Warriors vs Mavericks Picks, Predictions & Best Bets (Jan 22)

• The Golden State Warriors are a 5.5-point road favorite
• Dallas is without Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis
• We analyze the spread and other bets and deliver expert advice on Warriors vs Mavericks

Old meets new tonight when Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks host Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors. Tip-off is set for 7:30 pm at American Airlines Arena, ET, with live coverage available on Amazon Prime Video and NBCS-BA.

Flagg scored 27 against the Warriors the first time they met this season, a 126-116 Golden State win on Christmas Day.

Golden State is firmly in the playoff mix, but Dallas currently is on the outside looking in.

Could the tide be turning a bit? Dallas has won three games in a row, most recently a 138-120 blowout over Utah. The Mavs will be without star guards Kyrie Irving (knee), along with key big man Anthony Davis (hand). Meanwhile, the Warriors, who narrowly fell 102-103 to the LA Clippers in their previous game, enter this contest as potential road favorites. While missing Jimmy Butler III (season-ending knee injury) and Seth Curry (back), they will lean heavily on elite scorer Stephen Curry to exploit Dallas’s depleted roster. This article will delve into the seasonal statistics, team strengths, and crucial player matchups, offering comprehensive insights for this anticipated clash.

Warriors vs Mavericks Predictions & Best Bets

Dallas Mavericks +5.5 (-112) at DraftKings

The Warriors are 5.5-point road favorites, reflecting their stronger healthy roster and Curry’s leadership. However, historical trends suggest that laying points with the Warriors on the road as favorites has been problematic. Golden State is a concerning 1-5 (.167) against the spread on the road as a favorite over their last 6 games. This sub-40% success rate represents a significant red flag for Warriors backers, particularly when facing a desperate home team.

The Mavericks, despite their extensive injury list including Irving and key frontcourt pieces, have shown remarkable resilience at home when cast as underdogs. Dallas boasts an impressive 5-1 (.833) against the spread at home as an underdog over their last 6 games. This 83% success rate in similar situations, combined with the Warriors’ road favorite struggles, points directly to Dallas as the value pick. While the Mavericks are 2-6 ATS (.250) after a win, the strength of their underdog ATS record at home outweighs this concerning trend.

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Over 234.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The total for this game sits at 234.5, and all indicators point toward a high-scoring affair. Both teams have been trending toward the ‘Over’ in recent contests. The ‘Over’ has connected in 3 of the Mavericks’ last 4 games at home (75%), while the Warriors show even stronger trends with the ‘Over’ hitting in 3 of their last 4 road games (75%) and 4 of their last 5 games overall (80%). With Dallas missing significant defensive personnel in their frontcourt, and Golden State’s explosive offensive capabilities with Curry, expect points to flow freely.

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Key Betting Trends: Warriors vs Mavericks

Analyzing recent performance against the spread and over/under totals provides valuable context for this Western Conference matchup:

• Mavericks ATS as Home Underdog: The Mavericks are 5-1 (.833) ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog.
• Warriors ATS as Road Favorite: Conversely, the Warriors are 1-5 (.167) ATS on the road as a favorite over their last 6 contests.
• Mavericks Over/Under at Home: The ‘Over’ has frequently connected in Mavericks’ home games, hitting in 3 of their last 4 outings (75%).
• Warriors Over/Under on Road: The ‘Over’ has been profitable for Warriors road games, connecting in 3 of their last 4 away contests (75%).
• Warriors Overall Over/Under: Across all venues, the ‘Over’ has prevailed in 4 of the Warriors’ last 5 games (80%).
• Mavericks ATS After a Win: Coming off a victory, the Mavericks have struggled ATS, standing at 2-6 (.250) over their last 8 games following wins.

Public Betting Breakdown: Sharp Money vs the Masses

Understanding broader NBA betting public tendencies reveals valuable context for this Warriors-Mavericks clash, particularly where sharp action might be moving against general consensus.

Moneyline Market Analysis

Public sentiment heavily favors the Warriors on the moneyline, with 66.0% of all bets placed on Golden State. More significantly, the Warriors are attracting 72.8% of the total money wagered, indicating larger bet sizes from confident bettors. The Mavericks are drawing 34.0% of bets but only 27.2% of the stake, suggesting smaller wagers from casual bettors.

