Upcoming Match-ups

Wizards Keeping Wall & Beal After Trevor Ariza Deal?

Ryan Murphy

by Ryan Murphy in NBA Basketball

Dec 17, 2018 · 2:18 PM PST

John Wall and Bradley Beal
Will John Wall and Bradley Beal soon find themselves in different backcourts? Photo by Keith Allison (flickr).
  • The latest odds suggest that John Wall and Bradley Beal will remain with the Wizards until the New Year
  • Are the Wizards done dealing after acquiring Trevor Ariza from Phoenix?
  • Would Washington package Beal with Wall or Otto Porter in an effort to shed salary? 

It might be time to put those John Wall and Bradley Beal trade rumors to bed.

It’s looking increasingly unlikely the Wizards will trade their All-Star guards before January 1st according to the latest odds. Online sportsbooks have put the probability of the pair remaining in the nation’s capital until the New Year at -150. That’s noticeably better than a month ago, when the odds sat at -120.

Let’s take a look at both players’ odds and examine why they’re likely to remain in the District.

Odds John Wall is Traded By Jan. 1, 2019

Will John Wall Be Traded By Jan. 1, 2019? Odds on 11/20/18 Odds on 12/17/18
Yes -120 +110
No -120 -150

Not much has changed for John Wall since November 20th. The temperamental point guard is still on the verge of becoming one of the NBA’s best-paid players after agreeing to a four-year, $207 million contract extension that begins next season. That alone makes him virtually untradeable.

Wall’s recent injury history doesn’t help matters either. The 28-year-old missed 41 games last season after undergoing surgery on his left knee and has been plagued with chronic heel issues in 2018-19. His speed and explosiveness have been noticeably comprised at times this year, leading him to settle for more deep threes than at any point in his career. That’s a particularly troubling trend as Wall is a career 32% three-point shooter and is connecting on just 31% of his shots beyond the arc this season.

Wall is a career 32% three-point shooter and is connecting on just 31% of his shots beyond the arc this season.

There’s little doubt that the Wizards will listen to offers for Wall, but they would have to be willing to include draft picks and young players on reasonable contracts to sweeten the deal. That begs the question: who would the Wizards possibly throw in? The team squandered a major trade chip over the weekend when they sent Kelly Oubre to the Suns in exchange for ageing 3-and-D specialist Trevor Ariza. The trade was questionable at best and recklessly shortsighted at worst as the 23-year-old Oubre is making just $3.2 million this season and isn’t even close to reaching his ceiling.

Washington could include Otto Porter Jr., but few teams are lining up to take on an underachieving forward with a wonky knee who’s raking in $28 million a year.

For now, the smart money is on the Wizards keeping Wall until January 1st, but don’t be surprised if talks heat up again closer to the February 7th trade deadline if Ariza fails to turn Washington into a playoff contender.

Odds Bradley Beal is Traded By Jan. 1, 2019

Will John Wall Be Traded By Jan. 1, 2019? Odds on 11/20/18 Oddson 12/17/18
Yes -120 +110
No -120 -150

Unlike Wall, the market for Bradley Beal is remarkably robust. The 25-year-old sharp shooter is averaging career highs in points and rebounds and has already recorded five 30-point games. He looked particularly lethal on December 5th against the Hawks as he torched Atlanta for 30 points on 12 of 22 shooting from the floor.

It’s easy to understand why Beal’s name has popped up in trade rumors given Washington’s early struggles, but the Wizards would be foolish to give up on such a promising young player so early in his career. Beal has added new elements to his game in each of his seven years in DC and is becoming the kind of all-around talent that you can build a franchise around.

A few weeks ago it seemed plausible that the Wizards could trade Wall and Beal to the highest bidder and start again from scratch, but swapping Ariza for Oubre strongly suggests that they’re more focused on the present than the future.

Bank on Beal staying in the Nation’s Capital this season and beyond.

Author Image