Philadelphia 76ers vs Golden State Warriors Odds, Picks, and Prediction: Star Injuries Create Betting Value

• The 76ers holding are a dismal 1-8 at in their last nine games against top-10 scoring defenses
• The confirmed absence of Stephen Curry and the doubtful status of Joel Embiid severely limits the offensive ceiling for both teams
• Check out my Warriors vs 76ers picks, predictions, player props, plus the latest odds, line movement, and betting splits

The Golden State Warriors (11-11, 4-8 away, 10-12 ATS, 14-8 O/U) travel to face the Philadelphia 76ers (11-9, 6-6 home, 12-8 ATS, 11-9 O/U) on Thursday night in a cross-conference showdown. The Warriors limp into Philadelphia as significant road underdogs, looking to bounce back from a 110-96 loss against the Miami Heat. Their challenge is compounded by the confirmed absence of superstar Stephen Curry, who remains out with a quadriceps injury, placing a heavy burden on the rest of the squad.

Conversely, the 76ers are riding a wave of momentum, coming off a dominant 121-102 home victory over Washington. This article will dissect the key matchups, analyze the statistical edges, and deliver sharp betting insights for this prime-time game. The action is set to tip off from the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia on December 4, 2025, at 7:00 PM EST, with the game broadcast nationally on NBA TV.

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Warriors vs 76ers Picks & Predictions

GSW vs PHI ATS Pick: Golden State Warriors +3.0 (-109) at BetRivers

This matchup presents a classic case of a star’s absence warping the betting market, creating potential value for savvy bettors. While the default reaction is to fade the Warriors without Stephen Curry, a deeper dive into the trends suggests Golden State is more than capable of keeping this contest tight. The 76ers, despite their recent success, have a glaring weakness that aligns perfectly with a Warriors strength. A highly compelling trend shows the Sixers are just 1-8 at home against top-ten scoring defenses over their last nine games.

With Golden State fielding such a unit, this historical struggle for the Sixers at home cannot be overlooked, even with Joel Embiid potentially on the floor.

While the Warriors have their own negative trend to contend with – going 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as an underdog – the specificity of Philadelphia’s struggles against elite defenses holds more weight. With the Warriors’ defense poised to stifle the 76ers’ attack, grabbing the points with the underdog is the sharpest play.

GSW vs PHI Game-Total Pick: Under 224.5 (-122) at BetRivers

The betting total of 224.5 is particularly intriguing due to conflicting trends. The over has hit in 10 of the Philadelphia 76ers’ last 13 games as a favorite. However, this clashes directly with their aforementioned scoring woes against top-tier defenses and the fact that the Warriors’ offense will be significantly handicapped without its primary engine.

This game script points towards a defensive-minded, half-court battle where points are at a premium. The under 224.5, two full points lower than some books have on offer, is solid value in a game likely to be a grinder.

Best Player Prop Bet: Maxey Under 6.5 Assists (+117) at Underdog

With the Warriors bringing their stingy defense to town, the player to fade is the 76ers’ primary perimeter creator, Tyrese Maxey. The Warriors’ defensive scheme is excellent at containing lead guards and forcing them into tough shots rather than easy assists.

Given Philadelphia’s documented issues generating offense against teams of this caliber, Maxey is likely to have a tougher time setting up his teammates than usual.

Warriors vs 76ers Player Props (Dec 4th)

Joel Embiid (19.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.1 APG) has a game-high point total of 28.5 O/U despite his questionable injury status. He’s followed closely by teammate Tyrese Maxey (32.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 7.5 APG) at 27.5 O/U.

With Curry out, Jimmy Butler (19.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 5.0 APG) has the highest total on the Golden State side at 18.5 O/U.

Golden State Warriors vs Philadelphia 76ers Odds

The best moneyline price on Golden State is currently +136 at DraftKings, while the best moneyline price on the Sixers is -146 at FanDuel. The Warriors/76ers point spread ranges from PHI -3.0 to -3.5. Golden State ATS bettors can get +3.5 (-115) at DraftKings, while Philadelphia ATS bettors can get -3 (-105) at Caesars.

The game toal ranges from 223 to 223.5 with bet365 offering the best over number and FanDuel offering the best under number.

Odds comments as of 2:55 pm ET. The odds in the table will update automatically with the best price for each market if the NBA odds move before gametime.

The moneyline has seen significant movement in the Warriors’ favor, with Philadelphia opening as a -162 favorite before settling at the current price. This shift likely reflects the market’s reaction to the news of Joel Embiid’s status being downgraded to “Doubtful,” which significantly levels the playing field.

Warriors vs 76ers Public-Betting Trends

The betting public has taken a strong stance on this matchup, particularly in the totals market, while the spread reveals a more nuanced split between casual bettors and larger wagers.

• Total: There is overwhelming public consensus that this game will be a high-scoring affair. A staggering 91% of all public bets have come in on the Over. The money aligns perfectly with the ticket count, as 90% of the handle is also backing a high point total. This heavy action on the Over, which has seen a 9.1% increase in bet share over time, puts the public in direct opposition to our pick of Under 222.5, creating a classic fade-the-public opportunity.
• Spread: The spread market is far more divided. While the public ticket count is nearly split down the middle – with 52% of bets on the Philadelphia 76ers and 48% on the Golden State Warriors – the money tells a different story. The ATS handle is the inverse, with 51% on GSW and 49% on PHI.
• Moneyline: Confidence in a straight-up Philadelphia victory is strong. The 76ers are drawing 61% of the moneyline tickets, but more importantly, they are attracting a commanding 77% of the money. This significant gap between bet percentage and money percentage reinforces the idea that larger bets are being placed on the favored 76ers to win the game outright, leaving just 24% of the handle on the Warriors.

Warriors vs. 76ers Statistical Deep Dive

The most glaring mismatch – and the one that heavily informs my ATS pick – is the Warriors’ defense against the 76ers’ offense. Golden State boasts a top-10 scoring defense, allowing just 114.0 points per game (9th). This defensive prowess travels well and directly challenges a Philadelphia team that has historically struggled against elite defensive units at home. The 76ers’ offense, while ranking 9th in raw scoring, is a more modest 19th in offensive efficiency, indicating they may be susceptible to a team that can slow the game down and force tough shots.

This sets up a difficult night for Philadelphia’s primary offensive engine, Tyrese Maxey. Facing a disciplined perimeter defense that ranks 8th in opponent three-point percentage, his ability to create for others will be tested, making the Under on his assist prop an appealing play.

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