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LSU vs Arkansas Odds, Lines, and Spread

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Updated Dec 16, 2022 · 2:38 AM PST

Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas guard Jalen Tate (11) against Alabamas during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Fayetteville, Ark. Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)
  • #20 Arkansas is a 4.5-point home favorite versus visiting LSU on Saturday (Feb. 27th, 2 pm EST)
  • The Tigers defeated the Razorbacks 92-76 in their lone meeting this season
  • See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction

It’s a massive SEC showdown on Saturday, as #20 Arkansas hosts LSU at 2 pm EST. The Razorbacks (18-5, 10-4 SEC) enter play riding a five-game winning streak, while the Tigers (14-7, 9-5 SEC) had their three-game winning streak snapped last time out.

LSU vs #20 Arkansas Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
LSU Tigers +4.5 (-106) OFF Over 161.0 (-110)
Arkansas Razorbacks -4.5 (-116) OFF Under 161.0 (-110)

Odds taken Feb. 26th at FanDuel.

Arkansas opened up as a 4.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 161. The Razorbacks are fresh off a 15-point win over #6 Alabama, which marked the first time since 2016 that they’ve defeated a top-10 team.

Razorbacks Are For Real

The 81-66 victory was payback for a 31-point defeat to the Crimson Tide last month. Arkansas has lost just once since, and have reeled off back-to-back double digit wins over top-27 teams (Bama and Florida) in KenPom’s efficiency rankings.

Freshman Moses Moody led the way against the Tide with 22, while Justin Smith, J.D. Notae and Jalen Tate all joined him in double figures. The Razorbacks used a 17-2 run to blow the game open, shooting 46.3% from the field, and winning the rebounding and assist battle.

Defensively, Arkansas held Alabama to 37.7% from the field, forced 16 turnovers and blocked 11 shots. After struggling at that end of the court for most of the season, the Razorbacks have limited each of their last two opponents to 66 points or less, and are just four games removed from holding Mississippi State to 45 points.

Offensively, few teams are as potent as Arkansas. The Razorbacks rank 13th in the nation in points per game, averaging 82.4, and no team in the SEC gets to the line as frequently as they do.

Can LSU Rebound?

The Tigers meanwhile, delivered a disappointing effort at Georgia in their last outing. LSU fell 91-78 to the Bulldogs, digging themselves an early 22-point hole they couldn’t overcome.

Cameron Thomas led the way with 21, while JaVonte Smart added 19 and Trendon Watford poured in 13. The Tigers wound up shooting 40.3% from the field, but a 10-for-30 performance in the first half ultimately did them in. Prior to the matchup they were projected as an 8 or 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament but a few more ugly losses down the stretch could put their March Madness status in jeopardy.


Like the Razorbacks, LSU is one of the premier offensive teams in the nation, ranking 8th in points for (82.9), but a shoddy defense has held them back all season. The Tigers rank 10th out of 14 teams in the SEC in points allowed, seventh in opponent field goal percentage, and no program surrenders as many 3-pointers.

In order to compete with Arkansas, the offense must be dialed in, but the good news is they’ve been successful against the Razorbacks before.

An Encore Performance?

LSU smashed Arkansas 92-76 back on January 13th, shooting 52.3% from the field and getting 23 points from Watford and 17 from Thomas en route to victory.

YouTube video

All five starters reached double figures in that outing, and I like their chances for offensive success again on Saturday. The over is 3-1 in their last four contests and 6-2 in games outside of Baton Rouge this season.

The Razorbacks meanwhile, could be in for a bit of a letdown after such a big victory against Bama, and don’t have nearly as much at stake. Their NCAA Tournament spot is virtually locked in at the moment, which could create a lack of urgency. Arkansas is 5-8-1 ATS at home this season, and 7-8-1 as a favorite.

Picks: LSU +4.5 (-106), Over 161 (-110)

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