Total Points Betting Pattern

The over/under market shows overwhelming consensus for a high-scoring affair. The “Over” is receiving 77.3% of all bets and an even more pronounced 81.1% of total money wagered. This strong public alignment with our Over 234.5 pick suggests the betting community largely expects a fast-paced game with abundant scoring opportunities, particularly given Dallas’s defensive personnel shortages.

Spread Market Dynamics

In the point spread market, the Warriors maintain public favor but less decisively. Golden State (-5.5) is attracting 52.4% of bets and 55.9% of total money, while the Mavericks (+5.5) are receiving 47.6% of bets and 44.1% of the stake. Our pick for Dallas +5.5 goes against this slight public lean, creating potential contrarian value when combined with the compelling historical ATS trends favoring the home underdog in this specific scenario.

Warriors vs Mavericks Team Stats

Strategic Matchup Analysis:

The Warriors present a more balanced and efficient overall attack, evidenced by their superior offensive rating (113.6 vs 108.3) and higher points per game output, thanks in large part to Curry.

However, the Mavericks possess a crucial counter-strength that could neutralize Golden State’s primary weapon. Dallas leads the entire league in opponent three-point percentage, allowing just 32.9% from beyond the arc. This elite perimeter defense directly challenges a Warriors offense that thrives on the three-ball.

Dallas held Curry to 23 points on 6-of-18 shooting in the Christmas Day game.

Warriors vs Mavericks Injury Report

Strategic Impact Analysis:

The Mavericks’ injury crisis is far more catastrophic for this specific matchup. Irving’s absence removes a premier scoring threat and secondary playmaker, while the season-ending losses of Lively II and Exum, combined with Davis being sidelined, leave Dallas extremely thin in crucial areas. If Gafford’s ankle injury limits his availability, the Mavericks could be forced into undersized lineups that would struggle against Golden State’s more complete roster.

This injury context strongly supports our betting recommendations. The depleted frontcourt aligns with our Over pick, as Dallas will likely struggle with interior defense and rebounding. If Gafford plays, his expanded role makes our Over 7.5 rebounds prop particularly appealing, as he’ll be essential for Dallas’s interior presence against a Warriors team that doesn’t dominate the glass.

For the Warriors, while Butler’s season-ending injury and Seth Curry’s absence remove valuable pieces, these losses are less immediately devastating. Stephen Curry remains healthy to lead a relatively more intact rotation, giving Golden State a significant personnel advantage that the betting market may still be undervaluing despite the line movement.

Warriors vs Mavericks Betting Odds Analysis

Odds as of January 22, 2026, 1:50 PM UTC from consensus odds.

The Warriors enter as clear road favorites, with their -214 moneyline and 5.5-point spread reflecting oddsmakers’ confidence in their ability to exploit Dallas’s depleted roster. The total points line at 234.5 suggests expectation of a fast-paced, high-scoring affair from both sides, likely influenced by the Mavericks’ defensive personnel shortages.

When normalizing these moneyline odds to remove bookmaker vigorish, the Warriors carry an implied win probability of approximately 65.4%, while the Mavericks’ chances sit around 34.6%. For betting reference, a $10 wager on the Warriors (-214) would return a profit of $4.67 (total return $14.67), whereas a $10 bet on the Mavericks (+177) would yield a profit of $17.70 (total return $27.70). Scaling up to $20, a Warriors victory would profit $9.35 (total $29.35), while a Mavericks upset would net $35.40 (total $55.40).

Line Movement Analysis: Significant movement has occurred since opening lines, directly reflecting the injury news. The initial spread favored Golden State by just 3.5 points, but this has shifted dramatically to Warriors -5.5, indicating increased confidence in their ability to win convincingly. The Warriors’ moneyline has strengthened from -166 to -214, while the Mavericks have lengthened from +140 to +177. The total has also climbed from an opening 231.5 to 234.5.

These movements almost certainly resulted from Dallas’s extensive injury report, particularly the confirmed absences of Irving, Davis, and Lively II, which swayed both public and professional money toward Golden State while anticipating higher scoring due to the Mavericks’ compromised defense. This line movement, however, may have created value on the Dallas side, as our analysis suggests the market has potentially overcorrected based on personnel concerns.