thunder. If Sengun can limit Holmgren’s production, it’ll be up to Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, and Isaiah Joe to make up the difference. While Oklahoma City boasts a 22-4 record at home, the Rockets are 4-0 ATS as road underdogs this season.

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Key Stats

Analyzing the Mismatch

The Rockets have the advantage on the glass, especially with Alperen Sengun back in the lineup. Sengun averages 9.4 rebounds per game, while Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason all chip in over five rebounds a game themselves. Even if Sengun and Holmgren nullify each other in the paint, there will be plenty of rebound opportunities for Houston.

Public Betting Splits

The NBA public betting data for Saturday’s matchup reveals confidence in Oklahoma City defeating Houston at home.

Spread Trends

Oklahoma City is attracting 68% of the spread bets, with the public backing the Thunder to cover.

Moneyline Splits

The Thunder account for an astonishing 83% of moneyline tickets, with the market seeing little value in Houston potentially ending their losing streak.

Game-Total Splits

Bettors are anticipating an offensive showcase in this game, with the over capturing 91% of wagers. The double-OT season opener between these teams made a lasting impression.

HOU vs OKC Injury Report

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Odds

The betting markets reflect Oklahoma City having the slight edge given Houston’s recent struggles. Below are the current consensus odds for Saturday’s matchup.

Odds as of February 7, 2026, from DraftKings Sportsbook.