Timberwolves vs Nuggets Predictions, Picks & Props to Bet

• The Nuggets are 3.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves on Christmas Day
• Denver is expected to be missing three starters for this matchup
• See my Timberwolves vs Nuggets predictions, picks and props to bet for Christmas Day NBA

Two of the top teams in the West square off in the Christmas Day nightcap, as the Timberwolves (20-10, 8-5, away) visit the Nuggets (21-8, 9-5 home). Online sportsbooks originally opened Denver as 4.5-point favorites in the NBA odds, but that line has been moving towards Minnesota ever since.

A big reason why is the Nuggets injury concerns, and those key absences plus the T-Wolves current form have me betting Minny against the spread in my Timberwolves vs Nuggets predictions.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 pm PT/10:30 pm ET from Ball Arena, in Denver, CO, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage. Below you’ll find all of my Timberwolves vs Nuggets predictions and picks, as well as my favorite props to bet.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Predictions & Picks

• Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

The best number we can bet on Minnesota right now is +3.5, which still profiles as a value to me. Denver is expected to be missing starters Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson and Christian Braun, while the only T-Wolves starter on the injury report is Jaden McDaniels. He’s currently listed as questionable, but if even if he sits I’m not backing off my Minnesota love.

The Timberwolves have won three straight, including victories over the Thunder and Knicks, who boast the shortest NBA Championship odds in the West and East respectively. After a disappoint start, Minny has rallied with 10 wins in their last 12 games, with superstar Anthony Edwards leading the charge.

Edwards enters play averaging a team-high 28.7 points per game, and is a legit threat in the NBA MVP odds. The T-Wolves offense has plenty of depth behind him, with five additional players averaging 11.5+ points per game. Defensively, Minnesota ranks fifth on the season, and with Rudy Gobert at the five, they at least have the size to bother Nikola Jokic.

MIN Timberwolves Team Stats – Last 12 Games

Speaking of Jokic, his Nuggets operate the most efficient offense in the NBA, although they do take a significant hit without Gordon, Johnson and Braun. It’s the Denver defense that’s concerning, as this is a team that’s dropped two of its past three, and has surrendered 130+ points to the lowly Mavs twice already this month.

The Nuggets started out the season with their hair on fire, especially at home, but since then they’ve cooled off significantly. Denver is 3-5 in its last eight home games overall, covering in just three of those outings.

Minnesota meanwhile, is 4-2 ATS in its last six games, and has plenty of experience knocking off the might Nuggets. Minnesota was 4-0 straight up last season versus the Nuggets, winning both times in Denver as underdogs. The Nuggets did get the better of the T-Wolves twice earlier this season in Minnesota, but they were at full strength and the T-Wolves were in an early funk.

I’m following the line move and will have the majority of my action on Minnesota +3.5, but will also sprinkle some T-Wolves moneyline at +140 odds.

MIN Timberwolves vs DEN Nuggets Player Props to Bet

• Nikola Jokic Over 10.5 Assists (-114 at FanDuel)

Moving over to the NBA player props market, where I’m betting over 10.5 assists for Jokic. His usage rate jumps to 30.3 with the trio of Gordon, Braun and Johnson off the floor, but what’s interesting is that his points per possession dip. That’s largely because defenses have fewer scorers to worry about, and can crash down on the former MVP even harder.

That will entice him to get rid of the ball to one of his open teammates, a skill that he does better than anyone else. Jokic sees passing lanes that no one else does, which is why he’s the league leader in assists. He averages 11 per game, with 13 or more dimes in three of his last four starts.