Thunder vs Nuggets Odds, Player Props, Predictions & Picks (Game 4)

• The Thunder look to even the series against the Nuggets in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon
• Oklahoma City is coming off a tough overtime loss in Game 3 but showed resilience all season
• Check out the Game 4 Thunder vs Nuggets odds, predictions, and player prop picks for May 11

The Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14, 32-8 away, 53-25-4 ATS) aim to tie up their second-round playoff series against the Denver Nuggets (50-32, 26-15 home, 38-44 ATS) in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon.

Tipoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET at Ball Arena in Denver, with the Thunder as sizable road favorites despite the Nuggets taking a 2-1 series lead after an overtime victory on Friday night.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Odds

The Thunder enter Sunday as 6.5-point road favorites at BetMGM, implying a 74% win probability. On the moneyline, Oklahoma City is a hefty -275 favorite with Denver coming back at +220. The game total is set at 227.5 points, with even -110 juice on both sides.

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Looking at the series price, Oklahoma City is still a notable -240 favorite to advance despite trailing 2-1. The Thunder opened the series as much heavier -700 favorites, however.

In the latest NBA championship odds, the Thunder have the best odds at +180 despite trailing in the series. Denver checks in with the fifth-best title odds out of the remaining teams at +1000.

Thunder vs Nuggets Player Props (Game 4)

NBA player props from BetMGM on May 11.

Thunder vs Nuggets Player Prop Picks

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists (-130) at DraftKings
• Nikola Jokic 2+ Made 3-Pointers (-154) at FanDuel

I love Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to go over 13.5 combined rebounds and assists in Game 4. The do-it-all star is averaging over 16 rebounds plus assists per game in this series and leads all players in Round 2 with 20.7 potential dimes per contest. He’s cleared this line in two of the three games against Denver.

I’m also backing Nikola Jokic 2+ made three-pointers at -154 odds. The two-time MVP launched 10 shots from beyond the arc in Game 3, as the Nuggets tried to climb out of a hole late.

He went 0-for-10, but I expect positive regression after Jokic canned multiple triples in Games 1 and 2. He’s hoisting over three long-range attempts per game in the playoffs.

Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction & Picks for Game 4

• Thunder -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM
• Over 227.5 (-110) at BetMGM

I’m backing the Thunder to cover the 6.5-point spread and tie the series up at two games apiece. OKC has not lost consecutive games since mid-March and responds extremely well to playoff adversity. They entered the postseason with an NBA-record +12.9 point differential, are 37-20-3 ATS when favored by 6+ points, and blew out Denver by 43 in Game 2.

The Thunder have also found a formula for limiting Jokic’s impact, holding him under 20 points in two of the three games. They’ve won the rebounding battle the last two contests and their depth advantage showed in Game 3 when Denver only used three bench players.

I expect MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to have a massive bounce-back performance as well after a rare off-night in Game 3 where he still stuffed the stat sheet.

OKC’s ability to force turnovers and push the pace in transition gives them a huge edge in this matchup as well. They forced 34 points off turnovers in their dominant Game 2 win and are simply the more disruptive defensive team, ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets also expended a ton of energy to squeak out the OT win, and their lack of depth could be problematic in Game 4.

With an uptick in pace and scoring likely as OKC dictates tempo, I’m also taking the Over 227.5 points. The Thunder should feast in transition off Denver turnovers and shoot much better than the 38.5% mark from Game 3. Both offenses rank top-5 in efficiency this season as well. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon.