Spurs vs Warriors Picks & Predictions for Feb 11 – Can Warriors Slow Down Wembanyama?

• Surging San Antonio is a 7-point road favorite vs Golden State
• Warriors All-Star Stephen Curry is out
• Our analysis reveals the best picks for Spurs at Warriors on Feb. 11

The San Antonio Spurs will go for their sixth consecutive victory tonight when they visit Golden State.

The Spurs are a heavy road favorite against a Warriors squad that again will be without All-Star Stephen Curry. Tip-off is set for 10 pm, ET (ESPN).

Our analysis breaks down the key betting angles, analyzing whether the Spurs can cover the number on the road or if the gritty Warriors can slow down Victor Wembanyama and defend their home floor for an upset.

Spurs vs Warriors Prediction & Best Bets

The betting markets have reacted sharply to the recent trends and player availability. San Antonio is a clear road favorite, with the line moving from an opener of -6.5 to -7. Given the Spurs’ explosive form and the Warriors’ struggles to cover at home, the value lies with the visitors.

Spread Prediction: San Antonio Spurs -7.5 (-115) at BetMGM

The trends paint a bleak picture for a Golden State squad trying to navigate a depleted roster. The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in four consecutive home games (0-4 ATS), signaling that the market has consistently overestimated their ability to defend home court without their full arsenal. Furthermore, Golden State is 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win, suggesting a pattern of regression immediately after positive results.

Conversely, San Antonio is capitalizing on momentum. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS against opponents with a winning record over their last four contests, proving they step up against competitive competition. With Victor Wembanyama dominating the paint and the offense clicking, laying the points with the road favorite is the sharp play here.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET UP TO
$1,500 BACK

IN BONUS BETS!

BET NOW

Total Prediction: Over 220.5 (-110) at Bet365

Smart money has flooded the Over market, driving the total up from an opening number of 216.5 to a consensus 221.5. The trends overwhelmingly support this movement. The Over has cashed in each of the last four games where San Antonio was a favorite, indicating that when the Spurs are expected to win, they tend to do so in high-scoring affairs.

On the other side, despite their roster issues, the Warriors have found themselves in shootouts at the Chase Center. The Over has hit in five straight Golden State home games following a win. With the Spurs coming off a 136-point eruption and the Warriors lacking the defensive personnel to slow down Wembanyama, expect this game to clear the total.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net Up to $1,000!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME365

CODE: DIME365

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $150

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

Best Player Prop: Victor Wembanyama Over 22.5 Points (-111) at DraftKings

Coming off a massive 40-point performance against the Lakers, Wembanyama’s line of 22.5 feels surprisingly conservative. The Warriors’ current interior defense is ill-equipped to handle his length and versatility. Wembanyama will expose a Golden State team that struggles to contain elite scoring threats, and should eclipse this number comfortably.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Spurs vs Warriors Betting Trends

• Spurs Step Up Against Winners: San Antonio is 4-0 ATS against opponents with a winning record over their last four games.
• Home Court Struggles: Golden State has failed to cover the spread in four consecutive home games (0-4 ATS).
• Momentum Regression: The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four contests immediately following a win.
• Favorites Trending High: The Over has hit in each of the last four games where the Spurs were listed as the favorite.
• Chase Center Shootouts: The Over is 5-0 in the last five Golden State home games following a win.

Public Betting Splits: Spurs vs. Warriors

The NBA public betting data for this Wednesday night clash at the Chase Center reveals distinct patterns in how the public and larger bettors are approaching the matchup. While the moneyline and total markets show overwhelming consensus, the spread market indicates a divide between ticket volume and actual money wagered.

Moneyline Market

The public has largely abandoned the depleted Warriors, heavily buying into the San Antonio momentum. The Spurs are currently commanding 81.7% of the total betting tickets. While the handle is slightly lower than the ticket volume, San Antonio still accounts for a dominant 75.1% of the money wagered. This indicates that both recreational bettors and larger investors are aligned in expecting a straight-up road victory for Victor Wembanyama and company.

Spread Market

The spread market presents the most interesting dynamic of the night. On the surface, the public is completely torn, with the ticket count split dead even at 50.0% for both Golden State and San Antonio. However, a look at the handle reveals where the conviction lies. Despite the even ticket split, the Spurs have attracted 55.7% of the total money wagered, compared to 44.3% for the Warriors.

This discrepancy suggests that while casual bettors are hesitant to lay the points against Golden State at home, the bettors with larger wagers are backing the Spurs to cover the spread. This aligns with our expert prediction of San Antonio -7, as the money flow indicates slightly more confidence in the road favorite’s ability to win by a margin.

Total Market

If there is one thing the betting public agrees on, it is that points will be scored in bunches. The Over has received staggering support, drawing 96.3% of the betting slips. Even more telling is the money percentage, with the Over capturing 97.6% of the total handle.

Such lopsided action on the Over is rare and indicates the market has zero faith in the Warriors’ ability to generate stops or keep this a low-scoring affair. This massive consensus firmly supports our prediction of Over 221.5, suggesting the oddsmakers may still be chasing the market regarding the scoring potential of this matchup.

Spurs vs Warriors Stats Comparison

Player Impact & Prop Implications

• Victor Wembanyama (SAS): The stats highlight a massive opportunity for Wembanyama in the paint. With Golden State’s rebounding struggles and lack of rim protection, his Over 11.5 Rebounds (+107) and Over 22.5 Points (-111) props are supported by the team-level rebounding and interior defense discrepancies.
• Brandin Podziemski (GSW): With Curry sidelined, Podziemski becomes the primary facilitator. Averaging 12.7 points and 3.8 assists at the Chase Center, he will be tasked with orchestrating an offense that must find ways to score against the NBA’s 4th-ranked defense. His points + assists combo prop is a key area for bettors to watch as his usage rate spikes.

Spurs vs Warriors Injury Report & Impact

Spurs vs Warriors Odds

Odds as of February 11, 2026, from consensus data.

The oddsmakers clearly view the Spurs as the superior team in this spot, listing them at -251 on the moneyline. This price implies a high level of confidence in a San Antonio victory, while the Warriors are positioned as +205 underdogs, offering a significant return for bettors willing to back the home team to pull off an upset.

Implied Probabilities & Payouts

Removing the vigorish (the sportsbook’s fee) from the current moneyline odds gives us the normalized win probabilities for the game. The market suggests the San Antonio Spurs possess a 68.56% probability of winning, compared to a 31.44% chance for the Golden State Warriors.

For bettors looking at the moneyline value, a $20 wager on each side yields vastly different returns:

• A $20 bet on the Spurs (-251) would return a profit of $7.97, for a total payout of $27.97.
• A $20 bet on the Warriors (+205) would return a profit of $41.00, for a total payout of $61.00.

Line Movement Analysis

There has been notable movement in the betting lines since they opened, particularly regarding the total.

• Spread Movement: The line opened with San Antonio as a -6.5 favorite but has since ticked up to -7. This half-point movement suggests steady money flowing toward the Spurs, likely reacting to the confirmation of Golden State’s extensive injury report and the public’s confidence in San Antonio’s ability to win by a margin.
• Total Movement: The most drastic shift has occurred in the Over/Under market. The total opened at 216.5 but has surged upward by five full points to 221.5. This massive adjustment aligns with the heavy public betting volume on the Over (96.3% of tickets), as bettors anticipate a high-scoring affair driven by San Antonio’s potent offense and Victor Wembanyama’s recent scoring outbursts against a depleted Warriors defense.