Thunder vs Nuggets Player Props, Picks & Injury Updates: Betting Value on SGA & Jokić

• Denver’s Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray are both “probable” against OKC on Sunday night
• The Thunder are still missing Jalen Williams (16.8 PPG, 5.6 APG)
• See the Thunder vs Nuggets player props, picks, and injury updates for Feb. 1

The injury-riddled Denver Nuggets (38-11, 17-6 home, 29-20 ATS) host the reigning NBA-champion Oklahoma City Thunder (38-11, 17-6 away, 22-27 ATS) on Sunday night at Ball Arena at 7:30 pm MT/9:30 pm ET. The final leg of the NBA’s massive ten-game Sunday slate, Thunder vs Nuggets will air nationally on NBA and Peacock.

Bolstered by the burgeoning two-way impact of Chet Holmgren (17.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.6 APG, 2.0 BPG), the Thunder are sizable 7.5-point road favorites in Sunday’s NBA odds. Nikola Jokić (29.7 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 10.8 APG) and Jamal Murray (25.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 7.4 APG) are officially “probable” for Denver, while Aaron Gordon (17.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.5 APG), Cameron Johnson (11.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.4 APG), and Christian Braun (9.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.5 APG) remain out.

I have dissected the Thunder vs Nuggets player props to find the best betting value on the board. The first section sets out the OKC/DEN prop lines and odds; the second contains my two favorite Thunder vs Nuggets player props to bet; the third and final section contains the latest injury updates.

Jump to: PROPS & ODDS || PICKS || INJURY UPDATES

Thunder vs Nuggets Player Props & Odds

This contest features a premier heavyweight bout between two perennial favorites in the NBA MVP odds, as the relentless scoring of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 6.2 APG) clashes with the masterful playmaking of Nikola Jokić, who returned from a month-long absence on Friday, putting up 31 points, 12 rebounds, and five dimes in just 25 minutes during a 122-109 win over the Clippers.

The market activity surrounding Jokić highlights some disparity between books regarding his playmaking expectations. While the consensus line for his assists sits at 8.5 with heavy juice to the over (-131), DraftKings opened it at a lower at 7.5 before the market corrected. BetMGM maintains the line at 8.5 with standard -125 juice to the over. Jokić’s scoring line has remained steady at a consensus of 25.5, though DraftKings opened slightly lower at 24.5, suggesting some initial hesitation that bettors quickly pounced on.

On the Thunder side, Gilgeous-Alexander commands the highest total on the board at 32.5 points. The consensus odds (O -110/U -120) indicate a tightly contested market for the OKC superstar. Meanwhile, Holmgren is being valued as a significant presence on the glass; his rebound line stands at 8.5 with the consensus favoring the over at -126 odds.

Notably, Nuggets forward Peyton Watson has a surprisingly high scoring line of 18.5 points, implying an expanded role in the offense for this matchup. Books are juicing the under on his rebounds (4.5) at -155, suggesting they view him primarily as a scoring threat rather than a board-crasher in this specific game script.

OKC Thunder vs DEN Nuggets Picks & Best Bets

Navigating the betting board for this Western Conference heavyweight bout requires isolating the specific statistical mismatches created by the current roster limitations. With key defensive pieces missing on both sides and usage rates consolidating around the superstars, the value lies in backing the engines of these respective offenses.

Based on the statistical profile of both teams and the latest injury news, here are the two strongest plays for Sunday’s matchup.

OKC vs DEN Pick #1: Jokić Over 11.5 Rebounds (-104 at FanDuel)

Jokić’s rebound total is 12.5 O/U at most sportsbooks but a full rebound lower at FanDuel and with only -104 juice on the over.

The absence of Aaron Gordon (hamstring) fundamentally changes the geometry of Denver’s rebounding scheme. Without Gordon’s athleticism in the dunker spot and on the glass, Nikola Jokić is forced to shoulder an even heavier burden on the boards. The stats suggest he is more than capable of handling it, particularly at Ball Arena.

