Warriors vs Rockets Game 7 Predictions, Player Prop Picks & Best Odds
By Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball
Published:
- Golden State and Houston meet in Game 7 of their first-round series on Sunday night in Texas
- The Rockets have posted back-to-back lopsided wins to force a decisive Game 7 tonight
- Below, see my Warriors vs Rockets prediction and picks, plus the best available GSW vs HOU odds for Game 7
The Golden State Warriors (51-37, 25-18 away) have one more chance to close out the Houston Rockets (55-33, 31-13 home) on Sunday night when they travel to the Toyota Center for a 7:40 pm CT/8:40 pm ET tip-off.
Houston opened as a two-point favorite and has been bet up to 2.5 at most sportsbooks, as the Rockets try to become just the 14th team in NBA history to climb out of a 3-1 hole.
Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Prediction & Picks
- Warriors moneyline (+115) at bet365
- Jimmy Butler over 24.5 points (-104) at FanDuel
- Alperen Sengun over 21.5 points (-108) at FanDuel
My Warriors/Rockets picks for Game 7 are threefold. To start, I’m backing the experience of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green over Houston’s youth in what will be the biggest game ever for many on the Rocket roster. The Warriors opened as +110 underdogs and that’s been bet up as high as +115 at bet365, giving Golden State just a 46.51% implied win probability.
I get the thinking. Houston is at home and has looked like the way better team over the last eight quarters. Houston’s Game 5 win was far more lopsided than the 131-116 final score suggests; Golden State trailed by 27 entering the fourth quarter. And the Rockets led almost wire-to-wire on the road in Game 6 (a 115-107 season-saving victory).
But the Warriors are filled with championship experience, plus the postseason pedigree of Jimmy Butler (18.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.4 APG postseason). Butler has played three outstanding games in the series and two pretty horrid ones (and missed Game 3 due to injury). Last time out, he had 27 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists, though shot just 7-of-17 from the floor (1-of-6 from three). Butler has played in two recent Game 7s, both with the Heat against the mighty Celtics. In the 2022 playoffs, he dropped 35 points and nine boards while playing the full 48 minutes in a narrow 100-96 loss. The next year, he had 28 points, seven boards, and six assists in a lopsided 103-84 road win.
These are the games Butler lives for, and he won’t hesitate to call his own number early and often as the Warriors look to avoid falling in another early hole.
Even though I’m fading the Rockets as a whole, I’m backing Alperen Sengun (20.8 PPG, 11.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 2.0 SPG) to go over 21.5 points. The 22-year-old center has been the focal point of the Houston offense all postseason; his field-goal attempts have gone up from 15.0 per game in the regular season to 18.0 in six playoff games, despite Houston playing at a much slower pace (93.92 vs 99.03). No one is questioning Draymond’s ability as a defender, but he’s also conceding five inches to Sengun and Houston coach Ime Udoka is going to exploit that or die trying.
GSW vs HOU Player Props for Game 7
NBA player props as of 2:45 pm ET at bet365.
The Warriors/Rockets player props have shifted pretty considerably for a few players compared to Game 6. Butler’s point total has soared from 21.5 points to 24.5 after his 27-point performances on Friday, plus his past Game 7 exploits that I touched on above. Steph Curry’s has gone up from 25.5 to 26.5; Curry is averaging 24.3 PPG in the postseason but has scored at least 29 points in three of six games against Houston.
On the Houston side, Fred VanVleet’s total has increased from 15.5 to 16.5. A former NBA champion with Toronto, VanVleet has been electric from three over the last three games, connecting at a 66.7% clip on his last 27 shots from beyond the arc. The Wichita State product has scored at least 25 points in each of the last three games and is averaging 26.7 PPG in that span.
Warriors vs Rockets Odds – Best Available Game 7 Betting Lines
The Warriors vs Rockets spread is currently 2.5 across the board after opening at 2.0. The best odds on Golden State to cover are at ESPN Bet (-107) while the best price on Houston to cover is at bet365 (-105).
On the moneyline, counterintuitively, bet365 has the longest odds on a Golden State SU victory (+115). The longest Houston moneyline is -130 at Caesars.
There is a half-point range in the game total (205.5 to 206.0). The best option for over bettors is O 205.5 (-107) at ESPN Bet while the best option for under bettors is 206.0 (-110) at either FanDuel or bet365 in Sunday’s NBA odds.
Both teams are currently longshots in the NBA championship odds. Golden State is +4000, slightly ahead of Houston at +5500 even though the Rockets are favored to advance.
BETMGM SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD1500 & GET $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS
BET365 SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365
FANATICS SPORTSBOOKBET & GET UP TO $1,000 IN BONUS BETS!
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!
FANDUEL SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $250 IF YOUR BET WINS
CAESARS SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD2DYW & BET $1 TO DOUBLE THE WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 10 BETS!
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, MD, MI, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, WY); (800) 327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org (MA); (877) 8-HOPENY (NY); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); (888) 789-7777 (CT); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN); mdgamblinghelp.org (MD); morethanagame.nc.gov (NC); 1800gambler.net (WV)
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
