Warriors vs Suns Picks, Predictions & Injuries (Feb 5) – Are Curry, Booker Playing Tonight?

• Stephen Curry and Devin Booker are out
• The Suns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games
• We analyze Warriors vs Suns and offer expert betting advice

All-Star guards Stephen Curry and Devin Booker are out, so who is going to step up tonight when the Golden State Warriors visit the Phoenix Suns? Tip-off is scheduled for 10 pm, ET (Amazon Prime Video and NBCS-BA).

The Warriors (27-24) have lost two in a row and arrive in a state of transition following a major trade deadline shakeup involving Kristaps Porziņģis. Meanwhile, the Suns (31-20) look to stay hot after beating Portland on Tuesday.

The betting narrative for this game is heavily influenced by the absence of star power on both sides. With Curry ruled out for Golden State and Booker sidelined for Phoenix, the lines reflect a battle of systems rather than superstars. The Warriors will look to veterans like Draymond Green to anchor the road squad, while the Suns hope for a big performance from Dillon Brooks and potentially Jalen Green — listed as day-to-day — to defend their home floor. In a game void of its primary closers, the value lies in identifying which supporting cast can execute effectively in the halfcourt.

The Suns are a consensus 6.5-point home favorite.

We analyze Warriors vs. Suns and offer expert betting advice.

Warriors vs Suns Prediction & Best Bets

With both lineups missing their primary offensive engines in Curry and Booker, this matchup becomes a test of defensive continuity and role-player execution. The betting market has installed Phoenix as a substantial home favorite, and the statistical trends suggest the oddsmakers have identified the correct disparity between these two teams.

The most compelling angle is the divergent trajectory of these teams regarding venue performance. The Suns have turned their home floor into a reliable cover spot for bettors, while Golden State has struggled to replicate its success away from the Bay Area. Without Curry to bail out broken possessions, the Warriors’ road inefficiencies are likely to be magnified against a Suns unit that prides itself on suffocating defense under head coach Jordan Ott.

Best Bet: Phoenix Suns -6.5 (-110) at Bet365

The numbers heavily favor backing the home squad to cover the number. Phoenix has been one of the most reliable home bets in the league recently, while Golden State’s road form has deteriorated. The Suns’ ability to stifle visiting opponents, combined with the Warriors’ inability to generate consistent offense as an underdog without their MVP, creates a significant edge for Phoenix.

Key Situational Trends:

• Home-Court Advantage: The Phoenix Suns are 8-3 (.727) against the spread at home over their last 11 games.
• Road Woes: The Golden State Warriors are 3-7 (.300) against the spread on the road over their last 10 games.
• Defensive Mettle: The Suns are 6-2 (.750) ATS against top 10 scoring defenses over their last 8 games, proving they can grind out wins in low-scoring, physical battles.
• Underdog Struggles: Golden State is just 2-5 (.286) straight up as an underdog over their last 7 games.

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The Total: Under 215.5 (-115) at BetMGM

While the Warriors have trended toward the over against strong defenses recently, the specific venue trends for Phoenix point toward a lower-scoring affair. With the total sitting at 215.5, the absence of elite shot creation on both sides supports the “Under” narrative. Phoenix controls the pace at home, and their recent history suggests they will look to win this game on the defensive end rather than getting into a shootout.

Supporting Trend:

• The Under has hit in 6 of the Phoenix Suns’ last 8 games at home (75%).

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Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Trends

• Road Liabilities: The Warriors are 3-7 (.300) ATS on the road over their last 10 games.
• Valley Dominance: Phoenix is 8-3 (.727) ATS record at the Mortgage Matchup Center in their last 11 contests.
• Grinding It Out: The Suns have thrived against elite defensive units, going 6-2 (.750) ATS against top 10 scoring defenses over their last 8 games.
• Underdog Issues: Golden State has failed to find ways to win when not favored, holding a 2-5 (.286) straight-up record as an underdog in their last 7 opportunities.
• Home Unders: The Under has cashed in 75% of the Suns’ recent home games, with the Over hitting in just 2 of their last 8 contests at the Mortgage Matchup Center.

