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Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors NBA Finals Game 4 Odds & Betting Preview

Steph Curry
The Warriors will need another heroic effort from Steph Curry in Game 4. Photo By Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License].

Here’s a sentence we didn’t think we would write when the season began: the Toronto Raptors are just two victories away from winning the 2019 NBA Championship. As improbable as it may seem, Canada’s lone NBA franchise can move one step closer to its first title on Friday, June 7th when it takes on the Golden State Warriors in Game 4 of the NBA Finals at Oracle Arena. Tip off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET.

The Warriors opened as 5.5 favorites with the game total set at 216. Learn more about this eagerly anticipated matchup by reading our full preview and betting guide below.

NBA Finals Game 4 Odds

Team 2019 NBA Finals Spread at Bovada Win Total
Toronto Raptors +5.5 (-105) +185 O 216.0 (-115)
Golden State Warriors -5.5 (-115) -225 U 216.0 (-105)

*Odds taken 06/06/19

Toronto Overwhelmed Golden State in Game 3

The Raptors took care of business in Game 3, coolly dispatching the Warriors 123-109 in Oakland. Kawhi Leonard paced Toronto with 30 points in 38 minutes and all five starters scored in double figures as the Dinos out-shot the Warriors from the floor and from beyond the arc.

Toronto’s balanced effort was in stark contrast to the Warriors, who leaned heavily on Steph Curry to generate the bulk of their offense. The two-time MVP had 47 points in 43 minutes, but received little help from his teammates, many of whom had been thrust into unfamiliar roles due to the absence of Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Kevon Looney.

The Raptors seemed to take special delight in attacking DeMarcus Cousins, who was playing in just his third game in nearly 50 days. Boogie finished with just four points on 1-of-7 shooting and was frequently targeted in the post and on pick-and-rolls. Expect Toronto to take advantage of his lack of lateral quickness again in Game 4.

Raptors Were Dialed in from Deep

The Raptors torched the Warriors from deep, hitting a staggering 44.7% of their three-point attempts in Game 3. In fact, their 17 three-pointers tied the NBA record for the most treys by any team on the road in Finals history. Of all the threes Toronto made, surely none was more impressive than this prayer by Fred VanVleet which seemed to scrape the ceiling before splashing in:

Klay Will Play, Durant Will Not

No one was more miserable during Game 3 than Klay Thompson, who looked like an eight-year-old who had just had his bike stolen. The five-time All-Star was unable to play after tweaking his left hamstring in the previous game, but has vowed he’ll return on Friday night. Golden State will benefit greatly from his shot making, of course, but his defense is equally vital. Danny Green and Kyle Lowry had far too many open looks in Game 3 without Thompson hounding them on the perimeter.

Kevin Durant’s status is not quite so cheery as he’s been ruled out for Game 4. The two-time Finals MVP was expected to scrimmage with teammates on Thursday but was deemed unfit to participate by Golden State’s trainers.

Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors Regular Season Statistical Comparison

OFFENSE

Warriors
VS
Raptors

114.9 (1st) Offensive Rating 112.5 (5th)
117.7 (2nd) Points 114.4 (8th)
29.4 (1st) Assists 25.4 (13th)
49.1 (1st) Field-Goal Percentage 47.4 (5th)
38.5 (3rd) Three-Point Percentage 36.6 (6th)
+6.5 (2nd) Plus/Minus +6.1 (3rd)

DEFENSE

Warriors
VS
Raptors

108.5 (11th) Defensive Rating 106.8 (5th)
111.2 (16th) Points 108.4 (9th)
44.4 (3rd) Field-Goal Percentage 44.9 (5th)
34.7 (11th) Three-Point Percentage 34.5 (8th)
47.1 (7th) Points In The Paint 47.5 (9th)

Serge I-Blocka

Serge Ibaka hosted a one-man block party in Game 3, swatting six of the Warriors’ shots.

Did he get away with a goaltend or two? Sure, but his presence in the paint continually altered shots and made the Warriors think twice about driving to the hoop.

Golden State and Toronto Betting Trends

Golden State Trends Toronto Trends
Golden State is 14-16 ATS after a loss this season Toronto is 34-36-1 ATS after a win this season
Golden State is 8-10-1 ATS in the 2019 NBA Playoffs Toronto is 12-9-0 ATS in the 2019 NBA Playoffs
Golden State has gone OVER the projected point total 63.2% of the time in the 2019 NBA Playoffs Toronto has gone UNDER the projected point total 61.9% of the time in the 2019 NBA Playoffs
Golden State is 6-3 SU at Oracle Arena this postseason Toronto is 4-4 SU on the road this postseason
Golden State is 25-15-1 ATS when Steph Curry plays, but Kevin Durant does not Toronto is 12-8-0 ATS this season as an underdog on the road

There’s still a lot of basketball left to be played, but it’s worth noting that teams that lead a best-of-seven series 2 games to 1 go on to win the series nearly 80% of the time.

Take the Warriors to Win and Cover the Spread in Game 4

The Raptors took advantage of an undermanned and overwhelmed team on Wednesday night, but they won’t have that luxury in Game 4 with the return of  Thompson. The defending champs will benefit greatly from being able to run their familiar sets and from having an established rotation where the team’s role players can play to their respective strengths.

It won’t be a blowout – the Raptors are far too good to allow that to happen – but it will be a comfortable win from a team looking to cement its legacy as one of the NBA’s greatest dynasties.

Pick: Golden State Warriors -5.5 (-115)

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