Updated NBA Finals MVP Odds Ahead of Game 4

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the NBA Finals MVP despite OKC trailing 2-1 to Indiana
• SGA leads all players in points per game, but is coming off his worst performance of the series
• Keep reading for the updated NBA Finals MVP odds below, plus find out why Pascal Siakam is the best value

The two most heavily bet series outcomes for the NBA Finals were Thunder in 4, and Thunder in 5. After Game 3, neither of those are a possibility. The Pacers have shocked the basketball world by taking a 2-1 series lead, yet oddsmakers are still expecting OKC to triumph. As a result, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the favorite to win Finals MVP, however his odds have dramatically changed.

NBA Finals MVP Odds

Prior to the series shifting to Indy, SGA was -475 to win MVP in the NBA odds. That price now sits at -220, while Tyrese Haliburton’s odds have seen significant movement as well. Haliburton is +270 to win the award, after sitting at +600 just 24 hours ago. In case you’re wondering, only once has a Finals MVP come from the losing team, and it hasn’t happened since Jerry West in 1969.

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Why You Should Fade the Favorites

Given that it’s essentially impossible to win Finals MVP on the losing team, betting Gilgeous-Alexander makes zero sense. Why? Because the Thunder’s NBA Championship odds are exactly the same price. OKC is still the favorite to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy, but their odds have gone from -650 prior to Game 3, to -220 today.

If the Thunder do win the title, SGA will almost surely win MVP. However, OKC can still emerge victorious without Gilegous-Alexander earning any additional hardware. The Thunder star could get hurt and miss time, or he could simply continue to underwhelm like he did in Game 3, while one of his teammates steps up.

SGA scored only 24 points last time out, his lowest total of the series. He shot just 46% from the field, and committed 6 turnovers, his most of the postseason so far.

That doesn’t mean you should run to the window to bet Haliburton. There’s little doubt that the Pacers guard is the heartbeat of the team, but he has not been the best Indiana player thus far. Yes, his near triple-double in Game 3 was impressive, but he was a ghost in Game 2. Entering the 4th quarter, Haliburton had just 5 points, while Indiana was down 20. He proceeded to put up 12 points in garbage time to mask an otherwise terrible effort (by his standards). He was indecisive with his shot selection and couldn’t wait to get the ball out of his hands.

As for Game 1, yes he hit the winning shot, but his 14 points and 6 assists stat line isn’t exactly MVP worthy. Outside of Game 3, he’s struggled to produce consistent offense against OKC’s stable of elite defenders, and hasn’t the shown the Moxie or level of dominance that he did in the previous three series.

NBA Finals MVP Best Bet

• Pascal Siakam (+1100 at DraftKings)

The same cannot be said about Pascal Siakam. Spicy P has been Indiana’s most reliable scorer and rebounder in the Finals, leading the team with 18.3 points and 7.7 boards per outing. He’s shouldering the brunt of the scoring load along with Haliburton, but has been more much more efficient. The 31-year-old has bullied smaller defenders, and has held his own against the Thunder’s talented bigs.

Indiana Pacers NBA Finals Scoring Leaders

Siakam flashed a sky-high ceiling in the East Finals by averaging 25 points per night, punctuated by a 31 point effort to eliminate the Knicks. He can certainly replicate that moving forward, especially when the Pacers crank up the tempo. Siakam is the team’s primary threat on the break, and a few more easy buckets a night could vault him into the MVP conversation. At +1100, he’s the best NBA Finals value bet on the board, and that price is going get a lot shorter if the Pacers hold serve at home in Game 4.