Public Betting Trends

The NBA betting public is showing strong conviction in both the side and the total. While the absence of Stephen Curry and Devin Booker might usually create hesitation, bettors are aggressively backing the home favorites and anticipating an offensive explosion despite the missing star power.

Spread Betting

The sentiment surrounding the spread aligns perfectly with our prediction to back the home team. The Phoenix Suns are receiving overwhelming support from both the general public and larger bettors. Currently, 69.6% of the spread tickets are on Phoenix to cover the number.

More importantly, the liability is even more concentrated, with 72.2% of the total money wagered backing the Suns. This alignment between ticket count and handle suggests a consensus among both recreational bettors and sharper groups that Golden State’s road struggles will continue. We are riding with the majority here, as the market clearly sees the same defensive mismatch we identified earlier.

Total Betting

This is where the most significant divergence occurs between our handicap and the public sentiment. Despite the “Under” narrative supported by the venue trends and roster absences, the betting public is pounding the “Over” at a staggering rate.

• Over: 91.4% of tickets | 87.0% of money
• Under: 8.6% of tickets | 13.0% of money

With 91.4% of bets expecting a high-scoring affair, taking the Under (215.5) places us in a deeply contrarian position. It is rare to see such lopsided action on a total, especially with primary scorers sidelined. This creates a classic “fade the public” scenario, where the market may be overvaluing the pace of play while undervaluing the defensive grind Phoenix typically imposes at home.

Warriors vs Suns Statistical Breakdown

Warriors vs Suns Injury Report & Impact

Warriors Frontcourt and Backcourt Decimated

Golden State’s roster is depleted, which forces a complete reimaging of its offensive identity. Curry (knee) is the headline, removing the league’s most dangerous spacing threat. The situation is further complicated by the status of Kristaps Porziņģis, who was just acquired via trade from Atlanta. He is listed as Day-to-Day with an illness. If the versatile big man cannot go, Golden State — having just traded Jonathan Kuminga and Buddy Hield to acquire him — loses their best rim protector and floor-spacing center, leaving them vulnerable to Phoenix’s offensive rebounding attack.

Suns Waiting on Jalen Green

While Phoenix is without Devin Booker (ankle), their outlook hinges heavily on the final status of Jalen Green. Currently listed as Day-to-Day with a hip issue, Green’s availability is the swing factor for the Suns’ offense. If he suits up, he likely absorbs the bulk of Booker’s usage rate. If Green sits, the Suns will be forced to rely on a committee approach involving Dillon Brooks to generate points.

Warriors vs Suns Odds

Odds as of February 05, 2026 from consensus odds.

The oddsmakers have positioned the Suns as clear home favorites, requiring them to win by at least 7 points to cover the spread. The total of 215.5 indicates an expectation of a lower-scoring contest, aligning with the defensive identity Phoenix has established at home and the absence of primary offensive engines on both sides.

Implied Win Probabilities & Payouts

Based on the current moneyline odds, the implied vig-free win probabilities highlight the steep challenge facing the visiting Warriors:

• Phoenix Suns: 68.4% probability to win.
• Golden State Warriors: 31.6% probability to win.

For bettors looking to play the moneyline, the risk-reward profiles differ drastically. A $20 wager on the heavy favorite Phoenix Suns (-249) would return a profit of just $8.03 (total payout $28.03). Conversely, a $20 wager on the underdog Golden State Warriors (+204) would yield a profit of $40.80 (total payout $60.80) should they manage to pull off the road upset.

Line Movement Analysis

Comparing the current lines to the opening numbers reveals distinct market reactions to the injury reports and team trends.

• The Spread: The line opened with Phoenix as a -5.5 favorite but has since moved a full point to -6.5. This movement suggests that early money heavily backed the Suns, likely reacting to Golden State’s poor road form (3-7 ATS in their last 10) and the confirmed absence of Stephen Curry.
• The Total: The most dramatic movement has occurred on the total, which opened at 221.5 and has plummeted 6 points to 215.5. This massive adjustment is almost certainly a direct response to the confirmation that both Curry and Devin Booker are out. The market has corrected sharply to account for the missing offensive firepower, siding with the defensive struggle narrative rather than the initial projection of a higher-scoring affair.