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Seton Hall vs Providence Picks and Odds

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Feb 2, 2021 · 6:00 PM PST

Shavar Reynolds Seten Hall Pirates
Seton Hall's Shavar Reynolds, Jr. (33) is defended by Providence's Maliek White (4) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Feb. 15, 2020, in Providence, R.I. (AP Photo/Stew Milne)
  • Seton Hall (9-8, 6-5 Big East) battles Providence (9-8, 5-6 Big East) on Wednesday, Feb. 3 at 7pm ET
  • The Friars beat the Pirates, 80-77, on the road in overtime when these teams met back in December
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

If Seton Hall and Providence play anything like they did in their December meeting, bettors are in for a treat on Wednesday, Feb. 3 when these teams meet at 7pm ET for their rematch. Providence won the first go-round in overtime, on the road, and are looking to get back to even in the Big East standings.

Seton Hall, meanwhile, surely wants revenge on the Friars — and to halt a three-game losing skid. Here’s a look at the odds:

Seton Hall vs Providence Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Seton Hall Pirates pk (-110) OFF Over 141 (-110)
Providence Friars pk (-110) OFF Under 141 (-110)

Odds as of Feb. 2nd.

How They’ve Fared Recently

Since conference play began — in which Seton Hall is 6-5 — the Pirates have mostly beaten the team they should have and lost to the one’s they should have, too. Their five conference losses include Providence (63rd in KenPom rankings; 80-77 overtime loss), #15 Creighton twice (89-53, 85-81) and #3 Villanova twice (76-74, 80-72).

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More on the Providence game later, but notice that four of those five losses were by awfully close margins. On the winning side of things, the Pirates have beaten only one KenPom top-50 team since Big East play began (Xavier, 44th), but their Big East wins have come by an average of 10 points.

Seton Hall is offensively strong (20th in NCAA Division I in adjusted offensive efficiency), but on defense they get burned by the 3-point shot (they’re allowing a 38.4% clip, 319th in D-I).

Fortunately for Seton Hall, Providence does not shoot the deep ball very well (32.5%, 212th in D-I). What the Friars are good at is protecting the basketball (48th in turnover rate), and they have a fairly strong offense overall (49th in adjusted offensive efficiency).

Providence lost a heartbreaker to Georgetown (111th in KenPom) last time out, holding the lead for nearly the whole game before losing by one in the final seconds. They have a win over Creighton, but they’ve lost to Xavier and Butler (both of whom Seton Hall beat).

ATS Analysis

Seton Hall is 10-7 against the spread, including 6-2 ATS on the road. They’ve failed to cover in their past two games (both at home), but they’re ATS winners in four of their past five road matchups. The Pirates have also seen the over hit three games in a row, each time by a margin of at least 10 points.

Providence is 8-9 ATS, with four ATS wins in six home games (including three straight wins at home). The Friars have failed to cover in two of their past three, and the over has only hit once in their past four.

Head-to-Head Matchup

Dating back to last season, these teams have played three times. Providence has won two of three straight up and ATS, including this year’s overtime winner at Seton Hall. All three recent games between these two hit the over.

Let’s home in on this year’s game, in which Providence won straight up as a 3.5-point underdog. Seton Hall needed to complete an and-one in the final 10 seconds of regulation, and then the teams were deadlocked at 77 for two and a half minutes in overtime before Providence sank a three with just a few seconds remaining.

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So yeah, this was a tight one. But one thing that sticks out is Providence’s uncharacteristically good 3-point shooting (9-of-18, 50%), which lifted them to victory. We figure that won’t happen this time, and that makes Seton Hall a worthwhile bet to exact revenge.

Pick: Seton Hall pk (-110)

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