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Updated Three-Point Contest Odds After Lillard Drops Out: Heat’s Duncan Robinson Favored at +300

Damian Lillard on the court with Portland
Damian Lillard has dropped out of the 3-point contest after suffering a groin injury against the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Photo from @nbastats Twitter.
  • Duncan Robinson is the +300 favorite to win the 3-point contest on Saturday, Feb. 15th
  • Damian Lillard dropped out; is his replacement, Devin Booker, good value at +500 odds?
  • Read on for a look at the updated 3-point contest odds after Lillard’s departure and Booker’s entry

The NBA 3-point contest took a blow on Wednesday, with Damian Lillard suffering a groin injury that caused him to drop out of this weekend’s festivities. The Suns’ Devin Booker will replace Lillard, but who is the best bet now for the 3-Point Shootout this Saturday (Feb. 15)?

3-Point Contest Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Duncan Robinson (MIA) +300
Davis Bertans (WAS) +350
Joe Harris (BKN) +450
Trae Young (ATL) +450
Devin Booker (PHX) +500
Buddy Hield (SAC) +750
Devonte Graham (CHA) +1000
Zach LaVine (CHI) +1000

Odds taken Feb 13.

How Have the Odds Moved?

The current odds look a lot different than they did when they opened. Atlanta’s Trae Young was the opening favorite at +275, with Lillard behind him at +333. The two current favorites, Duncan Robinson and Davis Bertans, opened all the way back at +800.

Robinson and Bertans have the highest three-point percentage in the field. Both are above 40% for the season, with Robinson at 43.8% and Bertans at 42.4%. Only one other player in the field is shooting above 40% from three: Brooklyn’s Joe Harris at a 40.8% clip.

Is Chalk the Way to Go?

Robinson and Bertans may have the highest three-point percentages of the field, but that is also with a smaller sample size. In terms of three-point attempts per game, neither player is in the top ten of the league.

Of the 3-point contest field, Young (9.38 attempts per game), Hield (9.94), and Graham (9.41) do find themselves in the top ten. The odds have moved with percentages, but that isn’t the only measure of a player’s skill. Hield, Graham, and Young all have bigger roles as three-point shooters on their teams, and thus, are at times forced into tougher shots.

On the surface, Robinson and Bertans look like the best bets, but there is value to be found elsewhere on the board.

What About Booker?

As a late addition, Booker is an intriguing bet, but he may not be the way to go here. He shoots just 35.8% from three, the lowest percentage of the field, and that is on just 5.4 attempts per game.

Booker is a high-scoring, exciting guard to watch, and he’s a very good three-point shooter, but it’s not the focus of his game. He’s an exciting add to Saturday night, but he’s not the elite three-point marksman that some of the others in the field are.

What Is the Best Bet?

Two players in the middle of the pack provide the perfect intersection of value and skill. At +450, both the Hawks’ Trae Young and the Nets’ Joe Harris are the way to in this year’s 3-point contest.

Harris’ ability to shoot the three in recent years has been amazing. 2019-20 has been his worst three-point shooting season in the last three years, and he’s still at 40.8%. His marks of 42% and 47% in the last two years was special, and a season ago he was the winner of this contest.

Young, meanwhile, has had unlimited range since his days at Oklahoma, and he’ll likely take advantages of some of the 3-point contest’s new rules. This year, there will be two extra green balls six feet behind the line, and those shots will count for three points. For Young, especially, this is a chance to separate himself from the rest of the field.

A proven winner and a guy who has lived well behind the three-point line during his career are the two best bets on Saturday night.

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