Warriors vs Mavericks Game 5 Odds, Spread and Picks

• The Warriors vs Mavericks Game 5 odds favor Golden State by 7-points on Thursday, May 26 at 9pm ET
• Golden State is 8-0 at home this postseason, with an average margin of victory of 15.1 points
• Read below for the Warriors vs Mavericks odds, analysis, and betting prediction

If at first you don’t succeed, dust yourself off and try again. That will be the Golden State Warriors’ mantra on Thursday, as they get a second crack at eliminating the Dallas Mavericks and punching their ticket to the NBA Finals.

The Warriors lead the best-of-7 series 3-1, and oddsmakers are extremely bullish on their prospects of closing out the series at home in Game 5.

Mavericks vs Warriors Game 5 Odds

Odds as of May 25th from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Golden State opened up as a 7-point favorite, in a contest that features a total of 215.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 9pm ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, CA, with TNT providing the broadcast coverage.

As for the series market, the Warriors are -3500 favorites to advance to the NBA Finals. They own the shortest price tag in the NBA Championship odds at -140, as they look to capture the title for the fourth time in the last eight years.

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Warriors vs Mavericks Betting Analysis

No NBA team has ever erased a 3-0 series deficit, and only three times in 146 opportunities has a team ever forced a Game 7 after dropping the first three games of a series.

The Mavericks took the first step in their pursuit of history in Game 4, knocking off the Warriors 119-109 in Dallas. Luka Doncic led the way with 30 points, 14 rebounds and 9 assists, racking up his 10th double-double in 14 playoff games.

On Tuesday, Luka Doncic led both teams outright in points, rebounds and assists for the 3rd time in his career when facing elimination.

From @EliasSports, the only player in NBA history with more such games is LeBron James (5). pic.twitter.com/YNbB2HD6wr

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 25, 2022

Dorian Finney-Smith added 23 points on 9-of-13 shooting and Reggie Bullock chipped in 18. Dallas shot 50% from the floor and 46.5% from three, winning the rebounding and assist battle along the way.

The Mavs’ victory snapped Golden State’s nine-game conference finals winning streak, but the contest was not without drama. The game had to be paused for 16 minutes due to a rain delay, while Dallas nearly blew a 29-point fourth quarter lead.

The Warriors cut that massive lead to single digits with just over three minutes left but couldn’t get any closer. Steph Curry led the way with 20 points, reaching that number for the 100th time in a postseason game during his incredible career.

Steph split the defense ✔️

📺 @NBAonTNT pic.twitter.com/Nw6tmvyuxN

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) May 25, 2022

It was an off night for Curry’s running mates as Klay Thompson managed just 12 points while Jordan Poole added 14. Thompson’s tally tied his lowest point total of this postseason and he’s now just 7-of-24 from beyond the arc this series.

Golden State was missing Otto Porter Jr. due to a foot injury he suffered in Game 3. He’s currently listed as questionable for Game 5, after averaging 10.5 points in Games 1 and 2 on 82% shooting.

Warriors vs Mavericks Pick

Game 4 wasn’t the first time during these playoffs the Warriors have taken their foot off the gas. They did the same thing against both Denver and Memphis on the road, and each time they returned home to post series-clinching victories.

Golden State is 8-0 at home during the postseason, and posted 25 and 9-point victories over Dallas in Games 1 and 2. They have an average margin of victory of 15.1 points at the Chase Center during this year’s playoffs, and their advanced numbers are off the charts.

Back to the bay, one win away.#DubNation, we’ll see you there. pic.twitter.com/YvMpPDGaGS

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) May 25, 2022

The Warriors have a 119.8 offensive rating, a 104.9 defensive rating and 15.0 net rating at home. On the road, those numbers dip to 110.2, 116.8, and -6.6.

Let’s not overthink this one. Back the better team, in their own arena, where they’ve been nothing short of dominant all postseason long.

Pick: Golden State Warriors -7 (-110)