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Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors NBA Finals Game 3 Odds & Betting Preview

Andre Iguodala
Andre Iguodala put the Raptors away with a huge three-pointer in Game 2. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License].

The NBA Finals head back to California for the fifth time in five years as the Golden State Warriors welcome the Toronto Raptors to Oracle Arena on Wednesday, June 5th at 9:00 p.m. EST. The Warriors opened as 6.0-point favorites with the game total set at 213.

NBA Finals Game 3 Odds

Team 2019 NBA Finals Spread at Bovada Win Total
Toronto Raptors +6.0 (-105) +210 O 213.0 (-115)
Golden State Warriors -6.0 (-115) -250 U 213.0 (-105)

*Odds taken 06/03/19

Warriors Showed Remarkable Perseverance in Game 2

The Warriors had every reason to throw in the towel during Game 2. Kevin Durant was unavailable, Steph Curry was sick, and DeMarcus Cousins was playing just his second game since April 15th. It had the makings of a massacre, and for much of the first half it was, with the Raptors enjoying a 12 point lead mid-way through the second quarter.

The Warriors slowly, but surely, chipped away at the lead and went on a remarkable 18-0 run in the third quarter that changed the entire complexion of the game. Nearly every shot launched by Golden State found the bottom of the basket as Klay Thompson, Steph Curry, and Andre Iguodala went thermonuclear. It was classic Golden State basketball, and it completely unnerved the Raptors, who missed eight straight shots and turned the ball over five times in just six minutes.

Golden State Got Its Boogie Back

Many observers were shocked that Steve Kerr opted to start DeMarcus Cousins on Sunday night following his uninspiring performance in Game 1. However, the big man didn’t disappoint, finishing with 11 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, and a pair of blocks in 28 very sweaty minutes. His physicality kept the Raptors off balance and ensured the Warriors wouldn’t be bullied for a second straight game.

Kerr was quick to praise Cousins afterwards. “He was fantastic, and we needed everything he gave out there — his rebounding, his toughness, his physical presence, getting the ball in the paint and just playing big, like he does,” he said. “We needed all of that. So I thought he was fantastic.”

Don’t Expect Durant for Game 3

The Warriors have provided very little clarity on Kevin Durant’s injury status, but anyone who saw him hobbling around Golden State’s locker room following Game 2 knows that he’s nowhere near game ready. The 10-time All-Star will not be cleared to return until he participates in an individual workout and at least one full-contact practice. Game 4 is still feasible, but Durant has a number of hurdles to clear first.

Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors Regular Season Statistical Comparison

OFFENSE

Warriors
VS
Raptors

114.9 (1st) Offensive Rating 112.5 (5th)
117.7 (2nd) Points 114.4 (8th)
29.4 (1st) Assists 25.4 (13th)
49.1 (1st) Field-Goal Percentage 47.4 (5th)
38.5 (3rd) Three-Point Percentage 36.6 (6th)
+6.5 (2nd) Plus/Minus +6.1 (3rd)

DEFENSE

Warriors
VS
Raptors

108.5 (11th) Defensive Rating 106.8 (5th)
111.2 (16th) Points 108.4 (9th)
44.4 (3rd) Field-Goal Percentage 44.9 (5th)
34.7 (11th) Three-Point Percentage 34.5 (8th)
47.1 (7th) Points In The Paint 47.5 (9th)

Raptors Won Everything But the Game on Sunday Night

The Raptors may have squandered a golden opportunity on Sunday night, but they still have reason to feel good about themselves heading into Game 3. Toronto out-rebounded Golden State 58-51 and outscored the Dubs in the paint 44-36. They also had five more fastbreak points while committing fewer turnovers.  Those are all positive signs and, under usual circumstances, should produce a victory.

Toronto out-rebounded Golden State 58-51 and outscored the Dubs in the paint 44-36 in Game 2.

The key to Game 3 will be limiting the Warriors runs and defending the perimeter. Toronto allowed Golden State to shoot close to 40% from beyond the arc in Games 1 and 2 after limiting teams to 34.5% shooting during the regular season. Their ability to close out on shooters will determine whether they can escape Oakland with a win.

Golden State and Toronto Betting Trends

Golden State Trends Toronto Trends
Golden State is 29-38-2 ATS after a win this season Toronto is 14-16-0 ATS after a loss this season
Golden State is 8-9-1 ATS in the 2019 NBA Playoffs Toronto is 11-9-0 ATS in the 2019 NBA Playoffs
Golden State has gone OVER the projected point total 61.1% of the time in the 2019 NBA Playoffs Toronto has gone UNDER the projected point total 65% of the time in the 2019 NBA Playoffs
Golden State is 18-8 SU after 2-3 days off this season Toronto is 16-6 SU after 2-3 days off this season
Golden State is 25-14-1 ATS when Steph Curry plays, but Kevin Durant does not Toronto is 11-8-0 ATS this season as an underdog on the road

Just how important is Game 3? Teams that win Game 3 in a best-of-seven series that is tied 1-1 go onto win the series over 73% of the time.

The Walking Wounded

Durant isn’t the only wounded Warrior. Klay Thompson tweaked his left hamstring during a three-point attempt early in the fourth quarter of Game 2, and Andre Iguodala is still nursing a strained calf he suffered during the Western Conference Finals. Iggy is expected to play through the discomfort while Thompson will be a game-time decision.

Golden State will also be without Kevon Looney, who fractured the first costal cartilage on his rib cage early in Game 2. The fourth year forward started 24 games during the regular season and had emerged as one of Kerr’s most dependable reserves during the playoffs. His boundless energy and defensive versatility will be greatly missed.

Take the Raptors to Cover the Spread

For the first time in five years the Warriors actually look vulnerable. Durant and Looney are out, Thompson and Iguodala are banged up, and Cousins is still working his way back into shape. Golden State is more than capable of winning at home on Wednesday night, but don’t expect a blowout with so many question marks heading into the game.

Pick: Raptors +6.0 (-105)

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