Upcoming Match-ups

Toledo vs Buffalo Picks and Odds

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Updated Feb 19, 2021 · 6:54 PM PST

Marreon Jackson Toledo Rockets
Toledo guard Marreon Jackson plays against Michigan in the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2020. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
  • Buffalo is a 1.5-point home favorite over Toledo on Friday (Feb. 19th, 9 pm EST)
  • The Bulls have won three straight, all by 20+ points
  • See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction

The top-two scoring teams in the MAC clash on Friday as Toledo (17-6, 12-3 MAC) visits Buffalo (9-6, 7-4 MAC). The Rockets, the conference’s top team, snapped a two-game losing streak last time out, while the Bulls won for the third straight time in their previous outing.

Toledo vs Buffalo Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Toledo Rockets +1.5 (-110) OFF Over 160.0 (-110)
Buffalo Bulls -1.5 (-110) OFF Under 160.0 (-110)

Odds taken Feb. 18th.

Buffalo opened as a 1.5-point favorite in a game that features a total of 160. The over/under is fitting given the quality of both of these offenses, as each program averages north of 80 points per game.

Toledo Rocks Miami

The Rockets’ MAC-best offense was on full display in their last contest, an 87-75 victory over Miami (OH). Marreon Jackson led the way with a triple-double, pouring in 18 points, while dishing out 11 assists and grabbing 10 boards.

Spencer Littleson splashed 25, while Ryan Rollins chipped in 12 points. Toledo shot 49.1% from the field, and 44.1% from beyond the arc, jumping out to a 25-point lead and never looking back.

The Rockets are in line for a March Madness berth for the first time since 1979, and should they capture the MAC crown, they could potentially draw a favorable first round matchup.

In addition to leading the conference in scoring, they also rank first in field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage, and second in assists.

Defensively however, is where they are vulnerable. They allow the sixth most points in the MAC, and have surrendered at least 75 points in four of their last five games.

Bullying the Competition

The Bulls meanwhile, picked up their third straight victory by at least 20 points last week, destroying Western Michigan 86-54. Jaylon Graves carried the offense with 16 points, while Josh Mballa racked up 13 points and 12 boards, and four other Buffalo players reached double figures.

The Bulls shot 46.5% from the field, dominated on the glass by a total of 49-32, and won the assist battle by eight. They held the Broncos to 34.6% from the field and forced a whopping 19 turnovers. No MAC defense allows a lower field goal percentage to enemy shooters than Buffalo, and they also rank first in blocks and steals.

A big reason for their impressive defensive numbers however, is a lack of quality opponents. They’ve played just two teams ranked inside the top-105 all season, and surrendered 84 and 107 points in those contests.

Offense is where their bread is buttered, as they rank second in the conference in points per game, third in shooting percentage and first in offensive rebounding.

A High-Scoring Affair On Deck

The Rockets will be one of the best teams the Bulls have faced all season, and if their previous two games against top-105 programs are any indication, this will be another high-scoring affair. The Over is 9-5 in Buffalo games so far, and 7-4 versus MAC opponents.

11 of Toledo’s 15 conference games have eclipsed the total, including eight of 10 on the road. The over is 4-0 in games where they’re an underdog, and their outings have a pretty strong record of going north of the total, even when the over/under is set on the high side. In games with a total of at least 150, six of the Rockets’ seven contests have gone over, beating the number by an average of 10.5 points.

Pick: Over 160 (-110)

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