Jokić has been a different beast at home this season, averaging 12.8 rebounds per game across 16 contests in Denver compared to his season-long average of 12.2. He faces an Oklahoma City team that, despite its defensive brilliance, has a glaring weakness on the interior. The Thunder allow 12.7 offensive rebounds per game on the road, the highest mark among all teams in the dataset. Their strategy of playing smaller, turnover-focused lineups leaves them vulnerable to size, and Jokić is uniquely equipped to punish their lack of interior bulk on second-chance opportunities.

OKC vs DEN Prop Pick #2: SGA Over 30.5 Points (-119 at BetMGM)

This is another line where the market shows massive disagreement. SGA’s point total is as high as 32.5 but as low as 30.5 at BetMGM, with only -119 juice on the over.

With Jalen Williams (thigh) ruled out, the Thunder lose their third-leading scorer and a vital secondary playmaker. This injury creates a massive usage vacuum that SGA is primed to fill. In his last five games (with Williams sidelined), Gilgeous-Alexander has already ramped up his production, carrying a massive 33.6% usage rate and averaging 34.0 points per game on elite 62.2% shooting.

The matchup against Denver’s defense specifically plays into SGA’s greatest strength: getting to the line. The Nuggets struggle to defend without fouling at home, allowing opponents to attempt 25.3 free throws per game.

Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the league’s premier foul-drawers, averaging 9.6 free-throw attempts over his last five. With Denver lacking Christian Braun (doubtful) to navigate screens and apply ball pressure, SGA should have a clear runway to attack the paint and accumulate points at the charity stripe.

Nuggets vs Thunder Injury Reports & Updates

The availability of key personnel is heavily influencing Sunday’s odds and betting action. Both teams are navigating significant health hurdles, with the Nuggets missing key frontcourt depth and the Thunder shorthanded on the wing.

Denver Nuggets Injury Status

The biggest news for Denver concerns their starting unit and key rotation pieces. While their superstars are expected to suit up, the supporting cast is thin.

• Nikola Jokić (Knee): Listed as Probable. His presence is critical for the assist and rebound props previously analyzed.
• Jamal Murray (Hip): Listed as Probable. Like Jokić, he is expected to play, keeping the offensive engine intact.
• Aaron Gordon (Hamstring): Listed as Out. Gordon will be re-evaluated in 4-to-6 weeks, leaving a massive hole in Denver’s interior defense and dunker spot.
• Christian Braun (Ankle): Listed as Doubtful. If Braun sits, Denver loses their primary point-of-attack defender against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
• Cameron Johnson (Knee): Listed as Out.
• Tamar Bates (Foot): Listed as Out.

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Status

The Thunder are dealing with the absence of their second-leading scorer and a premier perimeter defender, placing an even heavier burden on their MVP candidate.

• Jalen Williams (Thigh): Listed as Out. Williams will be re-evaluated in two weeks, removing a critical secondary playmaker from the floor.
• Alex Caruso (Adductor): Listed as Out. His absence significantly weakens OKC’s ability to pressure Denver’s guards.
• Ajay Mitchell (Hip): Listed as Out.
• Nikola Topić (Groin): Listed as Out.
• Thomas Sorber (Knee): Listed as Out for Season.

Betting Market Implications

The injury report directly correlates with the value found in the player prop market. With Aaron Gordon out and Christian Braun doubtful, the high line for Peyton Watson (18.5 points) makes significantly more sense; the Nuggets will need him to absorb heavy minutes and usage.

On the Thunder side, the absence of Jalen Williams creates a usage vacuum that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will likely fill, reinforcing the logic behind his lofty 32.5-point total. Furthermore, without Alex Caruso’s defensive screen navigation, Jamal Murray may find cleaner looks on the perimeter, boosting the appeal of his scoring props.

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