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Boise State vs San Diego State Odds and Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Updated Feb 25, 2021 · 10:14 AM PST

Matt Mitchell San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State's Matt Mitchell drives past Fresno State's Orlando Robinson, left, during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Fresno, Calif., Thursday, Feb. 18, 2021. (AP Photo/Gary Kazanjian)
  • #22 San Diego State is a 6-point favorite over Boise State on Thursday (Feb. 25th, 9 pm EST)
  • The Aztecs have won eight straight, while the Broncos are riding a four-game winning streak of their own
  • See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction

The top two teams in the Mountain West clash on Thursday (Feb. 25th, 9 pm EST), as first place Boise State visits #22 San Diego State. The Aztecs (17-4, 11-3 Mountain West) enter play winners of eight straight, while the Broncos (18-4, 14-3 Mountain West) have put together a four-game winning streak of their own.

Boise State vs #22 San Diego State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Boise State Broncos +6.0 (-116) OFF Over 137.5 (-110)
San Diego State Aztecs -6.0 (-106) OFF Under 137.5 (-110)

Odds taken Feb. 24th at FanDuel.

Despite ranking behind Boise State in the conference standings, San Diego State opened up as a sizeable 6-point favorite in a game that features a total of 137.5.

The Broncos are currently projected to a be an 11-seed in next month’s NCAA Tournament, but need at least one win in their final two games (both against the Aztecs) to solidify their March Madness spot.

How Sweep It Is

Boise State is coming off a two-game sweep of Utah State, defeating the Aggies 81-77 as a 2-point favorite last Friday. Derrick Alston Jr. led the way with 23 points, eclipsing the 20-point mark for the 12th time this season.

The Senior guard is the only player in the Mountain West to rank inside league’s top-five in field goal percentage, 3-point shooting percentage and free throw percentage. He racked up 49 points over the two-game series against Utah State, earning him conference player of the week honours for the second time this season.

Abu Kigab added 19 against the Aggies, while Mladen Armus chipped in 13 points and 9 boards. The Broncos shot 53.7% versus Utah State and lead the Mountain West in points per game, while ranking second in field goal percentage, and third in 3-point efficiency.

Defensively, they rank third in the conference in points allowed, and have limited opponents to fewer than 70 points in 13 of 22 games.

Aztecs On Fire

San Diego State meanwhile, returns home after a two-game sweep of Fresno State. The beat the Bulldogs by 18 on Saturday, led by the red-hot shooting of Jordan Schakel.

The Senior guard poured in 14 against Fresno State, knocking down all four of his long distance looks. Leading scorer Matt Mitchell splashed 13, as did fellow Senior Terrell Gomez.

The Aztecs haven’t trailed in the second half in a single game during their winning streak, beating their opponents by an average of 26.4 points during that span.

They rank third in the Mountain West in points per game and field goal percentage, and are the conference’s number one shooting team from beyond the arc.

Defensively they’re even more impressive, leading the league in scoring defense and steals, while ranking third in opponent field goal percentage.

Most mock brackets have them penciled in as an 8 or 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but much like Boise State, that could change in a hurry should they falter down the stretch.

Bullish on the Broncos

At first glance, you might look at this and think it’s a layup. San Diego State is on fire so why not back them? However, if we look closer we’ll see that there is a lot of value on Boise State.

None of the Aztecs wins during their current streak have come against teams ranked inside the top-176, and four of the eight victories were against opponents ranked outside the top-300.

The Broncos meanwhile, just swept Utah State, ranked 53rd by KenPom’s efficiency metrics, and own wins over BYU and Colorado State, two top-75 programs.

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San Diego State is just 1-3 versus top-60 teams this season, and 5-6 ATS as a home favorite. Boise State on the other hand, is 3-1 ATS in its last four outings, and 2-0 ATS as a road underdog in 2020-21.

Pick: Boise State +6 (-116)

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