Spurs vs Knicks NBA Cup Final Picks, Predictions, Closing Odds & Betting Splits
By Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball
Published:
- With the Knicks missing key backcourt depth, the Spurs hold value as 2.5-point underdogs
- Big-money bettors are heavily backing a Spurs upset
- See my top Spurs vs Knicks picks, predictions, and player props to bet in the NBA Cup final, plus the closing odds and betting splits
A heavyweight clash is on deck in the finale of the NBA In-Season Tournament as the San Antonio Spurs (18-7, 13-10-2 ATS, 14-11 O/U) battle the New York Knicks (18-7, 17-8 ATS, 23-12 O/U) for the championship. The action tips off from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas at 8:30 pm ET, with national coverage provided by Amazon Prime Video.
The Spurs welcomed back Victor Wembanyama (25.8 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 3.8 APG, 3.5 BPG) from a 12-game absence during their 111-109 upset of OKC in the semifinals on Saturday. The team as a whole enters the title game with a clean bill of health. New York will be without guards Miles McBride (11.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.5 APG in 27.0 MPG) and Landry Shamet (9.3 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.2 APG in 20.9 MPG).
Below, find my Spurs vs Knicks picks and predictions, plus the closing odds and public-betting splits for the NBA Cup.
Spurs vs Knicks Picks & Prediction for NBA Cup Final
Moneyline pick: San Antonio Spurs (+122) at FanDuel Sportsbook
While the New York Knicks have the star power to beat any team on any given night, the San Antonio Spurs’ clean bill of health gives them a decisive edge that isn’t fully reflected in the odds.
Victor Wembanyama’s unprecedented defensive impact gives them the tools to disrupt New York’s primary weapons, Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns.
The Spurs have the depth and top-end talent to keep this game within a single possession or win it outright, making the moneyline the most-valuable play.
Best Bet: Spurs +2.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Game-Total Prediciton: Over 233.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Top Player Prop: Towns Over 2.5 Assists (-155) at BetMGM
The player prop market has revealed a significant pricing discrepancy that bettors should pounce on. While BetMGM is offering Karl-Anthony Towns’ assist total over 2.5 at -155, other major sportsbooks see have it much shorter: FanDuel (-174), DraftKings (-165), and the consensus line (-172) all have the over much more heavily favored.
With the Spurs likely to send extra defensive attention his way via Wembanyama, Towns will be forced into more passing situations, making him a strong candidate to rack up at least three assists as he finds open shooters and cutters.
KAT over 2.5 assists is the best value on the board.
Spurs vs Knicks Player Props
Player props represents consensus lines/odds as of 3:40 pm ET. Download the top Missouri sports betting apps if you live in MO.
Knicks vs Spurs Closing Odds for NBA Cup Final
Currently, the best San Antonio moneyline is +122 at FanDuel, while the best New York moneyline is -135 at DraftKings.
The Spurs vs Knicks point spread ranges from Knicks -2.5 (-110) at FanDuel to -3.0 (-112) at Caesars Sportsbook.
The game totla has shot up from the opening line of 229.0 to 233.5 or higher. The best under price is now 234.5 (-110) at BetMGM; the best over price is 233.5 (-114) at FanDuel.
Odds commentary as of 4:46 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each betting market if the NBA odds shift sufficiently ahead of gametime.
Public Betting Analysis: Following the Sharp Money
Analyzing the NBA public betting splits, specifically the difference between the percentage of total bets and the percentage of total money, shows a possible divergence between public and professional bettors, particularly in the moneyline.
While casual bettors are leaning towards the favored Knicks, the larger (often sharper) wagers are flowing in on the Spurs. The Knicks are drawing the majority of the tickets (58%), but the San Antonio Spurs are attracting the lion’s share of the actual money wagered (57%).
The spread and total markets show a much greater degree of consensus.
- Spread: The Spurs are getting 59% of the spread bets, and an even more substantial 65% of the money.
- Total: Bettors are overwhelmingly anticipating a high-scoring affair. A staggering 81% of all bets and 78% of the total money have come in on the over.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
