- The 2019 March Madness futures continue to shift as conference play approaches.
- Bettors need to price-shop to get the best value.
- Learn which site has the best odds for which contender.
Every online betting site has Duke as the heavy favorite to win the 2019 national championship. But the Blue Devils’ odds are still significantly different from sportsbook to sportsbook.
The same can be said for many of the secondary contenders, as well, including Michigan State, UNC, and Tennessee. At Bovada and BetOnline, alone, there are drastic fluctuations.
Generally, BetOnline has better odds on the heaviest favorites, while Bovada has better odds on the next tier.
When it comes to winning longterm in the futures market, getting the best price is of the utmost importance. (In case you were unaware, the juice is usually huge on championship futures.)
Where to Find the Best 2019 March Madness Futures*
|Team||KenPom Rank||Odds via BetOnline||Odds at Bovada|
|Duke Blue Devils||1st||+225||+180|
|Michigan St. Spartans||4th||+1600||+2800|
|UNC Tar Heels||7th||+1600||+2300|
|Virginia Tech Hokies||8th||+4000||+7000|
|Florida St. Seminoles||17th||+4000||+5500|
|NC State Wolfpack||20th||+6600||+13500|
|TCU Horned Frogs||25th||+6600||+13000|
|St. John’s Red Storm||39th||+6600||+12500|
*Odds from Jan. 2, 2019
The Spartans Stand Out as Good Value
Michigan State is the only top-7 KenPom team that bettors can get at +2500 or better.
Sparty is 12-2 on the year, has a 5-1 record against other top-50 KenPom squads, and has a 21.7 average margin of victory during its current seven-game win streak.
Their big issue is depth. In November’s 82-78 OT loss at Louisville, point guard Cassius Winston fouled out with over four minutes to play. That forced freshman Foster Loyer to take over at the one, which didn’t go so well. In the final minutes of OT, Tom Izzo had two-guard Joshua Langford be the primary ball handler.
When Winston, an experienced junior, is on the court, the offense is elite. He has a 3.9-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and hits at a 45.7% clip from three. Given that he only averages 2.0 fouls per game, losing him for long stretches shouldn’t be a huge concern.
Plus, Loyer (a four-star recruit) will get better as the season progresses.
If you don’t like MSU’s chances of winning it all — Duke’s length and athleticism, especially down low, would certainly be a tough matchup — Bovada currently has a prop on making the Final Four, with Sparty at +700.
Keen to tell me why I’m wrong? There’s a Twitter for that.